Florida State baseball punched its ticket to a record-setting 19th Super Regional on Sunday by completing a sweep of the Tallahassee Regional. Hopefully, the Noles packed a lunch, because that ticket will take them 2,800 miles across the country to Corvallis for a matchup against the No. 8 national seed Oregon State Beavers.
FSU is no stranger to long trips as it’s already made the trip out west to face Cal earlier this season. However, according to Eric Luallen, this will be the furthest FSU baseball has traveled since a trip to Hawaii in 2005. It will also be the first time these two programs have faced each other. Can the Noles take care of business far from the comforts of home? That’s exactly what they hope to do on their quest back to Omaha, but it won’t come easy as the Beavs are a solid squad that’s as hot as any team in the country right now.
When we look across the stat sheet, these two programs almost mirror each other with FSU holding a slight advantage on offense and Oregon State having a slight advantage on defense, but the gaps between them are minimal.
BATTING AVG.
Team ERA
Fielding Percentage
On Base Percentage
Scoring (Runs Per Game)
Runs Allowed Per Game
Avg. Scoring Margin
Hits Per Game
Hits Per Game Allowed
Home Runs
FSU has played a slightly tougher schedule to get here with a strength of schedule ranking at 23rd compared to Oregon State at 39th. Both teams have played 10 games against ranked opponents and hold a 4-6 record against them. FSU has played 23 quad-1 games with a 13-10 record whereas the Beavs have played 21 quad-1 games with a 10-11 record.
Perhaps the number that concerns me the most is Oregon State’s 21-3 record at home which extends to 48-5 over the past two years. The Noles are 12-6 on the road this season and must travel 2,800 miles to try and hand Oregon State two losses in a place they have only lost five games in two years.
However, there is one thing I want to mention about that home record. Oregon State went 17-2 at home during the regular season but only played two teams that ranked in the top 50 in RPI. One of those was UC Irvine (#22 in RPI – #23 in D1 Baseball), and while Oregon State did win the series, they dropped game one 12-0. They also played Oregon (#20 in RPI – #5 in D1 Baseball) and lost 8-4.
FSU will be their toughest test at home this season. The Noles are ranked 9th in RPI and Oregon State has only faced one other team ranked in the top 10 (Auburn at a neutral site) and lost. If we expand to teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI and include regional play, that number jumps to 6 teams, and in those games, Oregon State is just 4-7.
To be fair, FSU has only played 3 teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI (UF, Clemson, and UNC) and is 4-6 against them. The point was to show that Oregon State hasn’t gone unblemished against the better competition they’ve faced at home or on the road. It also reminds us that FSU needs to rise to the occasion and look like they did against Clemson rather than UNC.
As for home-field advantage, Goss Stadium set an attendance record of 4,368 last weekend, which is on par with most of the stadiums FSU plays in, so the crowd factor shouldn’t be anything they aren’t used to. Hopefully, some of our West Coast Nole family will be in attendance to make noise for the away team.
Oregon State was awarded the number 8 national seed after putting together a 41-12-1 record as an independent. This is their fourth consecutive season with 40+ wins. After losing the first game of their regional to St. Mary’s 4-6. The Beavs battled back to win four in a row (7-2 vs TCU – 20-3 vs. St. Mary’s – 14-1 vs USC and 9-0 vs. USC) to clinch their Super Regional berth. Despite the opening loss, the Beavs became one of the hottest teams in the country outscoring their opponents 50-6 in the final four games of the regional.
Florida State holds a statistical edge over the Beavs in most offensive categories but their offensive explosion in the final four games of the regional shows how potent this lineup can be. Oregon State has 5 batters with double-digit at-bats hitting over .300.
The Beavs offense is led by a pair of juniors, Aiva Arquette and Gavin Turley. Both players have an average of .352 with 18 home runs. Arquette carries a slight lead over Turley with a team-leading 80 hits (Turley has 77) and 65 RBI (Turley has 64). However, one name to watch has been sophomore third baseman Trent Caraway.
