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As the 2024 college football season approaches, the landscape of the sport (entering its 155th year of existence) is undergoing significant transformation. These changes encompass conference realignments, evolving player compensation rules, and advances in technology, all of which are reshaping the way fans, players, and institutions engage with college football. To say that this isn’t your granddaddy’s college football would be massively understating a fact. This version of college football is unlike anything your grandsires could have ever dreamt up or would want to dream up. Let’s dive into these developments, examining their implications and what they signify for the future of the sport.
One of the most dynamic aspects of the current college football climate is the ongoing realignment of conferences. The past few years have seen a flurry of activity as schools seek better financial stability, competitive advantage, and increased exposure.
Leading the way in conference realignment has been the Power Two as they are affectionately called now: The Big Ten and the Southeastern Conference (SEC). For the entire history of college football, conferences have been built around regionality and rivals. However, as conference realignment began to take shape, one conference sought to bust out of the regional mode and expand its footprint. The Big Ten’s addition of Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, set for the 2024 season, marks a significant shift, extending the conference’s reach into the lucrative Pacific Coast market (mostly the LA market). This move not only bolsters the Big Ten’s television revenue but also enhances its national profile, turning the BIG into the first national conference in college football. Desiring to keep pace with the Big Ten but not give up its own footprint, the SEC’s incorporation of Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, scheduled for the same year, is poised to create a super conference that dominates the southern United States.
These expansions speak not of geography, not of preserving what we once loved about college football. No, they speak of the desire to consolidate power and resources. The enhanced media deals and revenue sharing from these additions are expected to provide significant financial boosts to member institutions, which in turn can improve facilities, attract top-tier coaching staff, and enhance recruiting efforts.
At this current moment, the expected payout for the Big Ten’s media deal is around $75 million per school by 2025. The expected payout for the SEC’s media deal is around $74.9 million per school by 2025. That’s $31 million MORE than the BIG 12 conference payout per school and $35.4 million MORE than the ACC conference payout per school. And that number is only going to grow. By 2029, The Big Ten is projected to pay out $94.5 million per school, and the SEC is projected to pay out $105.3 million per school. These estimates are based on each conference’s Tier I, II, and III media rights (You can view the data chart at: NVGT.com).
These shifts leave the remaining conferences in a state of flux. The conference formerly known as the Pac-12 is dead. In its place remains the Pac-2 (not long for survival) with Washington State and Oregon State who will be competing as a two-team conference under the NCAA’s two-year grace period for conferences who do not meet the minimum team requirement of seven. The Big 12 and the ACC are grappling with how to maintain their competitive relevance and financial stability.
The latter is facing a duo-front legal battle as its top-tier programs in Florida State and Clemson are suing the conference over the Grant of Rights contract that binds the media rights of each school to the conference until 2036. If FSU and Clemson win or settle their respective cases, The ACC will most assuredly be reduced to a Group of Five status. The BIG-12, on the other hand, in an effort to stay in the arms race that is conference realignment, has declared its conference “open for business” in its pursuit of acquiring additional teams that would bolster its appeal.
Consolidating power and resources for the Power Two doesn’t just stop at TV media deals alone. With the 2024 and 2025 seasons serving as the first and last of the 12-team expanded College Football Playoffs, the 10 current FBS conferences and Notre Dame have already agreed to (or shall we say, “forced agreed to) a new, six-year 14-team College Football Playoff field and a new revenue sharing model starting in 2026. Still to be finalized is a reported $1.3 billion TV rights deal with ESPN. This new deal is set to massively benefit the Big Ten and the SEC, while other conferences will take less of the pie. The new deal will pay the Big Ten and the SEC 29% of CFP’s media revenue, which is estimated to be about $22 million per school. The ACC will receive 17% ($13-14 million per school), and the BIG 12 will receive around 15% ($12 million per school). Oh! Don’t forget that the Power Two negotiated a “look-in” clause in 2028 so that the CFP management team can adjust payouts based on performance, or if there is another set of conference realignment.
If you happened to be in a non-Power Four conference (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and BIG 12), then you would receive the Group of Five rate, which will split 9% of the media contract. Any independent school outside of Notre Dame will split 1% of the media deal, while the Fighting Irish will get around $12 million per year.
