Florida State got exactly what it wanted by opening the season a week before SMU. The Seminoles got live reps, a chance to knock off the rust, and most importantly, actual game film to identify their problems before facing one of the better teams in the ACC.
Unfortunately, they found plenty of problems.
FSU beat New Mexico State 34-17, but it was hardly the confidence-building performance you would expect from a team favored by more than 30 points. The Seminoles committed eight penalties for 85 yards, including one that wiped away a touchdown, struggled with communication and coverage on defense, and allowed an overmatched opponent to convert 10 of 17 third downs. The offense was better than the final margin suggested, scoring on six of nine possessions with four touchdowns that should have been five, but even that side of the ball had protection issues and missed opportunities.
Now the difficulty level increases considerably.
No. 19 SMU comes to Doak Campbell Stadium on Monday night as a three-point favorite with the total sitting at 52.5, producing an implied score of roughly 28-24. Our Plant The Spear model actually disagrees with the market and projects Florida State to win by 2 points.
I picked FSU to win this game before the season. After watching Saturday, I’m certainly less comfortable with that pick. But after digging deeper into SMU, I still see legitimate reasons to believe Florida State can win.
The question is whether the Seminoles can correct what New Mexico State exposed before Kevin Jennings and SMU get the chance to exploit it. And that’s the double-edged sword of playing first. Florida State got to put its mistakes on film and learn from them.
SMU got to watch them too.
This Feels Like A Make-Or-Break Game For Mike Norvell
Before getting into the X’s and O’s, it’s impossible to ignore the larger stakes surrounding this game.
Florida State’s opener looked bad. If the Seminoles beat SMU on Monday, nobody is going to care. Week 0 will get thrown into the “first-game weirdness” pile; FSU will be 2-0 with a ranked win, and the conversation immediately changes.
If they lose, Saturday suddenly matters a lot more.
Had Florida State beaten New Mexico State by 35 points and looked like a polished football team, a loss to No. 19 SMU could simply be explained as losing a competitive game to a good opponent. But after what we saw in the opener, another poor performance creates an entirely different narrative: maybe New Mexico State wasn’t just an ugly first game. Maybe Florida State simply isn’t very good.
That’s what makes Monday so important for Mike Norvell.
FSU entered this season carrying a 7-17 record over the previous two years. Norvell doesn’t have much benefit of the doubt left, and the boos heard inside Doak during a season-opening win showed exactly how little patience remains. I’m in that group. I wanted Florida State to move on from Norvell before this season, although I was willing to give him another opportunity to prove he could turn it around.
But eventually, you have to stop talking about 23-4.
Jimbo Fisher isn’t remembered only for winning a national championship. Bobby Bowden wasn’t allowed to coach forever because of everything he had accomplished previously. Florida State is a proud program, and at some point the standard has to become what the program is doing now rather than what it did several years ago.
A competitive loss to SMU wouldn’t necessarily end Norvell’s tenure by itself, but it would turn the pressure up considerably with Alabama immediately following and a Virginia team that already looks tougher than expected waiting after that. Lose Monday, and suddenly those next two games become enormous.
If Florida State gets blown out at home Monday night, I think it’s probably over. That’s how significant this game feels. Not that I think we travel to Tuscaloosa with an interim coach, but rather he would almost have to beat Alabama and Virginia not to get fired. Four of FSU’s next five FBS opponents are currently ranked (and Virginia probably should be), so the road doesn’t get any easier.
The Biggest Concern: Kevin Jennings Is Built To Attack What FSU Just Showed
SMU’s offense starts with Kevin Jennings, and this is where my biggest concern lies.
Jennings is an experienced veteran entering another season in Rhett Lashlee’s offense. He has finished among the top four ACC quarterbacks in passing yards and yards per attempt in each of the past two seasons, and although SMU reshuffled the offensive coordinator titles this offseason, Lashlee still calls the plays.
Schematically, this offense isn’t changing much.
