Florida State vs Virginia Tech. A battle between two storied programs that have fallen on tough times. These two have met in conference title games and a national championship game, but this chapter feels a little bit different with the Noles rolling in at 4-5 and the Hokies at 3-6. Virginia Tech fired its coach a month into the season and is operating with interim head coach Philip Montgomery (offensive coordinator) at the helm. Of course, we also know that Florida State’s Mike Norvell is also sitting on a scorching hot seat himself.
The Noles are a 13.5-point favorite over the Hokies in their final game in Doak Campbell Stadium this season. The game will take place under the lights with a 7:30 pm kickoff and air on ACC Network. FSU holds a 24-13-1 lead in the series and won the last and only meeting during Mike Norvell’s tenure in 2023.
One thing to note about this VT team is that, despite the record, they are still playing hard. Since the firing of former head coach Brent Pry, VT has won three games, including upsetting NCST in Raleigh, and has not lost by more than 15 points despite playing teams like Georgia Tech and Louisville. They are a little short-handed after a handful of players opted out after the coaching change. This is a game FSU “should” win, and they have been better at home considering they are 4-2 with the two losses against good teams, but FSU has been inconsistent, and this VT team is going to make them earn a win. The Hokies are coming off a bye week, so they have had an extra week to prepare.
The offense is interesting when examining the box scores. On the one hand, they have not scored over 30 points in regulation vs an FBS team this season. On the other hand, they have only been held under 20 points twice. They currently rank 89th in scoring offense, averaging 24.3 points per game (22.1 vs Power 4).
Like FSU, the Hokies’ strength is their ground game, which they like to lean on. When I recorded a podcast with a VT media member this week, he said he wanted to see them hit about 40 carries if they hope to have a chance at winning this game. Their rushing offense currently ranks 41st in the country, averaging 182 yards per game.
They do rank 33rd in yards per carry at 4.86; however, they are 103rd in rushing touchdowns, and Kyron Drones has the majority of those at quarterback. The two backs to know are Marcellous Hawkins (98 ATT | 576 YDS (5.9 YPC) | 1 TD) and Terion Stewart (63 ATT | 395 YDS (6.3 YPC) | 0 TD). Hawkins is more of the homerun threat, whereas Stewart is the bruiser.
Veteran dual-threat quarterback Kyron Drones leads a passing offense that has been struggling. They rank 115th averaging 177 yards per game. They are 117th in completion percentage and 63rd in passing touchdowns. Drones has not thrown for over 200 yards in the past five games, including just 76 yards against Louisville in his last outing. Drones can hurt you with his legs as he is the second-leading rusher on the team with almost 500 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, the story of Drones’ career has been inconsistency as a passer, which, in fairness, some of that was due to playing through injury.
He has 1,592 passing yards this season with a 58.5% completion percentage and 15 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. Drones ranks 85th in QBR and has been sacked 20 times. He stands behind an offensive line that ranks 128th in Pass Block Efficiency per PFF. His leading receiver is Aiden Green, who has 24 receptions for 382 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he has had 3 games with under 30 yards, and even the VT guy told me he is the best receiver in a bad passing offense.
The Hokie offense has not faced a scoring defense that ranks in the top 30 this season, and FSU ranks 34th, so it will be one of the toughest tests, and FSU’s defense has been playing better the past few weeks. Ja’Bril Rawls being out for this game is a big loss for the secondary, but I like the way we match up. FSU has held 5 teams under 100 yards rushing this season, including the past two games against Wake and Clemson.
The problem against Miami and Clemson was that FSU held the run in check, but got burned in the pass game. Thankfully, VT doesn’t have a very good passing offense, so FSU can afford to be aggressive against the run. I like FSU to be able to keep them near the 20-point mark. Most of the VT people I talked to who cover the team said their biggest concern in this game is that they just won’t be able to score enough points.
When I think of Virginia Tech, I think of defense, Bud Foster, and the lunch pail, just like Mickey Andrews at FSU. Unfortunately, for the Hokies, those days are gone. Tech’s defense ranks 102nd in scoring defense, allowing 29.7 points per game (30.9 vs Power 4 teams). They have allowed 21 points against every FBS opponent this season. So, in theory, we should feel good about FSU scoring over 21 to about the 31-point range, and the Noles currently average 26.7 PPG vs Power 4 opponents.
