Florida State is having a historically bad season. There is a belief among some of the fan base that FSU will never recover under Mike Norvell. While I understand the argument because this has been a fall of epic proportions in year 5 of Norvell’s tenure, I disagree that it’s impossible. I’m not guaranteeing it will happen, but I believe one great offseason could get FSU back on track. Don’t believe me? Well, look no further than the Pitt Panthers as a case study it can be done.
Only three seasons ago, Pitt won 11 games and the ACC title. They followed that up with a 9-win season and a second consecutive AP top 25 finish. However, in 2023, Pitt only won 3 games (2 vs. FBS) and finished tied for 12th in a then 14-team ACC. This happened in head coach Pat Narduzzi’s ninth season, so like Mike Norvell, it was his players, his coaches, and his processes that got them there.
At the end of last season, Narduzzi knew he had to shake things up. He’s even quoted saying, “S**t, I have to clean house.” He then proceeded to fire almost his entire offensive staff, changed how their NIL was structured, and showed the door to a few players who pressed them for more money when they hadn’t earned it (sound familiar?).
In that terrible 2023 season, Pitt’s offensive production took a massive drop. They went from 31.3 points per game in 2022, to 20.2 in 2023. If you factor out the FCS game where they scored 45 points, that average drops under 20 to just 17.9. Pitt was held under 20 points in 6 games and under 10 in 3. Their offense fell from 44th to 116th. This fall-off looks even worse when you consider that Pitt had the 3rd ranked scoring offense averaging over 41 points per game in 2021.
For the 2024 season, Pitt brought in a new offensive coordinator/quarterback’s coach and new coaches at tight ends, offensive line, wide receivers, and running backs. Yet, the same head coach and strength and conditioning staff remained in place (again, sound familiar?). Pitt also leaned on the portal for help.
On the 2024 team, their leading passer, rusher, two of their top 4 in receiving yards, and starting center are all transfers. Three of their other four starting offensive linemen have seen an improvement in their PFF grade this season under the new OL coach. Pitt’s scoring offense has made a 72.4% jump in points per game from 20.3 to 35. They went from an offense ranked below 100th to one in the top 25 (24th) in just one season.
Meanwhile, their defense has only improved by a mere 2.3 points per game, so the improvement in offensive production has directly led to the improvement in the win column. If they still averaged 20 PPG, they would only be a 3-win team at this point in the season. However, Pitt started the season 7-0 and climbed as high as 18th in the rankings. They have lost 3 games in a row, but let’s add some context.
Loss number one came on the road against current ACC frontrunner SMU. Number two was a 5-point loss to UVA, but Pitt was leading late in the third quarter when their starting quarterback was knocked out of the game on a targeting hit. Finally, number three was a 4-point loss to Clemson without their starting quarterback and Pitt had the lead with 1:16 left in the game. There’s a possibility if their starting quarterback doesn’t miss time, Pitt is 9-1. Either way, they have already more than doubled their win total from last year with two regular season games and a bowl left to play.
This was accomplished by bringing in a new offensive staff, better coaching, and landing a few key pieces from the portal. And consider that Pitt’s portal class was only ranked 51st with zero blue-chip players signed. They accomplished this turnaround with the 43rd-ranked roster in the 247 Talent Composite, which is 4 spots lower than it was in 2023.
FSU currently has the 13th most talented roster and Mike Norvell has signed three consecutive top 10 transfer classes since they started ranking them in 2022. Yes, this year’s class had a low hit rate, but before 2024, he’s had a significantly higher number of booms than busts. Assuming FSU finishes the season 2-10, if they were to get back to bowl eligibility next season in the 6–8-win range, that would be a major step in the right direction. That’s not where we want to be, but it shows immediate progress under the new staff and could snowball into recruiting and attracting more transfers for 2026.
Let’s say hypothetically that FSU finishes with an average of 15 points per game this season (which would require them to score 30+ against CSU and at least 14 against UF). If they made the same 15-point-per-game jump Pitt made, they would average 30 points per game in 2025. That still isn’t great and wouldn’t even rank top 50 as it stands in 2024. For starters, if FSU averaged 30 PPG this season, they would currently be 6-4 (probably 7-4 after CSU). Not great, but much better than 1-9.
Here’s another factor to consider. Pitt’s schedule for that 7-0 run was easy. FSU does open with Alabama next year but otherwise has an easier schedule than in 2024. So far this season, they have faced 6 defenses ranked in the Top 50 and zero ranked 100th or lower. In 2025, only 2 teams on the schedule currently have a top 50 defense (Alabama and Virginia Tech), and 4 are ranked 100th or below plus an FCS team. Obviously, teams can get better next season, but by the schedule alone, you can see the path for offensive improvement.
This might be one of the most crucial off-seasons in program history because it can either turn things around or lead FSU down a path of mediocrity that ends with a very expensive outcome. However, if things go right and FSU has a Pitt-like turnaround in 2025, we are back in business.
Lastly, I want to address one thing I have been confronted with when bringing this argument up. That is how can we trust Mike Norvell to get this right? After all, he hired the staff that got us to 1-9. For starters, Norvell led FSU to 19 straight wins and a conference championship within his first four years of inheriting a dumpster fire during the covid year. There are a lot of good coaches that have never accomplished that.
Mike Norvell also has a history of making some pretty good hires. To name a few, there’s Dan Lanning, who currently coaches the number-one team in the country. Kenny Dillingham has led Arizona State to an 8-2 record and is one win away from achieving the highest win total at ASU in a decade. There’s also Ryan Silverfield, who has Memphis at 9-2, and Scott Symons who is the defensive coordinator for the number one team in the ACC. Those are all coaches who came from the Norvell tree.
FSU is going to need a great portal haul this offseason to supplement its recruiting class and infuse this roster with difference-makers. I believe they got lazy last year in their evaluations and made some missteps in NIL that caused them to miss on some much-needed pieces. However, keep in mind that Norvell has gotten guys like Keir Thomas, Jermaine Johnson, Dillan Gibbons, and Jammie Robinson to say yes on the heels of a 3-6 season.
They signed a top 10 transfer class with names like Trey Benson, Johnny Wilson, Jared Verse, and Tatum Bethune after a 5-7 season that featured a 0-4 start and loss to an FCS team. Coaching aside, one good portal class can make a HUGE difference. Just look at Miami. Their leading passer, rusher, number four receiver, and starting center are all transfers. On defense, their leader in tackles, interceptions, TFLs, and sacks are all transfers. Without one transfer, Cam Ward, Miami is a 4-loss team.
The margin for error is razor thin this offseason and any missteps could be the difference between returning to prominence and floundering again next season, but the blueprint is there. Mike Norvell is going to make wholesale changes to his staff and it’s crucial that he brings in better coaches. He must hit the portal and have a hit rate like we’ve seen in the past when we crowned him the “portal king.” He must make tough decisions about NIL dealings that may involve showing some players the door.
However, that process worked for a team in the same conference. A team with less talent. A team that hired an unknown OC from the FCS level. A team that is not a potential powerhouse program like FSU. If it worked for them, why couldn’t it work for us? This season has been the worst in 5 decades and is frankly unacceptable at a place like FSU. But people are so quick to write off the same coach that was one play (Jordan Travis’ injury) from potentially taking FSU from a dumpster fire to a playoff team in a matter of 4 years. Will it happen? Only time will tell, but there is as much reason to believe it can happen as there is to say it can’t. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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