The Seminoles are hitting the road to Raleigh, North Carolina, for a Friday night game against NC State with bowl eligibility on the line. The two teams are not where they want to be, with both having a disappointing 5-5 record and only 2 wins in ACC play.
For the Noles, they are coming off a 34-14 win over Virginia Tech, a team that beat NCST in Raleigh, at home. The Wolf Pack returns home after a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of Miami in Coral Gables.
I’ve said all along, this game is more about where it’s at than who it’s against. NC State has a good offense, but its defense is terrible. This is a game that I think FSU would win in Doak and probably on a neutral field… but that’s not where it’s being played.
The problem is, Florida State has lost 8 consecutive road games dating back to 2023. To make matters worse, NC State is 4-1 at home with wins over Virginia (9-2) and Georgia Tech (9-1). Of course, we can’t forget that Carter-Finley Stadium has also been a snake pit for FSU. The Noles are 0-3 in their last 3 trips to Raleigh and haven’t won there since 2016. FSU is 1-5 in the past 6 games against NCST. This is also a non-Saturday game, which we all hate, and FSU already lost one Friday night road game this season at Virginia. Long story short, ALL the football “juju” goes against FSU in this one.
Head coach Mike Norvell said they would make changes to their process this week to try to finally secure that elusive road win and hopefully clinch bowl eligibility ahead of their season finale against rival Florida in the Swamp. There would be nothing worse than losing to a rival under an interim staff to deny FSU’s opportunity at making a bowl, but Mike Norvell has been there before in 2021, when that exact situation happened. Before we get that far ahead, let’s look at what the Noles will face when they take on the Wolf Pack this Friday night.
The Wolf Pack offense, led by sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey, is by far the strength of this team. They average right at 30 points per game, ranking 56th in the country in scoring offense. NCST has scored over 20 points in 8 of 10 games. However, against the two best Power 4 scoring defenses they have faced, Notre Dame and Miami, they were held to just 7 points. Technically, on paper, FSU’s defense will be the third-best Power 4 defense they have faced this season.
What makes me nervous about this game is that NCST’s strength on offense is through the air, something FSU has struggled to defend against the better passing teams. They currently average 262 yards per game, ranking them 35th in FBS. They also rank 33rd in passing touchdowns and 13th in completion percentage. It’s a legitimate passing offense outside of some turnover issues, as they also rank 105th in interceptions with 10.
To be fair, they have only faced two passing defenses ranked in the top 50, and both held them under their season average. CJ Bailey has been solid for NCST. He’s had four games with over 300 yards passing, six games with multiple passing touchdowns, and he ranks 20th in QBR. He hasn’t been perfect, though. Bailey has two games with under 200 yards passing and has thrown the second-most interceptions in the ACC.
While Bailey is primarily a passing quarterback, he is also mobile. He’s carried the ball 66 times for 148 yards and 5 touchdowns. His mobility has also helped the Pack only give up 15 sacks, which ranks in the top 35. The Wolf Pack offensive line ranks 88th in pass block efficiency, so there will be opportunities to create pressure, but getting Bailey on the ground or at least making him throw off his spot will be key.
CJ Bailey’s completion percentage is what really stands out, coming in at almost 70%. He’s a very efficient passer, and it hasn’t been because they dink and dunk down the field either. Yes, 59% of his passes have gone for under 10 yards, but his deep ball has been good. On passes over 20 yards this season, Bailey has thrown 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception. The FSU secondary will be put to the test this week. Hopefully, Ja’Bril Rawls will be available after missing last week’s game against VT. We need all hands on deck this week in Raleigh.
Bailey’s pass catchers are a diverse group with 7 players having at least 20 receptions and 5 with around 300 yards or more. Terrell Anderson leads with 32 receptions for 552 yards (17.25 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. They use their tight ends heavily in this offense. Justin Joly has the most receptions on the team despite missing a game with an injury.
