It is amazing how quickly things can change in college football. Towards the end of the 2023 season, Mike Norvell led the Seminoles back to prominence with 23 wins over two years including a 13-0 season and the program’s first conference title in almost a decade. All that was left to do was compete in the playoffs and try to bring home a national championship.
Through no fault of his own, the events that unfolded over the next few hours would scar the program so deeply that the wound left behind would fester into the following season and turned a once freezing cold seat and massive extension into a blazing hot stool of uncertainty.
We enter 2025 with a rebuilt staff around Mike Norvell in hopes of steering the program back in the right direction. Still, it feels like a win-or-die scenario, or there at least needs to be a drastic improvement to ensure an unsure future.
Recently our friends over at Chop Chat asked, “How many games does Mike Norvell need to win in 2025 to get off YOUR hot seat?” There’s a lot to unpack in answering that question, so here is my answer with some context provided.
First, I agree with Kelvin that whatever our opinion is as fans, does not mean the athletic department shares the same view. There are two truths that we must admit. 1) Winning 8 games (where most of the answers landed) is NOT the standard at FSU. 2) It is not in the best interest of Florida State to fire Norvell anytime soon due to a massive buyout, the cost of buying out his new staff, and the cost of bringing in another new staff to replace them.
While I don’t know what the athletic department’s bank account looks like, burning that kind of cash on top of funding all the other projects they have going on and needing to hire a new basketball coach would almost certainly cause immense financial stress. That’s why it is in all our best interests for Norvell and the new staff to succeed.
At the same time, another season like the last is unacceptable, period. Kelvin from Chop Chat even states that he does not believe 8-4 gets Norvell fired, which I agree with. I would even go as far as saying 7-5 wouldn’t either because of the financial repercussions of making that decision.
With that said, I think the first important step in answering this question is drawing the line in the sand between what gets Norvell and company more time and what gets him off the hot seat because, in my opinion, those are two different conversations.
For example, if FSU goes 8-4 in 2025, I can almost guarantee that Norvell will still be the head coach in 2026, but would he be off the hot seat? I would say that the answer is no. Sure, that shows improvement, but it’s an improvement from a mess he’s ultimately responsible for. Additionally, a major part of this answer is, “It depends on what it looks like.”
There is no doubt that Mike Norvell has done a standup job leading this program in most of the off-the-field aspects. He has also achieved success that many good coaches at good programs never have. It’s not easy going 13-0 and winning a conference title, and he did it within four years of taking over a program that was in a rough spot.
For instance, Miami has gone 21 years without winning the ACC and Florida hasn’t achieved an undefeated season in over 100 years of trying. Mike Norvell gets credit for that. He also must accept the blame for now having three losing seasons in five years (although, personally, I allow some grace knowing what he took over and doing it during a global pandemic). However, this is college football, and winning is what really matters, especially at a place like FSU.
Looking at FSU’s schedule for 2025, there are what I would consider seven “should win” games, one toss-up (at NCST), and four games that FSU will need to pull an upset in (Bama, Miami, CU, UF). Maybe NCST isn’t a toss-up but the horrors of playing at Carter-Finley and in a non-Saturday game are burned into my memory. That doesn’t mean FSU will win all of those “should win” games. After all, we shouldn’t have gone 2-10 last year.
For the Noles to get where they want to be they have little room for error. Let’s say they win all those 7 games and beat NCST but lose the rest. That gets us to 8-4, which is much better than 2-10 and shows significant progress. Yet, with losses to both rivals, Clemson and Alabama. Does that make us happy enough to turn the heat down on Norvell’s seat? Not for me it doesn’t. Not knowing this was a program that blew out LSU, beat both rivals, knocked off Clemson in Death Valley, and won the conference just a short time ago. That’s why I say getting another year is a different conversation than getting off the hot seat.
It also depends on what that record looks like. Let’s say hypothetically that FSU goes 8-4 but loses to Alabama, Clemson, NC State, and say Florida. They play all of them within one score and three of the four go on to make the playoffs. Well, that doesn’t look so bad, and you beat a rival. What if that 8-4 consists of blowout losses to Bama, Clemson, and both rivals? Now that 8-4 record looks terrible.
Again, this is why it all depends on what it looks like. I can live with 8-4 if FSU looks competitive in every game or is bit by the injury bug but still puts up a fight. Simply put, they can’t look like an unmitigated disaster like they did last year. That likely allows him to live to fight another day.