As for the 2024 season (some who love the team from Tallahassee would say it’s a year too late), the 12-team playoffs are set for a two-year run. In this format, the five highest-ranked conference champions will duel with seven at-large teams (using the College Football Playoff Committee’s Top 25 ranking system). The four highest-ranked conference champions would receive a bye into the second round. First-round games will be played at the stadium of the highest-ranked team. Here is what the field would have looked like if the 12-team format had existed during the 2023 season:
(1) Michigan (first-round bye)
(2) Washington (first-round bye)
(3) Texas (first-round bye)
(4) Alabama (first-round bye)
(5) Florida State* vs (12) Liberty
(6) Georgia* vs (11) Ole Miss
(7) Ohio State* vs (10) Penn State
(8) Oregon* vs (9) Missouri
*Denotes home-field advantage
However, if we are to be real with ourselves, we would remind ourselves that in the 10-year history of the College Football Playoffs, there have been 40 slots, of which only 16 different teams have filled. How about this: Since the year 2000, only thirteen different programs have won at least one national title. Since 2010, only eight different programs have won a national title. What’s old is old, and what’s new… is really just old. And just to make us all feel better; of the last twenty national champions – 13 of them hailed from the mighty SEC (Bama, UGA, LSU, UF, and Auburn). Three from the ACC (FSU & Clemson). Three from the Big Ten (Ohio State & Michigan). One each from the BIG 12 (Texas – now a part of the SEC) and formerly the PAC-12 (may it rest in peace), with USC (Now a part of the Big Ten) winning one in 2004. Don’t get me wrong, the 12-team playoff is good for the game to help avoid situations like FSU in 2023. However, the format that is meant to bring “parity” back to college football with more seats at the table is likely to be the same cast of characters filling those seats.
The introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights in 2021 has fundamentally altered the landscape of college athletics. Players can now profit from endorsements, sponsorships, and other commercial opportunities, marking a shift towards greater economic freedom and empowerment for student-athletes.
The NIL era has brought about unprecedented opportunities for players to capitalize on their popularity and marketability. High-profile athletes are signing lucrative deals with major brands, creating a new dynamic in college sports. This shift has also led to increased visibility for non-revenue sports, as athletes in sports like gymnastics, track and field, and women’s basketball are finding their own niche markets and sponsorship opportunities.
However, the NIL landscape is not without its challenges. There are concerns about the impact on team dynamics, with disparities in earnings potentially leading to locker-room tensions. You hear stories of players who have been with their school for a season or two, who have contributed significantly on the field, getting paid less than a high school freshman just walking on campus or a transfer portal player. Additionally, the regulation of NIL deals varies widely across states and institutions, creating an uneven playing field.
A significant development in the NIL space has been the rise of collectives—groups of boosters, alumni, and fans who pool resources to fund NIL deals for athletes at specific schools. These collectives are playing a crucial role in shaping recruiting battles, as the promise of substantial NIL opportunities becomes a key factor in athletes’ college decisions.
Another facet of NIL and the collectives that manage the funds is the NCAA’s Transfer Portal. Because players can now transfer freely without the consequence of sitting out for a year, Collectives have become crucial in the realm of roster retention. Football Coaching Staff (who can’t “induce” a potential player with NIL), and collectives have to now consider how to keep crucial players from leaving for another school.
We all know (with a wink here and there) that some schools are reaching out to players currently playing for another school (via the backdoor or an aunt, uncle, former coach, friend, etc.) to see if that player, who may be unhappy about his playing time or NIL deal, would want to jump ship to their school (this is a direct NCAA violation – that the NCAA can’t enforce without concrete proof of tampering). Because of this, collectives and respective college football coaching staff are forced to think about how to distribute their NIL funds in three critical areas: High school recruiting, Transfer portal recruiting, and roster retention.
The 2024 college football season emerges as a pivotal moment in the sport’s evolution, characterized by sweeping changes in conference alignments, player compensation through NIL rights, and the expanded College Football Playoff. These transformations reflect a shifting landscape where traditional norms give way to a new era of commercialization and competitive strategy.
The realignment frenzy, driven by financial imperatives and a quest for national prominence, has reshaped the Power Two conferences, the Big Ten and SEC, into media powerhouses with unparalleled revenue streams. This consolidation of power not only amplifies their influence but also leaves other conferences grappling with their future roles and identities. As the sport leans into a future defined by economic stakes, the implementation of NIL rights has empowered athletes to monetize their fame, albeit unevenly across states and sports.
Moreover, the introduction of a 12-team playoff format marks another significant departure from tradition, promising heightened drama and revenue windfalls for the Power Two. This new structure underscores the sport’s relentless pursuit of commercial viability and viewer engagement, albeit with potential consequences for competitive parity and team dynamics.
As college football hurtles into its 155th year, these changes underscore a pivotal juncture: one where tradition meets transformation, where economic incentives redefine the collegiate athlete experience, and where the game’s future promises to be as dynamic as its storied past. Amidst these shifts, one certainty remains: college football’s ability to captivate, evolve, and endure as a cherished American tradition.
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