Florida State is looking to bounce back and snap a two-game losing streak against the Pitt Panthers on Saturday. The Noles are a 10.5-point favorite, but Pat Narduzzi’s Pitt teams are rarely an “easy out.” Both teams are sitting at 3-2, but their paths to getting there have been much different.
Florida State has played the current No. 2 Miami, No. 8 Alabama, and No. 19 Virginia from the Power 4 with losses to UVA and Miami. Pitt has played West Virginia (2-4), Louisville (4-1), and Boston College (1-4), with losses to West Virginia and Louisville. The road to 3-2 has clearly been much tougher for FSU. Pitt has been competitive in both of their losses. WVU was in an overtime game, and although they committed five turnovers, the UL game was still a one-score game.
The Noles will have the advantage of playing at home, although it is a noon game coming off two straight losses. I like the Noles’ chances in this game, but Pitt will put up a fight, and some matchups could be concerning. Let’s dive in and see what Pitt will bring to the table on Saturday.
Pitt runs a pass-heavy offense (65% Pass | 35% Run) that currently ranks 12th in the country in scoring at 41 points per game (33 vs P4 teams). The Panthers made a change at quarterback last week against Boston College when freshman Mason Heintschel was given the nod over former starter Eli Holstein.
In his first start, he torched the Eagles’ defense, going 30/41 (73.2%) for 323 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran it 8 times for 45 yards (sack-adjusted). However, as good as that performance was, BC is terrible this year and currently has the 119th-ranked defense. What concerns me the most in this game is that Pitt runs a lot of the same stuff that gave the FSU defense fits the past two weeks.
They like to use tempo and run a lot of short passing routes. In fact, 66% of Heintschel’s passes were under 10 yards, which is the exact same percentage as Virginia ran vs FSU. It will be critical for the secondary to step up this week after two rough games against the pass. Thankfully, Pitt has not run the ball well this season and only averages 99 yards per game vs Power 4 defenses. I will mention that their top back, Desmond Reid, has missed the past two games with injury and is listed as questionable this week.
Pitt’s offensive line is a solid but not special group and will be without its starting right tackle vs FSU. They rank 102nd in pass block efficiency, 90th in sacks allowed, and 104th in rush yards per carry. Receivers Cataurus Hicks and Kenny Johnson have both recorded a 100+ yards game vs a Power 4 team this season. FSU has struggled to affect the quarterback in the past two games, but with a freshman behind center, this would be a good week to do it. He has wheels to escape the pocket and is smart about throwing it away when he gets pressured. However, there were a few times vs BC that he threw the ball across his body while on the run. That could present FSU with some opportunities to pick the ball off if the front 7 can pressure into making some risky throws.
FSU chose to take away the run vs Miami last week, and the secondary did not hold up against the pass. They allowed 229 yards and 2 passing touchdowns vs UVA and 241 yards and 4 passing touchdowns vs Miami. They will be tested again this week with Pitt’s pass-heavy offense. They should be able to bottle up a rushing offense that has struggled, but it can’t come at the expense of getting torched on the back end again this week.
One thing you can always expect when you play Pitt is to face a well-coached physical defense under head coach Pat Narduzzi. They did allow 31 points against a bad WVU team, but 7 of those came in overtime. They also gave up 34 points to Louisville the following week, but due to special teams turnovers, Louisville had two touchdown drives start inside the 25 (one inside the 5). They currently allow an average of 19.6 points per game (24 vs P4).
Pitt has an undersized defensive line with an average weight of around 280 pounds, so FSU will have a decided size advantage in the trenches. However, they are a very scrappy bunch that plays hard. They are also backed by a really good group of linebackers who are disciplined and play downhill. They clean up a lot for this defense and a big part of why Pitt has the second-ranked rush defense, allowing just 65 yards per game on average (85 vs P4). With that said, Pitt has not faced a rushing offense that ranks in the top 100 yet, so they are in for a much bigger challenge against FSU.
Their secondary is great in run support, adding to why they are so good against the run, but they give up holes in coverage. Pitt’s pass defense ranks 81st in the country and has allowed 263 yards per game vs Power 4 offenses. They are 35th in third-down defense, but 115th in red zone defense.
Pitt has a solid defense that will challenge FSU, but they have not faced the toughest slate of offenses either. Louisville is the only scoring offense they have faced ranked in the top 50 (35th). FSU’s offense struggled against Miami’s defense, but that is a different level of athletes than what they will see on Saturday. The main goal for FSU’s offense is not to beat themselves for a third week in a row.
Transitive properties in college football rarely work because of how teams match up. However, Pitt lost a close game at home against Louisville. Virginia just beat Louisville on the road in overtime and beat FSU in double overtime, so on paper, the degree of separation between these teams appears to be slim, and why I expect this to be a good game. The main difference, as I mentioned in the opening, is that they have not faced nearly the test that FSU has through 5 games, and yet both teams have the same record. Plus, FSU gets homefield advantage even if it is a noon game coming off two straight losses.
I also think FSU knows what is at stake in this game. This truly feels like a fork in the road for this team, program, and Mike Norvell. As one of our listeners put it, this is a turning point or tipping point for Mike Norvell. The first two losses came against a UVA team that is vastly overachieving relative to expectations, and Miami looks like a national title contender. But if they lose to a 3-2 Pitt team that has one Power 4 win at home to fall to .500 and 0-3 in the ACC… That’s going to be tough to stomach. It won’t come easy, but this is a game FSU should win. This is a game that FSU MUST win.
My three keys this week are: 1) Play a complete game. The defense let us down vs UVA, and the offense let us down vs Miami. We need both sides of the ball to show up against a team with a pulse for the first time since Alabama. 2) Play a clean game. I’ve been saying this for the past 2 weeks, and neither time has it happened. FSU has committed 6 turnovers in the past 2 games combined with costly penalties and poor tackling at times. That’s how you lose to teams you should beat and how you kill any chance of upsetting a team you shouldn’t. They must clean up the self-inflicted wounds this week if they want to win. 3) The secondary must show up this week. We already talked about this earlier. The pass defense has been an utter disappointment against Virginia and Miami. Pitt’s pass-heavy offense will test them again this week, and they better be up for the challenge or this game could turn into a loss.
With all that said, I do think FSU bounces back this week and gets a much-needed win at home. To be frank, FSU needs to be 6-2 heading into Clemson. They have Pitt at home, Stanford on the road, and Wake at home off a bye week. That would go a long way in mending the wounds from a few early losses and getting momentum back in their favor. It all starts with Pitt on Saturday, and I have the Noles right there with the spread winning this one 34-24. Thanks for reading, and Go Noles!
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