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If I had to pick one position group I’m most excited about this season, this is it. The depth and diversity of this group are truly special from power backs to pass catchers, 175 pounds up to 224, true freshmen to redshirt seniors, and seemingly everything in between. However, something that I do find interesting with this group is that it’s an odd mix with a lot of potential.
I say that because no “one guy” has been the dominant back like Trey Benson, Cam Akers, Dalvin Cook, etc. Everyone in this group has been the RB2 or RB3 wherever they have been or is still a young developing player. At the same time, there is not a single running back in this group that you don’t like or see the potential of a breakout season on the horizon. Honestly, the biggest question is how do you feed them all enough carries to maximize the talent?
The good thing is that we know Mike Norvell and this staff have a history of taking players who may not have been stars elsewhere and turning them into household names. We’ve also seen a growing number of homegrown players developing into big-time playmakers. FSU will be looking to use that depth and diversity of skillsets to improve its ground game after a down year from a production standpoint last season.
In 2023, FSU only averaged 150 yards per game (YPG), the lowest average since Norvell arrived at FSU and his lowest per-game average throughout his 12 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator. A lot of that can be attributed to three things. 1) Underperformance by the offensive line. Thankfully, Norvell believes this year’s line is the best and deepest he’s had at FSU. 2) They faced some tough run defenses. Last season, FSU faced 4 Top 25 run defenses and was held to under 100 rushing yards against 3 of them. 3) Trey Benson, while still very good, was not the north-south runner we saw in 2022, and the OL struggles didn’t help his cause.
So, with renewed confidence up front and more horses behind them, we’re projecting FSU’s run game to be more productive this season. College football expert Phil Steele projects FSU to improve by around 14 YPG for an average of 164.3. I like Phil, but I must disagree. Given how we think the running game will be the strength of this offense, I expect Norvell will pound the rock. I would put that average up towards the 180-200 range as we’ve seen throughout his time at FSU.
We also must factor in DJ Uiagalelei’s dual-threat ability at quarterback. He ran the ball over 250 times in the past three seasons as a starter racking up over 1,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. In 2022, DJ actually accounted for more runs of 10+ yards on fewer carries than Trey Benson during the 2023 season. While I’m not sure we will see him carry it over 100 times in a season like he did at Clemson, he will undoubtedly be a factor in FSU’s run game this season. Let me touch on Norvell’s impressive history of rushing offenses and then we’ll dive into the personnel.
One of the things I love about Norvell is his ability to play to his strengths. He’s had great rushing offenses AND great passing offenses depending on his personnel. He also understands how to feed multiple skilled backs in the same season. During his time at Memphis, Norvell had a 1k-yard rusher in 3 of his 4 seasons there. He actually had two in 2018 when Memphis had the #4 rushing offense in the country.
If you look at the guys that almost made the 1k-yard mark (900+ yards), there have been 8 in 12 years of his career as an OC or HC. However, when you also look at the dispersion across the stat sheet, it is rarely one guy carrying the entire load. That is why I’m confident Norvell will be able to use the entire arsenal of backs at FSU.
When Norvell knows he can run it successfully, he’s not scared to pound the rock. During last year’s struggles on the ground, FSU averaged 33 attempts per game including a career-low (as a head coach) 20 rushing attempts vs. Clemson. When Norvell has a good ground game he typically averages around 40 or more attempts per game, which I think we trend back towards this season. I would not be surprised to see the return of two-back sets like he frequently used at Memphis.
Norvell has had 4 seasons with an average topping the 200 YPG mark and if we round up from 190 YPG that number climbs to 6. I’ll list his averages per season below to give you an idea. Since arriving at FSU, the average has been 186 YPG, which is about where I think we’ll be this year with some potential upside given DJ will also be a big part of the run game.
Stat Guide: (MTF) = Missed Tackles Forced – (10+) = Runs of 10 or more yards – (YCO) = Yards After Contact
Coming off an ACC Championship game MVP performance, it’s Lawrance Toafili’s time to lead this backfield. Entering his fifth season with the Seminoles, Toafili has shown flashes of being a truly game-changing back. From the tip-toe touchdown against Clemson to the wildcat score that helped FSU bring home the ACC title, Toafili has an amazing and diverse skillset. However, he has battled some inconsistencies throughout his career that led to him being pushed down the depth chart. As a freshman, he averaged a whopping 9.6 YPC, which dipped to 5.1 in year two, and 4.8 in year three, but climbed back to 6.7 last season. Toafili’s production in a crowded backfield has been impressive with over 450 rushing yards the past two seasons on less than 100 carries each.
Perhaps his most valuable attribute is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Toafili has put up over 100 receiving yards in every season at FSU and had a career-high 268 in 2022. Last season (among backs with at least 50 carries), he was 7th in Power 5 in YPC, 6th in average yards after contact, 12th in percentage of breakaway yards (designed runs over 15 yards), and T-30 with Trey Benson in elusive rating per PFF. Those are impressive numbers considering the OL struggles we talked about previously. The backfield at FSU may be more crowded than ever, but it’s now Toafili’s time to shine. So far throughout fall camp reports have indicated that he is rising to the challenge, and we can’t wait to see what he does during his final season in Tallahassee.