NCST’s ground game hasn’t been as strong as its pass game, and inconsistency has been the problem for the Pack. They have the 80th-ranked rushing offense, averaging 147 yards per game. They have rushed for over 200 yards in four games, but also been held under 100 yards three times. NCST has faced four rushing defenses ranked in the top 25, so it hasn’t been an easy road. They still rank 35th in yards per carry at 4.76 and 41st in rushing touchdowns with 20.
Running back Hollywood Smothers leads the rush attack with 127 carries for 823 yards (6.48 YPC) and 6 touchdowns. Freshman Jayden Duke Scott serves as their inside zone power back and has 445 yards (5.71 YPC) on 78 carries with 4 touchdowns. NCST is a 60/40 pass-to-run type of offense and ranks 116th in rush attempts per game.
I don’t love the way we match up against their offense, but solid defenses have shown the ability to hold them in check. Last week against Miami, they were held to only 7 points and 143 total yards! The Noles’ defense has tightened up over the past few weeks, and FSU will need a good performance by that side of the ball to walk out of Carter-Finley with a win.
NC State’s defense is well… not good. There’s no easy way to say it. They rank 118th in scoring defense, allowing 31.6 points per game, and have allowed over 500 yards three times in the past four games. In fairness, they have faced 7 scoring offenses ranked in the top 35. FSU’s offense will be one of the better ones they have faced, but the big question will be whether the offense travels this week. The FSU offense has scored 13 and 7 points in its past two road games.
NC State’s defensive line isn’t bad, but its secondary is. FSU needs to find ways to attack the second and third levels of the defense. The Wolf Pack ranks dead last in the FBS in passing defense, giving up 300 yards per game. They rank 99th in passing touchdowns, 99th in completion percentage, and have allowed over 340 yards in each of the past 4 games. Three of those were over 10 yards per attempt, and they have allowed 10 total passing touchdowns in those 4 games.
They have faced five top 30 passing offenses, so they have been tested quite a bit. FSU’s offense does not rely heavily on the pass, so this is another matchup that I don’t think favors FSU that heavily. Last week against Virginia Tech was the first time FSU won a game when Tommy Castellanos attempted over 20 passes. He might have to throw it more than we want in this game to take advantage of this secondary.
NC State’s rush defense has been somewhat middle-of-the-road. They allow an average of 141 yards per game (54th) and have given up over 200 yards three times, but also held 3 teams under 100 yards. FSU eclipsed the 200-yard mark for the first time in 5 games last week, and they will need to get the ground game going in this one, too. Although they rank 54th in yards per game, they are 84th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 84th in yards per carry, so it’s not an elite rush defense by any means.
Other areas of note on the defense that NCST has struggled with are turnovers, sacks, third-down defense, and allowing explosive plays of over 20 yards. The Wolf Pack ranks outside the top 100 in all four categories. They rank 69th in red zone defense, allowing scores on 84% of trips.
Everything says FSU is not going to win this game with their struggles on the road, at Carter-Finley, in non-Saturday games, and the fact that NC State has been good at home. However, watching them get dismantled in Coral Gables last week was eye-opening. This is also a team that lost at home to Virginia Tech, which FSU just beat by 20. This is a team that FSU can beat. I would be confident in an FSU win if this game were in Doak Campbell Stadium… Unfortunately, it is not.
The Noles need one win to secure bowl eligibility, and a win this week means UF can’t play spoiler next week. It feels like FSU needs to score 30 to win this one, so the offense will need to show up on the road for the first time since the Virginia game. NC State is top 10 in the red zone on offense with 25 touchdowns to only 5 field goals, so FSU needs touchdowns in this game. I worry about FSU’s secondary holding up against this passing attack, but if they can, I like FSU’s chances to sneak out of Raleigh with a win. It’s just hard to pick FSU in any road game right now, especially this one, but I have a feeling FSU finally snaps the losing streak.
If you’re going to the game on Friday, be sure to stop by and see us at our tailgate in the front row of the Stadium West Lot of Carter-Finley Stadium. Thanks, and Go Noles!!
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