Saturday night is set to be another exciting chapter in the historic rivalry between Florida State and Miami as the No. 18 Noles host the No. 3 Hurricanes in a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium. For the Seminoles they are looking to bounce back after last week’s double overtime loss at Virginia. For the Hurricanes, they are hoping to avoid what happened to FSU as they will be making their first trip outside of Hard Rock Stadium this season.
As crazy as it sounds in a rivalry that almost always had national title implications on the line throughout its history, this will be the first time since 2016 that the two teams have met when both are ranked. Furthermore, this is the first time since 2013 that they have met as ranked teams in Doak. In case you were wondering, FSU has won the last 5 meetings when both teams were ranked, dating back to 2005. What this means is there is more at stake than just bragging rights in Saturday night’s contest. The game means a lot to both programs, regardless of the rankings, but both programs need this win.
As we talk about the challenge FSU will face against Miami, the Hurricanes are playing well. They are 4-0, ranked number 3, and have wins over Notre Dame and Florida. However, Notre Dame is sitting at 2-2 after a slow start, and Miami only won by 3 points at home. Florida’s offense is TERRIBLE, and that game was 13-7 with four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. They did blow out USF, but they should have. Florida should have never lost to them in the first place.
My point is, yes, they get credit for winning the games, but they have been far from dominant on the scoreboard against teams with similar talent. The question for FSU fans is which team will show up to challenge the Canes on Saturday night? The one we saw manhandle Alabama or the one we saw lose to Virginia.
Notre Dame is technically an FBS Independent, but I will refer to them as a Power 4 for the sake of this preview to simplify things.
The Canes’ offense has been efficient this year, but it is nothing like last year’s top-ranked scoring offense led by Cam Ward. They are averaging 26.5 points per game vs Power 4 defenses. They put up the fewest yards and the lowest yards per play numbers against Notre Dame so far this season. They had a lower yards per play number against Florida than LSU and USF did against the Gators. However, they have done enough to win because they are backed by a much better defense this year. And the rain is solely responsible for those numbers, according to Miami faithful…
It’s not a flashy offense. They like to line up in condensed formations with not a lot of motion and just try to test your manhood. Miami wants to run right at you and get the ball into their playmaker’s hands in space. FSU will need to strap up and be ready for a physical fight for four quarters in this game.
They run it about 55% of the time and pass about 45%. Miami will try to leverage the quick passing game, with 62% of passes going for less than 10 yards. What worries me is that is exactly what UVA beat FSU with last week, so hopefully, we learned from that. They are 84th in explosive plays over 20 yards, so it’s not necessarily the home run you worry about, but the death by a thousand cuts, like we saw with UVA.
When you talk about Miami’s offense, it all starts up front with the offensive line. This is a massive, talented, and experienced group. They have protected quarterback Carson Beck better than any other passer in the FBS this season. FSU’s front seven played well vs Bama, but struggled against Virginia. This is going to be a BIG test for that group. It’s not all been perfect, though. Miami is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry vs Power 4 defenses.
Carson Beck takes over for Cam Ward after transferring in from Georgia, where he started the past two seasons. Beck is an experienced signal caller with 31 career starts under his belt. He has been efficient this season but has some areas that he has struggled. He has not pushed the ball downfield as effectively as he did at UGA, and that may have something to do with his arm injury. He made several errant throws against Florida, too. He has a 74% completion percentage with 972 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions this season. However, against the power 4 defenses, he has not performed the best, and Florida held him to just 160 yards (5.3 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
The key to slowing down Beck is to get pressure on him, but that is MUCH easier said than done. He’s only faced 17 pressures this entire season. For reference, FSU had 19 pressures against Alabama. If FSU can find a way to create pressure when no one else has, they could have success. Looking back to his time at UGA, Carson Beck has played in 6 games where he faced double-digit pressures. In those 6 games, he threw 6 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and took 14 sacks. He gets panicked under pressure so FSU MUST find a way to get Beck off his spot to avoid letting him sit back and pick them apart. Beck is only averaging 3.7 yards per rush (sack-adjusted) with an average of 2.5 rush attempts per game. He can run, but has not had to this season.
Slot receiver Malachi Toney leads the receiving corps and has been outstanding for a freshman. He leads the team with 22 receptions for 268 yards and has an impressive 81.8 reception percentage with 0 drops. LSU transfer CJ Daniels leads the receiving corps in touchdowns with 3 on 18 receptions, but 129 of his 191 yards came against Bethune-Cookman and USF. He had just 16 yards against Florida. Keelan Marion is another name to know as their third-leading receiver. He has 125 yards, but like Daniels, he struggled against Florida with one catch for 8 yards.