The problem is how well Jennings’ style matches what Florida State struggled to defend against New Mexico State. According to the PFF numbers, FSU blitzed Trey Hedden on 50% of his dropbacks and generated pressure only 26.1% of the time. Hedden’s average time to throw was just 2.33 seconds, leaving little time for the FSU pass rush to get home.
Jennings averaged 2.66 seconds to throw last season.
He had only two games all year where that number climbed above three seconds. His highest was 3.69 seconds against Baylor, but Baylor blitzed him on an outrageous 73.3% of his dropbacks and still managed to pressure him 40% of the time. That’s the issue.
Florida State sent pressure constantly against New Mexico State without consistently getting home. Even worse, Hedden was actually more productive against the blitz because FSU frequently combined pressure with soft zone coverage behind it.
I still don’t understand the logic of bringing extra rushers while conceding easy underneath throws, but we watched this defense do versions of the same thing last season. Against Jennings, that combination could be fatal.
Approximately 60% of his passes last year traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield, and Jennings led the country in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage. SMU wants to get the ball out quickly, use space, stress leverage, and force defenders to tackle.
But Jennings isn’t simply a checkdown merchant. He also ranked inside the top 10 nationally in attempts of 20-plus yards, fifth in deep passing yards, ninth in touchdowns and 15th in completion percentage on those throws.
That’s what makes him difficult to defend. He’ll take everything underneath until the defense gets impatient, then he’ll take a shot over the top.
And SMU’s preferred areas of the field should make Florida State even more uncomfortable.
Jennings likes attacking the middle. Against New Mexico State, approximately 80% of the passing yards FSU allowed and both touchdowns came in that area. Hedden went 13-of-16 for 123 yards and a touchdown on throws between zero and nine yards and 8-of-10 for 111 yards from 10-19 yards. On deep shots, he went only 1-of-9.
Florida State’s defensive backs played far enough off the ball that they rarely got punished vertically. The underneath and intermediate areas were a different story.
If Florida State gives Jennings the same easy access, he is better equipped than Hedden to take those completions repeatedly, and SMU is better equipped to turn them into sustained scoring drives. He’s also a legitimate mobile quarterback, whereas New Mexico State essentially presented no quarterback-run threat at all. If FSU creates the same massive rushing lanes in the middle of the defense while blitzing, Jennings can punish those with his legs too.
This feels like a copy-and-paste version of last week’s test against a significantly better opponent. Florida State absolutely has to be better in the secondary or Jennings could have a massive night.
FSU Has To Find A Better Way To Create Pressure
There are really only two solutions.
Florida State either has to become significantly more effective when it blitzes or generate more pressure with four and give the coverage enough time to create sacks.
The second option is preferable.
SMU returns three starters from an offensive line that allowed only 19 sacks last season after allowing just 18 the year before. Two returning linemen earned All-ACC honors, and although the Mustangs weren’t particularly impressive running the football, they finished 95th nationally — they were 13th in passing offense.
That’s essentially what SMU wants to be. Run enough to keep you honest, then let Jennings control the game.
This is why I’m less concerned with Tony White’s obsession with “stopping the run” than I am with preventing another version of last year’s Miami game. Florida State can hold SMU to 100 rushing yards and still lose comfortably if Jennings throws for 350 because the defense sold out to remove a ground game that wasn’t the primary threat anyway.
Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael gives SMU a capable replacement at running back after losing its top two players at the position. Raphael rushed for 943 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but there is context behind those numbers. He carried the ball 232 times, the most by any ACC running back, and his 4.06 yards per carry ranked only 29th among conference backs.
Roughly 25% of his rushing production came against Texas Southern and a Boston College defense that finished 106th nationally against the run. In those two games, Raphael carried 42 times for 241 yards at 5.74 per carry. Against everyone else, he carried 190 times for 702 yards — just 3.69 per attempt.
Raphael is a legitimate Power Four back. He’s durable, useful as a receiver and capable of handling a heavy workload, but his profile suggests volume more than explosiveness.