The Hokies are pretty balanced against the run and the pass, ranking 73rd and 71st, respectively. The pass defense allows an average of 221 yards per game, but they are 124th in completion percentage allowed and 105th in yards per attempt. The secondary is one of the areas that VT was hit by opt-outs and has struggled this season. The VT guys told me their pass defense in the red zone has been terrible. FSU “should” be able to throw against them, but the tricky thing is, you don’t want them to… well, kind of.
The stat of the season for FSU is Tommy Castellanos’ passing attempts. This one stat would seem to decide the game for FSU. In FSU’s four wins, Castellanos has averaged 13.5 passing attempts per game and has not thrown more than 20 times in any of the games. In FSU’s five losses, Castellanos has averaged 34.2 attempts per game and thrown it more than 20 times in every game. FSU needs to do enough on the ground to allow Tommy to throw it about 15 to 18 times and no more.
When it comes to the ground game, the Hokies’ rush defense allows an average of 153 yards per game vs Power 4 opponents, and FSU’s average is 168, but they also rank 121st in rushing touchdowns allowed with 20. This is another matchup that I think favors the Noles in this game. If the Noles can get the ground game going and rush for over 150 yards and a couple of touchdowns, that should take the pressure off the passing game. Their passing defense isn’t special, so FSU should be able to hit a few shots to help open up the run game. It’s a two-fold scenario, where if both hit, it will put FSU in a good place to win.
Some other areas to note for the Tech defense are that they have struggled in the red zone, ranking 134th, allowing scores on 97% of trips, including 24 touchdowns to 9 field goals. The Noles have been good in the red zone, scoring on 86% of trips with 30 touchdowns to 7 field goals. The Hokies have also struggled at creating turnovers, ranking 96th, and giving up explosive plays over 20 yards, ranking 106th. One area that they have been decent at is creating pressure. The Hokies have generated 18 sacks, which ranks 67th. The Tech guys told me that when they can create pressure, that is when their defense is at its best. They also told me that they did not have any opt-outs at defensive tackle, so the interior unit is the strength of the defense.
Two more things worth mentioning as we get into my final thoughts and prediction. First, the Hokies rank 106th in penalties per game at 7.2. Second, Tommy Castellanos has a bad history against Virginia Tech. In fairness, he’s a year more mature as a quarterback and on a completely different team. However, in the past 2 meetings, he’s turned the ball over 5 times in 2 blowout losses. We heard the same thing about his history against Virginia, and while he did not have a terrible game in Charlottesville, the Noles did lose to put Tommy at 1-2 vs the Hoos. Hopefully, he has better luck against the Hokies in this meeting.
My three keys are 1) Keep Tommy under 20 attempts. The stat I referenced above speaks for itself. This means establishing the run. 2) Play a clean game. I say this every week, and FSU rarely follows through. The 35-point blowout win and the disappointing loss at Clemson are two examples of how important this is. The Hokies are 98th in turnover margin and 106th in penalties per game. Let them make the mistakes and beat themselves. 3) Bring the energy. This is FSU’s final game of the season in Doak. It’s senior night and under the lights. This game will be far from a sellout, but there might be a decent crowd, being the last game and a night game. We saw a level of energy and focus against Wake that we hadn’t seen in a while. I don’t think this team has quit, but they have looked flat on occasion. FSU needs to wake up and play like they want this win.
When we boil it all down, this is a game FSU should win. Both teams have been struggling, but FSU (unfortunately) has a head coach, no opt-outs, and is at home. I like the way the matchups line up for FSU. What makes me nervous is that FSU has been very inconsistent and has only won two ACC games in the past two years. If this game were on the road, I’d probably pick Virginia Tech to win because FSU hasn’t won a road game in two years.
However, given that this game is at Doak, where FSU has played much better, I do think the Noles get the win, but VT covers. Give me FSU 31, VT 21. Even a close win would be big for an FSU team that needs to win two of the final three games to reach eligibility. No one knows when or if Mike Norvell will be fired, but it feels like losing to a 3-6 Virginia Tech team at home under an interim staff would be another fireable offense. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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