Throughout the Corvallis Regional, Caraway hit .529 with 5 home runs (one in every game), drew 7 walks, drove in 10 RBI, and scored 9 runs. The Noles pitching staff need to bring their A-game because Oregon State has the weapons to make you pay if you don’t. Easton Talt leads the team in stolen bases with 10 on 13 attempts while Arquette is second with 6 on 7 attempts.
One of the Beavs’ biggest strengths is the depth of their pitching staff. They have 6 pitchers with at least 40 innings of work and 5 of them have at least 50 strikeouts (For reference, FSU has 3). Their workhorse is LHP Ethan Kleinschmit who has put in 80.1 innings including a 7.2-inning performance against St. Mary’s in the regional. Kleinschmit is 8-3 in 15 appearances with a 3.70 ERA. He has punched out 95 batters while walking 30.
Perhaps their most electric pitcher is freshman right-hander Dax Whitney. He’s thrown 66.2 innings racking up 101 strikeouts to only 33 walks earning him a 6-3 record with a 3.78 ERA. I would expect those two to be first up against FSU with Wyatt Queen (44.1 IP – 3.25 ERA – 3-1 W/L) or Eric Segura (54.1 IP – 4.47 ERA – 8-2 W/L) likely to be in the mix or starting game three if necessary. The Beavs have a solid defensive unit behind them ranking top 10 in fielding percentage.
There is also the possibility that FSU saves Jamie Arnold for the Saturday night game to give him an extra day of rest and keep the same rotation as the regional. With Volini only throwing 46 pitches last Friday due to the weather delay against Bethune-Cookman, this would make a lot of sense. So these could go out of order, but it shows you some projected matchups. The pitching rotations have yet to be released.
Oregon State is a solid, well-coached program that plays great at home under head coach Mitch Canham. My biggest concern with this series is the travel aspect and knowing that Oregon State, like most teams, plays better at home. But this series is winnable for FSU if they stay hot.
A few things I think will be key for FSU to win the Super Regional and punch its ticket to Omaha.
1) Win with Jamie Arnold. There are a lot of good teams across the country, but few have an Ace like Arnold. FSU needs to capitalize on his arm and snag a win when he’s on the mound.
2) Long outings by the pitching staff. Both Arnold and Mendes threw triple-digit pitches in the regional. FSU’s bullpen put up 9 scoreless innings last weekend, which was great to see, but inconsistency has been an issue. If FSU can limit the use of its bullpen by getting 6-7 innings from its starters, that would be ideal.
3) Stop stranding so many base runners. During the final game against Mississippi State, FSU trailed 2-0 through most of the game. By the 5th inning, they had already stranded 10 base runners. This has been something they have struggled with all year. When you’re facing a team that has scored 50 runs in the past 4 games, you need to capitalize on every opportunity possible. Stranding runners will happen, but 10 in 5 innings is flirting with disaster.
4) Stay hot at the plate and have your veteran leaders step up. I had to separate the two because perhaps FSU’s hottest hitter at the moment is freshman Myles Bailey. In the regional, Bailey hit .556 with 2 home runs (1 grand slam), drew 6 walks, and drove in 7 RBI. He’s been on an absolute heater for the past month and FSU needs him to keep that going in Corvallis.
FSU will also need to rely on big performances from its leader Alex Lodise, who has shown why he might be the best player in college baseball this year. FSU will also need veterans like Drew Faurot, Gage Harrelson, and Max Williams to step up in the moment. Max Williams came through when it was needed most, but he was 3-13 with 6 strikeouts in the regional. FSU needs that bat to be hot. During last year’s run, we saw unlikely heroes step up, so anyone can make the magic happen. Cal Fisher and Chase Williams have been playing great of late, too.
The action starts on Friday, June 6th at 6 pm on ESPN2. Game 2 will air on Saturday, June 7th at 9 pm on ESPN2. If game 3 is necessary, it will take place on Sunday, June 8th with time and TV networks to be determined. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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