I recorded a podcast episode with a Miami guy this week, and he pointed out that Miami doesn’t have a guy who can take the top off a defense with Josiah Trader out. When he is set to return is unknown. He also advised that tight end play has been underwhelming this season, which is typically a big part of Cristobal’s offense.
The Canes have a pair of good running backs to carry the rock. Mark Fletcher Jr. is in his third season with Miami and has put up over 500 yards in each of his first two seasons. He’s already put up 388 yards (5.88 YPC) with 5 touchdowns and gashed Florida for 116 yards. CharMar Brown is a powerful back at 5’11”, 215 pounds. He’s put up 206 yards (4.2 YPC) with 4 touchdowns. Brown led Miami in receiving yards against Florida.
Miami’s defense has made a massive turnaround under new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. They did allow 24 points to Notre Dame, who was breaking in a new freshman quarterback. Florida’s offense is terrible, but Miami’s defense embarrassed them, allowing just 141 total yards.
They have a powerful defensive line with two NFL-caliber players in Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. FSU’s offensive line is going to be in for a tough test on Saturday night. One thing to watch is that Bain and Mesidor played every snap versus Florida and 48 of 60 snaps versus Notre Dame. Miami’s backups are nowhere near as good. If FSU’s offense can hit 70-80 snaps, I question how much gas would be left in the tank late in the game.
The Canes’ defense has not allowed over 100 rushing yards in any game this season, and as we know, Gus Malzahn’s offense is built on running the ball. FSU currently has the second-ranked rushing offense in the country and ran for over 200 yards against Alabama and Virginia. It’s going to be a battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.
With that said, Miami has not faced a rushing offense ranked in the top 50. So, while they have been good, this will be the best rushing offense they have faced. Miami has racked up 10 sacks this season, with 5 of those coming against Florida. DJ Lagway was put in a boot after that game, so I question how healthy he was to begin with. Miami only got to Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr once. They have solid but not special linebackers behind that defensive line, so that could be an area for FSU to try and attack.
Miami rebuilt its secondary through the portal, and so far, they have been pretty good. They are currently allowing 168 yards per game through the air. That number is somewhat inflated by Florida only throwing for 61 yards. Sure, Miami gets credit for that, but DJ Lagway missed a LOT of throws in that game. They are 68th in completion percentage allowed at 61.6%.
Miami is top 10 in third down defense and tied for 32nd in red zone defense. They have only allowed 11 explosive plays over 20 yards this season (8 pass – 3 rush). It is worth noting that Miami racked up 13 missed tackles vs Florida.
No matter how you slice it, this defense has come a long way. They are playing well and will present a challenge to FSU, but this is also the best offense Miami has faced, so I’m interested in seeing how both sides hold up. FSU will have to find a way to establish the run to have success. For all the talk about Miami’s front, I expect FSU’s offensive line to embrace the challenge.
When this game comes around, you can just about throw the stats and records out the window. Other than a couple of blowouts that have been traded in recent years, this game is typically decided by one score, hence the spread only being 4.5. I expect it to be another good game in Doak on Saturday night. I think we’ll see a Florida State team that responds to what happened last Friday.
To win this game, FSU needs to play far better than we saw on Friday night, but they have been a different team at home. Miami’s offense is not stellar, but it doesn’t have to be with their defense playing like it is. I come back to them beating Notre Dame by a slim margin, and the Irish were on the comeback in the second half. They just ran out of time. There’s also a decent chance that if Florida had any sort of offense, they might have won that game.
My keys to victory are 1) Finish! Tackle, wrap up, and get guys on the ground. Not doing this cost FSU big time at Virginia. 2) Pressure Carson Beck. This is much easier said than done, but FSU must find a way. I don’t think you need 5 sacks, although it would be nice, but you need to at least make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Florida got the most pressure on Beck this season, and it was also his worst game. 3) Establish the run. Again, it’s not easy, but I believe FSU will need to be close to 200 yards on the ground to win the game, and the Canes’ defense has not given up even half of that this season. 4) Bring the Juice! FSU looked confident and ready for a fight against Bama. They looked the exact opposite of that in Charlottesville. This is a big rivalry game at home at night in front of your fans. We need to see the level of intensity and physicality we saw in week 1.
For my prediction, I do believe that FSU will respond. I do believe the UVA loss will serve as a gut check. And I do believe they are a better team than we saw on Friday night. But which Florida State will we see on Saturday night? Miami is a good team with talent across the board. However, I think there is something to playing your first game on the road in front of what will be a rocking Doak Campbell Stadium. So, I have the Noles rebounding to upset Miami 31-27. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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