Make him prove he can beat you. Don’t sacrifice the pass defense to stop him.
SMU Has Questions At Receiver, But Plenty Of Answers
The biggest personnel question on SMU’s offense is probably at receiver.
The Mustangs lost four of their top six pass catchers from last season, a group responsible for approximately 65% of the receiving yards and 58% of the touchdowns. That’s a meaningful amount of production to replace, especially for a group playing its first game together in a hostile road environment.
That doesn’t mean the cupboard is empty.
Yamir Knight returns after producing more than 600 yards and five touchdowns last season. SMU added an ECU transfer who had 583 yards in 11 games, and former Florida State tight end Randy Pittman adds another experienced option.
The group is capable. The question is how quickly everything comes together.
That’s another reason Florida State needs Doak to matter. New receivers making sight adjustments and communicating with their quarterback in practice is one thing. Doing it on third-and-seven in a loud stadium at night is another.
The Seminoles need to make SMU feel like it’s playing its first game.
SMU’s Defense Needs More Context Than The Rankings Provide
SMU finished 30th nationally in scoring defense last year at 20.5 points per game, but the profile underneath that number was bizarre.
Against the run, the Mustangs looked elite. SMU ranked 19th nationally, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and 112 yards per game. Opponents scored just five rushing touchdowns all season, tied with Ohio State for the fewest in the country.
Against the pass, they looked terrible. SMU allowed 283 passing yards per game, ranking 135th nationally, and surrendered 26 passing touchdowns.
Neither number tells the whole story.
The Mustangs faced an incredibly difficult collection of passing offenses. Six opponents ranked in the top 25 nationally in passing, eight ranked inside the top 50, and none of their FBS opponents finished worse than 80th. The average passing-offense ranking of those opponents was around 30th, and SMU faced more than 40 pass attempts per game, the most in the country.
So no, SMU’s secondary wasn’t really the second-worst group in America.
The Mustangs still routinely allowed opponents to exceed their season passing averages, so we shouldn’t completely excuse the results, but the schedule clearly inflated the raw yardage.
Their rushing-defense numbers deserve the opposite adjustment.
Seven FBS opponents ranked 100th or worse in rushing offense. None ranked inside the top 50. The average opponent ranked approximately 99th, and Louisville — the best rushing offense SMU faced — played without Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown.
The takeaway is straightforward: SMU’s pass defense wasn’t quite as bad as the raw ranking suggests, and its run defense probably wasn’t quite as dominant as the raw ranking suggests.
That matters a lot for this matchup, knowing FSU wants to be a run-heavy team.
SMU’s Defense Lived On Creating Mistakes
The more revealing description of SMU’s 2025 defense is aggressive and opportunistic.
The Mustangs intercepted 18 passes, eighth-most nationally, and generated 28 total takeaways, fifth-most in the country. And the win-loss splits show how important those turnovers were.
In SMU’s victories, opponents averaged only 6.5 yards per attempt and threw 12 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. In losses, those numbers jumped to 8.2 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
When SMU stole possessions, the defense worked. When it didn’t, opponents attacked it successfully.
That gives Ashton Daniels a very clear assignment Monday night. He does not need to beat Kevin Jennings in a passing-statistics competition. An 18-of-27 performance for 235 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions would be considerably more valuable than throwing for 340 yards with two picks.
Take what the run game creates. Use more quick game to help Daniels and the offensive line. Get the ball out before protection problems can develop, and use Daniels’ legs considerably more than Florida State did against New Mexico State. That’s why you brought in a dual-threat quarterback.
Throwing the ball downfield has never been Daniels’ greatest strength, but that doesn’t mean he can become overly conservative either. There were throws available Saturday that he didn’t attempt. He has to trust what he sees and understand that avoiding every risky throw isn’t necessarily good quarterbacking. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger.
Florida State also has to solve its problem at right tackle, or at least have a shorter leash if Chimdia Nwaiwu struggles again. SMU’s defensive line has plenty to prove, but obvious passing downs are exactly where Florida State doesn’t want this game going.
