Florida State is less than two weeks away from kicking off the 2026 season with hopes of a redemption year for the record books. The best part of college football is that every team enters the season undefeated with high hopes for this year to be the year. Sure, the past looms in our minds, but it’s no longer actually relevant to the road ahead. We’ve seen remarkable turnarounds in recent history: Arizona State going from 3-9 to a playoff team, Indiana doing the same, and even FSU going from 5-7 to a 10-win team in 2022. With all the roster turnover in the current era, I don’t believe in limiting a team’s potential in the current year based on results from the previous one.
One thing the Noles will have to nail to achieve such a turnaround is the little things. A costly penalty here, a missed tackle there, toss in a few turnovers, and you can quickly turn a team that should have won 8 or 9 games into a 5-win team. We saw that firsthand last season. This is something Duce Robinson talked about at ACC Media Days in July. He spoke about how those little things they did not do right turned into results they did not expect. He also shared a quote on ACC Network’s road trip episode from Tallahassee that I love.
“If you’re too big to do the little things, you’re too little to do the big things.” – Duce Robinson
To paint a clearer picture, I went back and crunched the numbers on a few examples of the “little things” in wins and losses.
| Stat (per game avg.) | Wins (5) | Loses (7) |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0.8/G | 2.1/G |
| Penalties | 3.2/G | 6.9/G |
| Missed Tackles | 8.6/G | 11.8/G |
| Field Goals | 4/5 (80%) | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Yardage | Outgained opp. in 5/5 | Outgained opp. in 5/7 |
As you can see, the margin is not massive, but it is obvious. And keep in mind that FSU lost 4 games by one score and NC State was a one-score game with under two minutes left before FSU muffed a punt and closed the door on any hopes of a comeback, further driving the point home. Given the amount of close losses, that shows how an extra turnover, 4 extra penalties, 3 missed tackles, and a handful of missed field goals on average turned what could have been an 8 or 9-win season into another disappointment. When you’re trying to win in the margins, the little things matter in a big way.
One thing that has me hopeful for the upcoming season is that we have heard a lot of talk from this team and staff about accountability, player-led leadership, lack of egos, and commitment to putting in extra work to address those small details. From players and coaches getting to the facility at 4:30 am to hearing them hold each other accountable in practice with strong words and hard coaching. Attention to detail and taking care of the little things have been priorities for this team leading up to this season, but will it be enough? On the surface level, it appears that the type of culture that was the foundation for success on that 2023 team, something that has seemingly been absent the past two years, is finally moving back in the right direction, and that could prove meaningful.
After all, Indiana, the reigning national champions, weren’t the most talented team on the field every Saturday during their 16-0 run. They were, however, No. 1 in turnover margin (FSU 105th), No. 5 in fewest penalties per game (FSU 38th) and No. 9 in field goal percentage (FSU 120th). Ya know, the “little things” we just talked about. The one thing we kept hearing was about the culture within the program. Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza talked about it often, saying how everyone within the organization, from top to bottom, was aligned and pulling in the right direction. Yes, talent does matter, but FSU is not devoid of it with blue-chip players scattered around the skill positions and a few nice pieces in the trenches.
Last year’s team was more talented than its record. They were “on paper” the third-most talented team in the conference and finished at +76 yards per game in ACC play (third-highest), yet they finished tied for thirteenth. Those things simply don’t add up unless you’re talking about a team that found ways to lose games they shouldn’t have.
The same could be said about the 2024 team, just as the inverse could be said about the 2023 team, who did do those things right, and the win column reflected that. That is where the little things come into play, as Duce talked about. So, while I am encouraged that the culture and leadership appear to be in much better shape this year, it also leads to my biggest question of the entire 2026 season.
The One Question That Matters More Than Anything
The number one thing I’m watching for this season is not how FSU matches up every week. It’s not even the starting depth chart. It’s simply how that culture holds up when it gets put to the test, because it will. The Noles have a long and difficult road ahead with the toughest schedule in the ACC and an out-of-conference slate that features Alabama and Florida.
We’ve heard the right things mentioned at the podium before, but when adversity struck, these words fell flat. That is how one loss turned into two, then three, and was capped off with a fourth embarrassing loss to a bad Stanford team. That’s also how they lost to a bad Florida team under an interim staff and let an offense that averaged 18.8 points per game against Power 4 opponents hang 40 on them to end the season when they had all but given up. This program has not handled adversity well the past two seasons.
That said, I do see potential in this team. I do think they can overachieve and top the 6.5 win expectation set by Vegas, but to do so, they are likely going to have to take one, or a few, on the chin and keep fighting back. This schedule is front-loaded, with games against SMU and Alabama right out of the gate followed by trips to Louisville and Miami in back-to-back weeks. However, there are winnable games on this schedule, especially the back half of it, if they can fight off adversity should it come their way during the early stretch. However, if they fold under pressure, things can get ugly quick before they ever get there.
The words sound great, and honestly, they give me as much hope as anything else we’ve seen this offseason because culture is that important in college football. However, they don’t mean anything if they fall flat when put to the test. Doing the little things right every step of the way snowballs into success on a larger level.
Unless you think FSU is going undefeated this year (news flash, I don’t), there will come a time when a gut check will happen. How do they respond? Do they fold like a cheap tent in a windstorm, or do they fight through and not let one loss turn into more? If they can do that, this team has the talent and potential to exceed expectations. They will need the leaders to lead and the buy-in to be real. For all our sakes, I hope this time is different, and they are in the fight for the entire season. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!