Now, for Norvell to get off MY hot seat, I would say that he needs to go a minimum of 9-3 or preferably 10-2 with the losses coming against the top teams I mentioned, and compete for the ACC Championship. I know that’s a tough ask because there are some good teams on this schedule that have talented rosters, and FSU is coming off a 2-win season.
That would mean FSU does not get upset in any games and pulls a few upsets themselves. Let me remind you that this is the bar to get off the hot seat, not to get another year. We basically need to pretend like 2024 never happened and get back to where we left off. After all, it is year six for Norvell.
Now that we have established what the results on the field need to look like, I want to address a few other factors that play a big role in this. The first is recruiting. This has been a hot-button issue since Norvell arrived. Sure, star ratings can be overblown at times, but the top programs that consistently compete for national championships are signing top 10 high school classes more often than not. I will admit, I’m not as against the portal as a big portion of our fan base, I just think they need to get it right like we have seen in the past.
Norvell has yet to sign a top 10 high school class since being hired at FSU. That needs to change. This staff has already done things on the trail that the last staff seemed incapable of doing, which gives me hope. I mention this aspect is because what if FSU goes 8-4 (good or bad), but lands a top 5 class? Would you risk losing that momentum and those commits to fire everyone after an 8-4 season? I wouldn’t. They would have a lot to prove on the field in 2026, but that recruiting success is something we have all been waiting for. What this staff does on the trail is not as important as what it does on the field, but it’s a huge factor.
Lastly, there also needs to be proof of concept in the hires that were made. I love the Tony White hire, and I think Gus Malzahn will be great in his role as OC, but that last one did not come without trepidation among FSU fans. Norvell was willing to risk his future on a guy whose best years were almost a decade ago. While I think he is a dynamic player, that same hire also chose to bring in a QB who has realistically only had a small handful of good games in college.
Norvell is someone who has been praised for his hiring choices in the past, and the last staff did get FSU to 23-4 and an ACC title. However, that staff found itself with a roster loaded with NFL talent two years they were successful but without it… well, you know how that went.
This is probably Norvell’s one chance to overhaul his staff and I would like to see these hires prove they were good ones. I have been impressed so far, but we have yet to see them coach a game in garnet and gold. The other aspect in hiring choices is because, let’s be honest, if Tony White does well at FSU, we are probably going to need another DC in a few years, as he will almost certainly be in the running for a head coaching job. That means we need to be able to trust who Norvell hires the next time because keep in mind that getting off the hot seat means you are here to stay and can meet the standard that’s been set for the foreseeable future.
Here’s an example of why expectations make a big difference. Last year, Shane Beamer went 9-4 at South Carolina and got himself off the hot seat earning an extension. At the same time, Kalen DeBoer went 9-4 at Alabama and fans were ready to break out the pitchforks and run him out of town. Now, those 9-4 records looked very different, as do the expectations at both programs. It’s not easy to follow Nick Saban at a place that has set the bar as high as Alabama has.
Although we’ve suffered through some hard times as of late, it’s also not easy to coach at a place like Florida State where a good season at most programs, like South Carolina, is a disappointment to us. 8-4 is not good enough. 2-10 sure as hell isn’t good enough. I’m as pro-Mike Norvell as they come and want him to succeed, but no person or coach is bigger than the program. You either meet the standard or you get fired.
So, to sum all of this up. I think it all depends on how the final record looks and how much progress the staff makes in recruiting. I think FSU does land somewhere between 7-5 to 9-3 next year and depending on what we just talked about that is good enough to extend the lifeline, but whether it gets him off MY hot seat is yet to be determined.
There was a breach of trust among Nole fans last year. We know it is unrealistic to expect to win a championship every year, but we NEVER expected to go 2-10. Now that I know Norvell is capable of producing that type of season, it’s going to take more than 8-4 to rebuild that trust and get him off the hot seat.
To be completely honest, outside of winning the ACC and making the playoffs, I’m not even sure he can get off my hot seat next year because it is more about showing they can sustain success than having a good season.
But I’m rooting for Norvell, and I hope it works out because he is a great person and leader, and his success is best for the program. He can go a long way in rebuilding that trust next year, but as for myself and many other FSU fans, we’re taking a wait-and-see approach. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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