Make SMU’s New Defensive Line Prove Itself
This might be the matchup I like most for FSU. SMU lost all four starting defensive linemen from last year’s group, and those weren’t ordinary losses. The starting front combined for 193 tackles, 42.5 tackles for loss, and 24 sacks.
That accounted for approximately 71% of SMU’s sacks and 53% of its tackles for loss. The rest of the defensive line combined for only 11 tackles for loss and four sacks. Replacing that kind of production is difficult.
SMU attacked the portal and has options. There are several interior defenders weighing 300 pounds or more, so this isn’t some undersized group Florida State should expect to bully automatically. But the projected replacements are largely semi-productive G5 transfers, P4 rotational pieces and returning players without significant proven production at this level.
One addition had impressive numbers at UMass, but this isn’t Alabama or Miami rolling another wave of highly recruited, proven Power Four defensive linemen onto the field. Could SMU’s new front be good? Absolutely. But Florida State shouldn’t assume it is.
The Seminoles ran for 217 yards against New Mexico State, and the rushing attack was probably the most encouraging thing about the opener. FSU needs to stay committed to it Monday and make SMU’s rebuilt front earn the reputation created by last year’s defense.
That also keeps Daniels out of obvious passing situations, shortens the game and keeps Jennings standing on the sideline. All three sound pretty good to me.
SMU does return its top three linebackers, and all three graded well last season, so running the football won’t simply be easy because the defensive line changed. That second level could be the strength of the entire defense.
But the first question still has to be asked. Can the new front keep those linebackers clean? Florida State needs to find out.
Ahmaad Moses Returning Is A Big Deal
One development I certainly didn’t enjoy discovering was Ahmaad Moses receiving a temporary restraining order that allowed him to return for another season.
Moses was SMU’s leading tackler last year with more than 100 stops and also led the team in interceptions. SMU originally appeared set to replace three starters in the secondary, but his return reduces that number to two and gives the Mustangs back one of their most productive defenders.
The secondary already deserved more respect than the 135th-ranked passing-defense number suggested, and Moses returning only strengthens it. SMU did lose another highly productive safety, but this is no longer the rebuilt secondary we originally expected FSU to face.
Again, that’s why Daniels’ job isn’t to chase yards. Run the football, take calculated shots when they’re available and protect possession.
There Are Two Reasons I Still Like Florida State
After everything we saw Saturday, why am I still picking FSU? There are two major reasons.
The first is that SMU was legitimately a different team away from Dallas last season.
Jennings completed 74.2% of his passes at home, averaged 8.9 yards per attempt and threw 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions, producing a 170.7 passer rating.
Away from home and at the neutral-site bowl, those numbers fell to 59.8% completions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a passer rating around 128.
Even if you isolate only true road games, the important trend remains: Jennings threw at least one interception in every one of them. That doesn’t suddenly make a very good quarterback bad. It means home field matters.
And Jennings wasn’t the only part of SMU that changed away from Dallas. The Mustangs went 3-3 in true road games and only 2-4 against the spread. At home, SMU committed 34 penalties for 317 yards, averaging 4.9 penalties and 45.3 yards per game. Away from Dallas, including the bowl, those numbers jumped to 57 penalties for 604 yards — 8.1 penalties and 86.3 yards per game.
That’s more than three additional penalties and approximately 41 extra penalty yards each game.
Even the red-zone defense changed dramatically. SMU allowed touchdowns on only 29.2% of opponents’ red-zone trips at home. Away from home and at the neutral site, that number jumped to 52.2%. In losses, it climbed to 56.3%.
There is enough evidence here to say it isn’t just one random split. SMU was genuinely less clean away from Dallas. Now the Mustangs open their season at night in Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State needs to make that matter.
Game 2 vs. Game 1 Might Be FSU’s Biggest Advantage
The second reason is timing.
Under Rhett Lashlee, SMU is 0-4 against its first Power-conference opponent of the season. The Mustangs lost to Maryland in 2022, Oklahoma in 2023, BYU in 2024 and Baylor in double overtime last season.
