In a recent report released by Brett McMurphy of the Action Network, he stated that the Big Ten and SEC have “no interest” in adding Florida State if it leaves the ACC & the ACC stays intact. These “sources” from around the B1G & SEC don’t want FSU because it doesn’t make financial sense, there’s no appetite to expand & “they’ve been a disruptive partner.” Could FSU really be left on the outside looking in, or do they have a seat at the Power 2 table despite these reports? I have quite a few thoughts on this outside of the fact that I’m simply not buying it. Let’s begin by addressing the financial comments.
Knowing that TV revenue is the main driver of finances in college athletics, FSU was the 7th most-viewed college football team in 2023. Their 3.58M weekly viewers would have made them the 3rd most-watched team in the B1G and 4th in the SEC (post-expansion). Despite coming off a fourth consecutive bad season, they were also in the Top 15 in 2022.
That’s also considering they were playing primarily ACC competition, which other than games against Clemson, drags their viewership numbers down. For example, outside of FSU (3.58M – 7th) and Clemson (1.7M – 22nd), no other ACC program finished in the Top 30 most-viewed programs in 2023. Louisville was the next closest at 31st with 1.36M. In 2022, NC State was the third-most viewed ACC team at 43rd with 881k weekly viewers.
Last year’s FSU vs. LSU game brought in 9.17M viewers, ranking it as the 6th most viewed game of the regular season. (Higher than the Iron Bowl, LSU vs. Alabama, Alabama vs. Texas, and just behind Washington vs. Oregon). Even FSU’s matchup against a 5-6 Florida team from the SEC crossed the 5M viewer mark. This shows how their viewership numbers would skyrocket against the bigger brands outside of the ACC (besides Clemson which drew 6.71M viewers as a noon ACC game last year).
FSU had 5 games that broke the coveted 4M viewer mark, which was tied with Ohio State and Washington for 3rd most of the 2023 season. Duke had the second-most in the ACC at 3, two of which involved FSU and Clemson. Clemson had 2 (vs. FSU and Duke) and Miami also had 2 (vs. FSU and Texas A&M from the SEC). Simply put, FSU and Clemson are the primary drivers behind the overwhelming majority of the ACC’s TV numbers, and it’s not particularly close. Even knowing how the Orange Bowl would turn out with all the opt-outs, it was still the 6th most-watched game of the entire season and the most-viewed non-playoff bowl at 10.39M viewers.
Looking back at 2022, both FSU and LSU were coming off losing seasons, yet, their season-opening game drew 7.55M viewers. When FSU faced its second SEC opponent of the season, Florida, that game drew 6.71M viewers. That was more than the Iron Bowl, Notre Dame vs. USC, and a handful of what would now be Big Ten or SEC matchups. FSU’s bowl game against Oklahoma was the second-highest non-New Year’s Six bowl at 5.4M viewers.
Over the past two seasons, FSU has played 6 games vs. current SEC members and had an average draw of 7.38M viewers. I have to mention those games were against some of the larger brands in the conference (LSU, UF, and Oklahoma), but the point is that FSU in the SEC or Big Ten would bring a massive TV draw. (Source: Sports Media Watch & Medium)
As for revenue, the ACC has already stated in its court sessions that the conference would stand to lose up to $200M in revenue if FSU and Clemson were to leave. According to USA Today, FSU’s athletic department ranked 15th highest in revenue in 2023-2024 after bringing in just over $161M. This would put them 6th in the B1G and 9th in the SEC, and that’s while collecting smaller conference payouts in the ACC.
In numbers, I obtained from Fox Sports, The Orlando Sentinel, and Tallahassee Democrat, from 2021-2023 FSU received approximately $44M less than full-member Big Ten schools and $28M less than SEC schools. Unfortunately, this revenue gap is expected to widen in the coming years. While FSU’s athletic department certainly holds its own, it would be one of the most valuable in the country if it were to receive the much larger conference payouts from either of the Power 2 conferences.
This also includes a two-year period when FSU dealt with waning ticket sales due to on-field struggles. In 2023, FSU sold out 5 of its 6 home games and has already announced that 5 of its 7 home games this season have sold out a month before kickoff. This shows the revenue and viewership numbers that FSU would bring to either conference makes sense.
