Florida State returns to action after a much-needed bye week as it hosts the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday night. It’s Homecoming for Seminoles as they try to snap a four-game losing streak, but this isn’t any old Wake Forest team. The Deacs are coming in with a 5-2 record and on a three-game winning streak.
Despite the difference in records, FSU is still a 9.5-point favorite at home. First-year head coach Jake Dickert came over from Washington State and brought in 35 transfers to flip the roster. He’s off to a solid start and has the Deacs in position to make a bowl game in year one. They upset SMU without their starting quarterback last week and took Georgia Tech to overtime in a game they should have won earlier this season.
This will not be a gimme win for FSU. The Noles will be at home under the lights in Doak, but it could be a light showing given the results of the season. FSU needs this win in the worst way. Let’s look at what Wake will bring to Tallahassee on Saturday.
Goodbye, slow mesh. Hello, power spread. It’s a new era in Winston-Salem since Dave Clawon announced his retirement. The Deacs will feature a lot of play-action and outside zone runs. In fact, 63.5% of their rushing yards have come outside the tackles. It will be critical for FSU’s defenders to tackle in space.
Wake’s offense hasn’t faced the toughest slate of defenses this season, but it has been effective, just not necessarily special. They currently average 26.7 points per game.
They rely on a solid ground game led by a talented running back in Demond Claiborne. He has racked up 500 yards in each of the past three seasons and crossed the 1k-yard mark last year. He’s currently averaging an impressive 6.65 YPC. The Deacs average 149 rush yards per game (77th) and rank 60th in rushing touchdowns with 13.
The pass game hasn’t been their strong point. They do throw for 245 yards per game, which ranks 59th, but are 107th in passing touchdowns with only 8, and 125th in completion percentage (56.4%). There is some uncertainty around the quarterback position as starter Robby Ashford has missed most of the past two games with a hand injury.
Ashford started his career with Oregon, where he did not play. He then transferred to Auburn, where he started 9 games, and then to South Carolina, where he started 1 game, and now to Wake Forest. He’s not a prolific passer, but he is experienced and mobile. Out of 18 ACC quarterbacks that met our snap count criteria, Ashford ranks: 15th in Pass Grade, 16th in QBR, 10th in Yards Per Attempt, 16th in Completion Percentage, 18th in Passing Touchdowns, and has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage.
His numbers on the season are 59/163 (58.3%), 1.205 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He is not the best passer that FSU has seen so far, but he is one of the more mobile quarterbacks they will have faced. He has 59 attempts for 228 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground in 5 games. Ashford ran for 850 yards at Auburn in 2022.
A couple of notes when scouting Ashford are that he struggles the most at short throws between 0-9 yards. His completion percentage in that range is only 51.1%. Wake throws behind the line of scrimmage more than most teams I’ve seen, at 30.7% of attempts. Ashford has also been much worse under pressure if FSU can get to him. However, the Deacs’ offensive line, combined with Ashford’s mobility, has been solid in pass protection. They currently rank in the top 20 in pass block efficiency and sacks allowed.
If Ashford does not play, it will likely be Charlotte transfer Deshawn Purdie. He’s a bigger, less mobile quarterback at 6-foot-4, 228 pounds. Purdie started 6 games at Charlotte last year before transferring. His first start was against a terrible Oregon State team (1-7), where he threw for 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Things did not go as well in his second start against SMU. Purdie did not throw a touchdown pass, had 2 interceptions, and fumbled 3 times.
It’s unclear who will be the starter at the time of writing this, but so far, Ashford has been the better of the two. They do like to spread the ball around in the pass game, with 4 Wake receivers logging over 200 yards this season. They are led by freshman Chris Barnes, who has 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.
FSU has faced some good offenses this season and hasn’t fared well against them, but Wake’s offense is not unstoppable. They have only scored over 30 points once this season, against an FBS opponent, and it was against a terrible Oregon State defense. If they can keep Wake under 30, I like FSU’s chances.