Monday will also be the first time during Lashlee’s tenure that SMU’s actual season opener comes against a Power-conference opponent. And the Mustangs haven’t always been sharp in previous openers.
The 2024 SMU team that eventually reached the College Football Playoff opened against a Nevada team that finished 3-10 and entered the fourth quarter trailing 24-13 before escaping with a 29-24 win.
Last season, SMU beat FCS East Texas A&M 42-13 (the same team Florida State beat 77-3 one week later), but the final score hid some warts. Two SMU touchdowns came on interception returns, meaning the offense generated only 28 points, and the Mustangs committed three turnovers.
Florida State’s advantage isn’t simply that it played last week. It’s that FSU knows what’s broken.
The Seminoles have game film showing their coverage busts, communication problems, offensive-line issues, substitution mistakes and ineffective pressures. They got a chance to tackle somebody else, work through a new quarterback and offensive line, and learn what happens when their defensive calls get attacked by somebody who isn’t wearing the same jersey in practice.
Now they have to prove those reps were actually worth something. Because SMU gets an advantage too. The Mustangs saw every one of those mistakes and had an extra week to figure out how to attack them. That’s what makes this such an interesting coaching game.
What Florida State Has To Do
Offensively, the formula should begin with patience. Run the football and remain committed to it. Use Daniels’ legs more, incorporate quick-game concepts that help the offensive line, and force SMU’s rebuilt defensive front to prove it can replace the production that left.
Daniels has to take the opportunities SMU gives him without trying to become Kevin Jennings. Protecting the football is essential against a defense that built much of its success around turnovers.
Defensively, the challenge is far greater. Florida State needs to generate pressure without constantly sending extra defenders, disguise the post-snap picture, and prevent SMU’s quick passing game from living comfortably underneath. Communication, alignment and spacing have to improve dramatically.
The rotation probably needs to tighten too. Chris Jones, Mikai Gbayor and Caleb LaVallee have separated themselves at linebacker and need to play. Florida State also needs more size inside, which should mean more snaps for the bigger interior options like Wynn and Sanders where applicable, rather than rotating simply for the sake of rotating.
Most importantly, Tony White has to show that what happened Saturday is actually fixable.
Because if Florida State once again sends pressure, fails to reach the quarterback and leaves huge cushions underneath, Jennings is going to take those free yards all night. And eventually he’ll take the deep shot too.
Final Thoughts
SMU is probably the better team on paper. But games aren’t played on paper, and Florida State gets a very particular version of this matchup.
It’s SMU’s Game 1 and FSU’s Game 2. It’s at Doak Campbell Stadium at night. SMU is replacing enormous defensive-line production against the part of Florida State’s offense that looked best in the opener. The Mustangs also bring a rebuilt receiving corps into an environment where their quarterback, penalties and overall defensive performance all showed meaningful road regression last season.
If this game were in Dallas, I’d pick SMU. If this were Week 7 and the Mustangs had six games to settle their new defensive front, work their receivers into defined roles and clean up the early-season issues that inevitably appear, I might pick SMU then too.
But that isn’t the game Florida State has to play.
The Seminoles have legitimate situational advantages Monday night. They have a rushing attack capable of stressing SMU’s biggest personnel question. They have home-field results that suggest Doak can matter. And they have something SMU doesn’t have yet: 60 minutes of actual football showing them exactly where they need to improve.
Now comes the uncomfortable part. They actually have to improve.
If Saturday’s problems were mostly communication, execution and first-game mistakes, Florida State has every opportunity to win this football game. If the lack of pressure, soft coverage and protection issues are structural problems that can’t be fixed in a week, Kevin Jennings and SMU are exactly the wrong opponent to face.
For Mike Norvell, there probably isn’t much runway left to figure out which one it is. Open the playbook. Pull out all the stops. Leave it all on the field..
I still think Florida State finds a way. Prediction: Florida State 28, SMU 27