Furthermore, in the arms race that is college football, do we really believe expansion is finished? If not, Notre Dame, FSU, and Clemson are the three biggest brands remaining as possible additions. Therefore, if the conferences were to expand again, these would be the three most desirable brands to add, and Notre Dame has already stated they value their status as an independent. These comments seem to be a short-term view on a long-term game of conference supremacy.
On the notion that FSU is a “disruptive partner.” There is certainly an argument for that, but were Texas and OU not disruptive when they decided to leave the Big 12? The Big 12 conference had even sent a cease and desist to the SEC over the rumors of interest in its two largest brands. I’d say their leaving certainly disrupted the Big 12. Yet, the SEC had no opposition to adding the two big brands because of exactly what we just discussed. Although there was more uncertainty in the future of the Pac-12, the Big Ten’s addition of Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA was essentially a death nail in the conference’s coffin. Again, I’d say that was pretty disruptive.
While FSU has been tabbed as the “bad boys” of the ACC, it’s quite possible that FSU nor Clemson would have had to go the legal route if the ACC wasn’t playing hide the ball with its legal contracts. Even if FSU doesn’t find its way out of the ACC this lawsuit has at a minimum exposed some things. Through this lawsuit, we’ve learned about the uncertain future with ESPN in regards to an upcoming unilateral extension option on the ACC’s TV contract and shady business dealings with Raycom Sports that have cost the conference members lost revenue for their lower-tier media rights.
Lastly, these are all “anonymous” sources who made these comments. They know they aren’t allowed to openly speak about poaching teams from another conference as long as they are still members. I’ll also remind you that the SEC promised Texas A&M that they would be the only SEC team from Texas when they agreed to join, and we saw how that worked out. These types of “sources” are also on record saying that they would be “shocked” if the Big Ten added Washington and Oregon. Once again, we see how that went. (see below as examples)
The point is, believe half of what you read and less of what you hear. Do we believe FSU and Clemson would file a lawsuit against the ACC with nowhere to go? Do we believe the same conferences that poached other teams for the sake of TV numbers and revenue in the past would pass on one (or two) of the Top 3 remaining brands outside of the conference if they become available? The ACC is fighting to keep its Top 2 brands because they know what losing them would do to the conference’s value. The Big 12 is reportedly expressing major interest in adding them because they know what it would add to their conference’s value.
If college football realignment has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. I’m not saying there is zero credibility in these reports, but I find it hard to believe it’s a definite “no” on adding Florida State or Clemson if they become available.
I know there have been opinions that FSU should just go back to being an Independent like Notre Dame. However, that comes with a few caveats. First, they could never qualify as a Top 4 seed in the new playoff format. Secondly, if the other conferences were to refuse to schedule FSU for one reason or another, they would have to resort to playing non-power 4 teams, thus making the chances of earning a playoff spot even slimmer. This is the one path I see that could eventually force Notre Dame to join a conference.
This is why we must ignore the noise and let the process play out. Trust the leadership at FSU to do what is best for the program, and thankfully, we have a strong group of leaders to navigate us through this process. These are just my thoughts on the recent reports and why I still believe FSU has a seat at the Power 2 table if they end up jumping into the game of realignment musical chairs. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!!
You can read the entire article from the Action Network Here.
I wanted to provide a quick update on the comments made by SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey yesterday (7/18/24). He was quoted when asked about adding Florida State to the SEC, “We’re not going to take our pie and slice it into more pieces.” From an article on the Action Network’s website (the same site that released the original report), the SEC’s new media rights deal that was signed in 2020 and is set to begin in 2024 has a pro rata clause that requires ESPN to pay the SEC the same amount per school for any new members.
Technically, his comments are correct, but that’s because the slices don’t get smaller when the pie gets bigger with any additions. This means that the SEC could in theory add in more teams without it bringing down the payout for its current member schools. Of course, that doesn’t mean they would just add any school because they would need to increase the conference’s value for any future contract renewals. However, as I laid out in the article above, Florida State would clearly be a value add to the conference.
Sankey has also made remarks before that the SEC is not pressured to stick to a certain number of teams, but they will be paying attention to what is happening around them and respond accordingly. This doesn’t mean they will be looking to add any teams, but it also means the door isn’t closed to doing so. I just wanted to provide this update as this comment made waves when it was released, but there is context that needs to be provided knowing the pro rata clause is in place. Remember what we talked about before, believe half of what you read and less of what you hear. These are the same types of comments we’ve seen in the past about realignment, and yet it still happens afterward. Thanks and Go Noles!
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