Florida State has gotten off to a great start this season. They opened with a big win over Alabama and have feasted on cupcakes the past two games. However, desert time is over as the Seminoles have another test on the menu this Friday night when they travel to Charlottesville to face a solid UVA squad.
This will be Florida State’s first road game, first night game, and first ACC game. As if FSU fans didn’t already hate non-Saturday games, it also happens to fall on the 35th anniversary of UVA handing FSU its first-ever ACC loss. This has “trap game” written all over it, being the week before a massive game against Miami. However, this FSU team has been focused all season and played at a high level no matter the opponent. I’m sure they understand the challenge in front of them and will be ready for the occasion.
The Cavaliers enter this game at 3-1 and are one interception in the end zone against NC State away from potentially being 4-0. They are playing well and have built confidence with quarterback Chandler Morris leading a high-powered offense. However, they have not faced a challenge like they will on Friday when eighth-ranked FSU comes to town. UVA has faced Coastal Carolina (W 48-7), NCST (L 35-31), FCS William & Mary (W 55-16), and Stanford (W 48-20). Can the Hoos rekindle the magic of 1995 and knock off a top 10 FSU team, or is it the Seminoles’ turn to rewrite history?
Virginia’s offense has gotten off to a hot start, led by transfer quarterback Chandler Morris. The sixth-year senior has played a lot of football throughout his career. Now at his fourth school, Morris has started 29 games. He has shown good command of the offense with the ability to hurt teams with his arm and his mobility. Virginia runs a shotgun spread offense and brings a balanced attack with 50.5% run plays and 49.5% pass plays. They will use tempo on occasion to push the pace, but not as often as a Gus Malzahn offense.
They like to find space, get the ball out quickly, and attack soft spots in coverage. They will also take shots vertically, and Morris has been effective at pushing the ball downfield. Although almost 60% of his passes are under 10 yards, he loves the 10-19-yard range and is top 5 in completion percentage on throws over 20 yards.
So far this season, they have run the ball well, averaging over 250 yards per game, which forces the defense to load the box, opening up the pass game. FSU DC Tony White spoke about the challenge of handling that kind of attack in his weekly press conference.
Morris is the engine that makes this offense go. He’s one of only 25 FBS quarterbacks who have already thrown for over 1,000 yards. He ranks in the top 25 in PFF Pass Grade, completion percentage, passing touchdowns, passing yards, and QBR. The point is, Morris is legit and one of the better quarterbacks FSU will face this season.
However, he has faced the 120th and 133rd-ranked passing defenses at the Power level (NCST & Stanford), so how “real” are those numbers, and how will he perform against a good defense? He’s only thrown one interception, but in the past two years, he has had 7 games (out of 19) with double-digit turnovers. FSU could benefit from a few takeaways in this game to keep that offense on the sideline.
Morris is also a capable runner. He has 14 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown, but is averaging 9.1 yards per carry. Perhaps the bigger factor with his legs is his ability to escape pressure and make something out of what would have been a broken play. Morris has been pressured 32 times this season but has only taken one sack. FSU can’t let him sit back there and pick the defense apart, but they also must be cautious not to lose contain.
Running back J’Mari Taylor leads UVA in the ground game with 48 carries for 298 yards and 6 touchdowns. He runs hard and falls forward. Although it was against struggling defenses, Taylor has put up an impressive 7.25 YPC against the Power 4 defenses he’s faced. FSU will have its hands full stopping UVA’s rush attack. The Cavaliers have rushed for over 200 yards against both Power 4 defenses they have faced. However, remember FSU held Alabama to just 87 rushing yards in week 1. This will be a critical aspect for FSU as Tony Elliot’s UVA teams are just 2-22 when held under 150 yards rushing. They are 13-5 when topping that mark.
The Cavaliers have two main pass catchers to know about. Number 11 Trell Harris and number 6 Cam Ross. Harris leads in yards (321) and touchdowns (3). He has an impressive 81.8 reception percentage and zero drops on 22 targets. Ross, who primarily works from the slot, leads in receptions with 19. Two other names to know are Jahmal Edrine, who is 6-foot-3, 221 pounds, and gives them a big body on the outside. Clemson transfer tight end Sage Ennis hasn’t seen a lot of targets, but he’s made the most of them with 2 touchdowns on 4 receptions.
Virginia’s offensive line is good, but not great. I don’t think they are better than Alabama’s offensive line, and outside of the first drive of the game, FSU’s defensive front terrorized them for 3.5 quarters. They are helped by Morris’s ability to evade pressure. They rank 21st in Pass Block Efficiency, have only allowed 1 sac,k and paved the way for a rushing offense that averages 5.95 YPC.
