FSU’s offensive line will be the key to success in 2025 because it all starts up front with Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy offense. After fielding one of the worst units in the country last season, this retooled group could actually be a strength for the Seminoles this year. Here’s why I’m betting on FSU to have a turnaround in the trenches.
Herb Hand takes over as the new offensive line coach following Gus Malzahn to Tallahassee. He brings 25 years of experience with stops at big-time programs like Texas, Clemson, and Penn State. Throughout his career, Herb Hand has produced 38 All-Conference linemen and multiple NFL draft picks.
When Hand and Malzahn teamed up at UCF, they produced three top 10 rushing offenses in four seasons, averaging 225 yards per game. UCF’s offensive line led the country in “OL Yards” or yards before contact on run plays last year. This displays Herb Hand’s emphasis on winning the point of contact.
His inside zone run blocking scheme is offensive line-friendly, featuring straightforward assignments and creating double-team opportunities. Hand and Malzahn will have their work cut out for them in fixing FSU’s abysmal run game from last season, but their track record speaks for itself.
If they fix the ground game, it would be a massive boost for the offense because FSU’s success on the field can almost be tied directly to the success of its rushing attack. Under Mike Norvell, FSU is 30-16 when rushing for over 100 yards in a game compared to just 3-11 when they don’t meet the mark.
Keeping that in mind, FSU has been held under 100 yards rushing 11 times in the past 2 years compared to UCF, which was held under 100 yards just twice in 4 years under Gus Malzahn and Herb Hand. You can see why I expect a big improvement in the ground game.
Of course, you still need to throw the ball. Luckily for FSU, Herb Hand’s offensive lines at UCF allowed, on average, a 10% lower pressure rate than FSU under Alex Atkins (28% vs 38%). All three of FSU’s QBs last season faced a pressure rate over 40% which took 3 of the top 15 spots in the highest pressure percentage in the FBS. Gross…
Pair the results that Hand has been able to produce with a mobile quarterback like Tommy Castellanos, and we could be in business. To further drive the point home, let’s compare Pro Football Focus’s Pass Block Efficiency ranking for FSU vs UCF over the past 4 years.
The results are pretty eye-opening and show how FSU’s offensive line has struggled. This is what prompted me to write my “Trouble in the Trenches: Why FSU’s struggles start up front” piece. I’m not sure if Gus Malzahn and Herb Hand will be the answer to fixing FSU’s offensive line, but based on results, replacing Alex Atkins and bringing in a handful of new players was a good first step. If FSU can get the same type of results from its offensive line that Hand got at UCF, that would give the rest of the offense a much higher chance of success.
To fix the unit, you’ll need more than just improved coaching and scheme. Thankfully, FSU also made some solid additions this offseason and will be rolling out 4 new starters, and Richie Leonard is back from injury. It’s essentially a brand-new unit, so let’s look at the projected starting five and their backgrounds.
Gunnar Hansen (LT): 3-year starter at Vanderbilt with over 2,000 snaps of experience.
Adrian Medley (LG): Top 15 graded guard in the Big 12 last year per PFF (68.5). Has started 19 games in this offense.
Luke Petitbon (C): Highest graded returning center in the ACC. Raked No. 1 in pass blocking grade, No. 5 in run blocking grade, and was tied for 3rd in efficiency grade (PFF). He allowed 22 fewer pressures in 22 more snaps than the player he’s replacing over the past two seasons.
Richie Leonard IV (RG): Played in 35 games with 15 starts at the Power 4 level. Earned above-average PFF grades in 3/4 seasons.
Micah Pettus (RT): Top 10 graded tackle in the SEC last year. Highest graded starting offensive lineman on a team that finished with the #3 scoring offense (71.5). Has 29 starts and over 2k snaps of experience.
This group has size with an average height of 6-foot-4 and a weight of 324 pounds. They have experience as all 5 are redshirt seniors with a combined 129 career starts. They still need to come together and gel as a unit after being limited in the spring, but they all have proven their potential individually.
We frequently talk about a baseball term on our podcast called WAR, or wins above replacement. Basically, is the new player better than their replacement and by how much? If we compare the 4 new starters to the 4 players they are replacing, it’s clearly an upgrade. We’ll leave Richie Leonard out because he is the lone returner. For the other starters, I used whoever played the most snaps at each position because FSU was a revolving door at a few spots last season. The numbers you’re about to see are pressures, sacks, and run and pass blocking grades from PFF.
PBLK = Pass Block Grade
RBLK = Run Block Grade
PRS = Pressures Allowed
SK = Sacks Allowed
– Total: 79 PRS 13 SK
– Total: 54 PRS 8 SK
Many factors play into this, but from a raw data standpoint, FSU’s W.A.R. from the new starters is sizeable. Their stats show a potential 32% reduction in pressures and 39% in sacks. Outside of a slight drop in two grades, every other grade by the incoming player is higher than the outgoing player, with a massive jump at left guard.
Where I have concerns with this unit is their level of experienced depth. FSU does bring back their highest graded offensive lineman from last season in redshirt senior Jacob Rizy, who has posted stellar PFF grades above 72 in the past 3 seasons. Other than that, there’s little to no experience.
That doesn’t mean they can’t be good, but let’s just hope Herb Hand is better at developing talent than Atkins. The good news is that Herb Hand already stated he doesn’t rotate just for the sake of rotating. Unless there is an injury concern, the starting 5 will get the majority of reps.
Staying healthy will be key, but the potential for this unit to be a strength for FSU under Herb Hand is there. It feels strange to say that at a place that’s been plagued by subpar OL play for years. At the same time, potential means nothing unless they can put it together on Saturdays. This group was limited in the spring, so they must gel quickly with Alabama on the horizon.
However, this isn’t coach speak or hypotheticals. This is a projection based on past production, and I’m betting on a BIG improvement from the boys up front this season. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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