With Trey Benson off to the NFL, outside of incoming true freshman Kam Davis, FSU lacked a power back for 2024. However, Mike Norvel was having none of that and made one of my favorite additions through the portal in Alabama transfer Roydell Williams. Although Williams did not get the bulk of carries at Bama, he was still productive against good competition in the SEC. Last season, he put up 560 yards (5.0 YPC) with 5 touchdowns. He started the SEC championship game vs. UGA and put up a respectable 65 yards and a touchdown against their top 5 scoring defense. In his best game of the season, Williams WENT OFF vs. South Florida (who has a top-50 rush defense) racking up 129 yards (7.6 YPC) and a touchdown.
When I turn on his film, the first two things that stand out, are power and patience. I’ve often said that he reminds me of if you combined Trey Benson’s power with Treshaun Ward’s ability to be patient while blocks are set up. He doesn’t have the most top-end speed, so he gets run down in the open field occasionally, but he’s difficult to stop from getting there. If you need evidence, just look at of his 560 total yards, 375 came after contact. He doesn’t do much work catching the ball out of the backfield, but he did have 11 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown last season. One thing I like about Williams is his efficiency. He caught 11/12 targets last season and has not recorded a fumble in the past 2 years (knock on wood).
Williams was Bama’s number 2 back behind Jase McClellan, who was taken in the NFL draft. However, Williams’ YPC and average yards after contact were actually a shade higher. I’m excited to see what does in Mike Norvell’s offense. With as many backs as we have splitting carries, another 500–600-yard season would be big for the Noles!
One of the most interesting additions this offseason is Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas. Standing at only 5-foot-9 and weighing in at 175 pounds, Lucas certainly won’t be the first one off the bus on game day. However, he is someone I’m very excited to see because of his dynamic skill set. His speed and elusiveness make him dangerous, and from camp reports, he is as advertised. I was on a podcast over the summer and one of the hosts had interviewed someone who covers Indiana. He told me the guy said to watch out for Lucas because he was a dangerous athlete who was grossly misused while with the Hoosiers. These are the types of things I like to hear knowing he is now going to be playing in a Mike Norvell offense.
Lucas didn’t produce a ton as a running back while at Indiana, but they had the 102nd-ranked rush offense, so it was a struggle for everyone. He put up around 275 yards on the ground each of his two seasons there. In 2023, he seemed to be used more appropriately lining up in the slot 41% of his snaps compared to 8.8% in 2022. That led to him putting up 247 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 34 receptions. I suspect with a deep stable of backs; he’ll likely be used similarly to Ja’Khi Douglas as a slot receiver or pass catcher out of the backfield. No matter how FSU plans to get Lucas in space; he is a threat to take it to the house when they do. Lucas will also be a big factor on special teams as he was one of the best kick returners in the Big Ten.
Caziah Holmes is a guy that I’ve been high on since he arrived in Tallahassee, but he has yet to find a sizable workload. Holmes was a top 5 all-purpose back out of high school, the scout team player of the year at Penn State, and is now in year three with FSU (second season being eligible to play). He has nice size at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds with a good combination of speed and power. He did see the field in a limited capacity last year putting up 185 yards (6.38 YPC) and 2 touchdowns on 29 attempts with another 58 yards and 2 scores through the air. With an expanded workload, Holmes can certainly make an impact, however, he will be fighting for carries in another crowded backfield this season. I do think he will have a heavier workload than in 2023.
By grouping the rest of the backs in the room, I’m not dismissing them compared to the others. The crazy thing is that the bottom half of the depth chart may actually be the most talented part of it. There just isn’t much to go on besides practice reports. Sam Singleton did get on the field last year as a freshman but only got 8 carries. However, he showed a level of speed that should get FSU fans excited. We’ve also heard in fall camp that he has broken some runs up the middle to show that he has some power to go with his speed. He’s had a good fall camp and looks ready to contribute in 2024. Singleton might be the most overlooked back in the position group because of who we are about to talk about.
Kam Davis has captivated the fan base, beat writers, and just about everyone surrounding FSU football and there’s good reason for that. Davis is a 5-foot-10, 224-pound bowling ball with legs that can run you over or around you. I’m not alone when I say, I think Davis will be the next great back to come out of FSU. Even in a crowded room, I don’t think they will be able to keep him off the field this season because of how good he is, even as a freshman. However, Davis played quarterback in high school, so there are some intricacies of the position to learn, and we’ve heard FSU is working on getting him up to speed. I cannot wait to see this kid in garnet and gold!
Another freshman who is making waves in fall camp is Micahi Danzy. From camp reports, and Toafili himself, Danzy appears to be Toafili 2.0 with a higher ceiling. Speed, speed, speed has been the narrative for the talented freshman. Toafili even said that Danzy was further developed at this point in his career than he was. It’s hard to imagine how they will feed all these backs, especially down to the true freshmen level, but it’s also hard to imagine how they keep them off the field. Either way, the future looks extremely bright if Davis and Danzy stick around.
Kam Davis is gonna be a problem 👀 https://t.co/QE8XRxq7kU
— Plant The Spear (@Plantthespear1) August 11, 2024
FSU’s run game should take a step in the right direction this season with the depth and diversity of this group behind what should be an improved offensive line. I’m genuinely excited to see how they use all the different skill sets. The depth will also be a factor throughout the season as FSU can bring fresh legs to pound on teams when they are tired. We also must factor in DJ’s dual-threat ability as we mentioned in the opening of this article. A dangerous run game should also help open up play action and the deep ball, two areas in which DJ excels.
Norvell has a history of productive rushing offenses and typically is a run-first guy. If the offensive line is what we think it can be, this could be one of his better rushing offenses at FSU like the one that ran for over 200 yards in 8 games in 2022. Stay connected with Plant The Spear for more in-depth FSU coverage. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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