It is worth noting that the right side of their offensive line has been considerably worse than the left when looking at pressure numbers, PFF grades, and penalties. UVA also might be without its veteran starting center, who is listed as day-to-day after suffering a lower leg injury against Stanford.
All in all, this is a good offense, but they have faced some pretty bad defenses. Both Stanford and NC State are ranked outside of the top 100 in scoring defense, and FSU will bring the 12th-ranked defense to Charlottesville on Friday night. Is this a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object? We’ve only seen FSU face one good offense this season (Alabama), and they held them to 341 yards and 17 points.
The question is, do we think that Virginia’s offense in game 5 at home is better than Alabama’s offense on the road in game one? If so, then by how much? If FSU held Bama under 20, it feels like they should be able to do the same against UVA, and if they do, I like our chances. If they hold them under 30, with a struggling defense, FSU could win a shootout.
Virginia’s defense is where the opportunity lies in this game. They have not been as good as the offense, and it hasn’t been against the best offenses either. They primarily run a 4-2-5 with a lot of two-high safety looks. They tend to give up a lot of space in coverage, and from what I saw on film, they will struggle to match the speed FSU has at receiver. They have allowed 27.5 points per game vs Power 4 offenses, and those were ranked 63rd and 118th. FSU is bringing the number one offense in the country to town on Friday night.
My thought is that if FSU put up 31 points on Alabama’s 27th-ranked defense, what will they be able to do against UVA’s 48th-ranked defense? The Cavs have allowed 6.3 yards per play against Power 4 teams this season, including 7.2 yards per play against NCST. FSU averaged 6.1 vs Bama, who later held Wisconsin to just 4.1. Wisconsin’s offense is not great, but statistically, it’s been better than Stanford’s, which put up 20 points on UVA.
UVA brought pressure about 35% of the time vs NCST and Stanford. They sacked the Stanford quarterback 5 times (they are 112th in sacks allowed), but did not record a single sack vs the Wolf Pack. So far this season, UVA has forced 4 turnovers (3 fumbles and 1 interception). One area where they have excelled is third-down defense. The Cavs have only allowed 10 conversions on 48 attempts, so this will be a critical down for FSU. In the red zone, they have allowed 7 scores on 8 drives (6 touchdowns and 1 field goal). FSU has been lethal in the red zone, scoring on 15 of 16 attempts with 14 touchdowns and 1 field goal.
The UVA secondary is the glaring weakness on this defense. Every starting defensive back, apart from their strong safety, has allowed an over 60% completion percentage. The explosive plays they have given up have come primarily in the passing game. We know FSU likes to run the ball under OC Gus Malzahn, but Tommy Castellanos has excelled at pushing the ball downfield. If UVA decides to load the box to stop the run, they are playing with fire because their secondary has yet to prove they can hold up on the back end. It’s also worth noting their kicker is 7/10 on field goals, but 1/3 on kicks over 40 yards.
Virginia has all the “juju” in this game, and the pressure to win is on Florida State. I think UVA will be ready to play, but so will FSU. We heard both coordinators speak on the challenge UVA poses, so I don’t think they will fall for the look-ahead with Miami coming to town next week.
UVA put up over 500 yards, rushed for over 200 yards, and scored over 30 points vs. both Power 4 defenses they have faced, but those defenses are also ranked outside the top 100. This is a good offense, but FSU will be the best defense they have faced. FSU only allowed 341 yards and 17 points against Bama. I know it was game one for Bama vs game 5 for UVA, but do we believe this offense is that much better than Bama’s?
Their defense has struggled so far and has only faced one decent offense. If NCST can score 35 and FSU scored 31 on Bama’s defense, which I’m confident is better than UVA’s, there’s no reason FSU shouldn’t be able to score 30+ in this one, and I would be the least bit surprised if they got into the 40s.
●Keys to victory
•Play a clean game. First one on the road against a solid team. We can’t gift them opportunities or shoot ourselves in the foot.
•Get pressure on Morris. You can’t let him sit back there and pick you apart, but be careful that you don’t lose contain and let him hurt you with his legs. We need James Williams to finally show up.
•Throw the ball. I know Gus likes to run, and I’m sure they will, but their secondary is a weakness that we can exploit. Plus, it’ll open up the run.
FSU’s starters have only played about 4 quarters in the past 3 weeks, so they should be fresh, and they are getting Squirrel White, Randy Pittman, and Kevin Wynn back; this team is as healthy as it’s been all season. UVA is dealing with a lot of injuries on the offensive line, and their starting center is questionable for this game. I think FSU’s depth, speed, and defense are the difference. I’ll take FSU to win and cover with a score of FSU 38 – UVA 24. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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