Under Dave Clawson, Wake Forest was typically led by a high-powered offense with a defense that just had to do enough. Since Jake Dickert took over, Wake’s identity this season has been a strong defense with an offense that has done enough. They don’t have many high-end athletes, but they are well-coached and play hard. Wake likes to bring pressure, and the numbers have increased as the season progresses. They have blitzed over 40% of the time in the past three games.
As with the offense, they haven’t faced the toughest competition, either. Wake’s defense has faced just one top 25 scoring offense and only 2 in the top 50. Still, they have done their job, allowing just 18.9 PPG (26th). The strength of their defense is against the pass. They currently rank 20th in passing yards allowed per game (180), 1st in yards per attempt (4.8), 11th in passing touchdowns allowed (6), and 6th in passer rating allowed, despite facing the 26th most passing attempts.
They have a legitimate pass defense, but thankfully, that is not the strength of a Gus Malzahn offense. As odd as it may sound, the more yards Tommy throws for the worse the team’s record is. With that said, that means they will need to run the ball effectively. Wake’s rush defense is not bad either, though. They currently rank 49th in yards per game allowed (131.6), 21st in rushing touchdowns allowed (7), and 34th in yards per carry. FSU will have its work cut out against a balanced defense.
Wake has struggled to get to the quarterback, creating just 14 sacks (81st). They have been bad in the red zone, ranking 102nd with opponents scoring on 88.5% of trips. They have, however, been good at limiting explosive plays. Wake ranks 4th in the country in plays of over 20 yards allowed.
FSU has some questions at quarterback as well. Tommy Castellanos was already dealing with an injured ankle, but he also took a brutal hit 2 weeks ago vs. Stanford. Coach Mike Norvell stated he would not have been able to play if the game had been last week. They said he is on track to play, but I would not be surprised if we saw freshman Kevin Sperry start on Saturday night. Wake’s defense has not allowed over 30 points this season (NCST scored 34, but one touchdown was on a pick 6). I’d feel much better about a win if they hit the 30-point mark.
Both teams enter this game with questions at quarterback, which creates uncertainty. Thankfully, FSU had a bye week to get healthy and work on itself. We need guys like Micah Pettus, Squirrel White, and Randy Pittman to be healthy, especially if Tommy is not. FSU might have a talent edge on paper, but right now, Wake is playing better, and their record shows it.
I’m finding it hard to find a reason to keep picking FSU to win, but one thing I do like in this game is the way the two teams match up. This was something I did not like in the past two games. Wake’s strength on offense is the run game, and its pass game is the weakness. FSU’s pass coverage has been a glaring weakness this season, but they have been good against the run more often than not.
On the other side of the ball, Wake’s strength is its pass defense, and FSU’s strength is its rush offense. This is the one thing that gives me a little confidence going into this game. Being at home will also help, and when you are as desperate as FSU is for a win, you’ll take every advantage you can get.
My keys are: 1) Establish the run. FSU cannot rely on Tommy or Sperry to throw the ball 35 times against a good pass defense. If they can establish the run and do enough in the pass game like they did against Alabama, that would be very beneficial for the offense. 2) Make them throw the ball. Wake has struggled to throw the ball effectively. FSU did a good job stopping Miami on the ground, but they got burned on the backend in doing so. Wake doesn’t have that type of pass offense. Make them use their weakness to win. 3) Score 30 points. Wake has only scored over 30 once this season, against an FBS team, and it was a terrible one. If the FSU defense can hold them under 30, I think it gives a good chance to win. However, the Wake defense has yet to allow over 30 points, so scoring 30 will be easier said than done for the FSU offense.
This is a game that FSU can and should win; unfortunately, I’m not sure they do. FSU has regressed each week, whereas Wake has improved throughout the season. It pains me to pick against FSU, but right now, they just haven’t given me enough reason to do otherwise. I hope I’m wrong, but I think Wake is the better team right now and upsets FSU 27-20. I will add the caveat that if Ashford is out and Deshawn Purdie starts, I’ll take FSU, but that could go sideways if Kevin Sperry starts. I do like Sperry, though, and I think it’s time to see what he has for next year. Thanks for reading, and Go Noles!
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