At last, college football is back in Tallahassee. Florida State will open the 2026 season Saturday night against New Mexico State inside Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on The CW. It will be just the second meeting between the two programs, with FSU winning the first 36-0 all the way back in 1964.
Unlike last year’s opener against Alabama, this one comes with considerably less national attention and considerably less risk. New Mexico State went 4-8 last season and enters year 3 under Tony Sanchez after going 7-17 during his first two seasons. The betting market reflects the talent disparity, with Florida State currently favored by 30.5 points and a total sitting around 53.5. That breaks down to an implied score of roughly 42-10 (Tennessee beat them 42-9 last year). Florida State should win this game comfortably. That doesn’t mean Saturday is meaningless, though, far from it.
After finishing 5-7 last season, Florida State enters 2026 with plenty to prove. And while beating New Mexico State won’t answer whether the Seminoles are ready to contend with the better teams on their schedule, how they beat them can give us our first clues.
There is also a practical reason FSU needs to use this game wisely. SMU comes to Tallahassee nine days later for the ACC opener, followed by a bye and a trip to Alabama. This is a tune-up game in a live game setting against a real opponent. It’s a chance for Ashton Daniels to get comfortable running the offense, for a rebuilt offensive line to develop cohesion, for Tony White’s defense to work through any communication issues and, hopefully, for Florida State to get its starters off the field before the fourth quarter and start building depth.
There are no bonus points for winning by 50, but there would be red flags for a struggle win. There should be a noticeable difference between these two teams, and that’s what I’m looking for.
Offensive Preview
The first thing I want to see from Florida State’s offense is pretty simple. Move people. New Mexico State’s defense wasn’t terrible last season, but it wasn’t particularly difficult to move the football against either. The Aggies allowed 27.6 points and 401.8 yards per game, including 165 rushing yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry. Opponents also threw for 236.8 yards per game and 25 touchdowns through the air.
The front wasn’t overly disruptive, either. New Mexico State generated only 19 sacks in 12 games last season. Its two leading pass rushers, Ezra Christensen and Jamall Thompson Jr., combined for 10 of those 19 sacks and are no longer on the roster. That makes this a good opportunity for perhaps the biggest question surrounding Florida State’s offense (the o-line) to show some dominance.
FSU is replacing all five starters from last year’s offensive line, and Herb Hand was still working through combinations during fall camp. There has been optimism about the group’s progress, but talking about cohesion in August and displaying it against another team are two entirely different things. This is the kind of matchup where Florida State should be able to find out what it has without putting Ashton Daniels in survival mode.
I’d like to see the Seminoles establish the run early with Kromah, Singleton and Wisner. Stay ahead of the chains and force New Mexico State to start committing extra bodies toward the box. FSU has typically run all over lesser opponents, and going north of 200 yards on the ground should almost be a mandatory box to check in this kind of game.
From there, Florida State has more than enough talent at receiver to create problems downfield with Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, Jayvan Boggs and Jasen Lopez. The Aggies will operate from a multiple front, running a 4-2-5 defense primarily, but also showing 3-3-5 principles, which can create some uncertainty about where pressure is coming from. That’s something worth watching with a new offensive line, but nothing they shouldn’t be used to after seeing it every day in practice.
But confusing the protection and physically beating it are two different things. Florida State shouldn’t spend Saturday night playing third-and-long whack-a-mole against simulated pressures. Run the football, stay on schedule and make New Mexico State defend the entire field.
There is some experience behind the defensive front. Linebackers Tory Gethers and Sone Aupiu combined for 156 tackles last season, while Gethers added three sacks and Aupiu finished with 5.5 tackles for loss. Cornerback Josiah Charles and safety Nick Session also return in the secondary.
However, the Aggies suffered a significant blow during fall camp when safety Bernock Iya suffered a lacerated liver and could miss the entire season. That’s a major loss considering Iya led New Mexico State with four interceptions last year while adding 53 tackles, three pass breakups, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown.
And that brings us to the one thing FSU cannot do offensively. Give New Mexico State extra possessions. The Aggies intercepted 15 passes and recovered nine fumbles last season. They may give up yards, but they showed an ability to create takeaways, finishing top 15 in turnovers gained last season.
That’s the equalizer in a game like this. A turnover creates a short field. A short field becomes points. Then maybe you give up a special teams play, miss another scoring opportunity, and suddenly we’re all sitting there in the second quarter wondering why a four-touchdown favorite is in a football game. No thanks.
Daniels doesn’t need to be Superman on Saturday. In fact, that’s almost the point. Run the offense. Take the easy throws. Use his legs when they are available. Hit explosives when New Mexico State gives them up.
And protect the football. If Florida State does that, the scoreboard should take care of itself.
Defensive Preview
This side of the matchup is a little more interesting than New Mexico State’s 21.6 points per game from last season might suggest. Not enough to make me worried about the outcome. But enough that Florida State can’t sleepwalk through it.
Offensive coordinator David Yost wants to play with tempo, spread the field and use quick throws, screens and underneath routes to force defenders to tackle in space before opening opportunities farther downfield.
And while New Mexico State struggled offensively last season, the passing game was considerably more respectable than the ground game. The Aggies averaged 250.7 passing yards per game compared to just 77.3 rushing yards, which ranked dead last nationally. They averaged only 2.6 yards per carry and allowed 34 sacks. That is the matchup Florida State needs to attack.
New Mexico State added seven offensive linemen as part of a 36-player newcomer class this offseason, which tells you just about everything you need to know about how Sanchez viewed that position group. Tony White’s calling card has been a defense that is solid against the run. We saw flashes of that last year, but it was inconsistent to say the least. You won’t answer the concerns on the defensive line in a game like this, but bottling up the run and generating 5+ sacks would sure make us all feel a little better heading into the SMU game.
The Aggies will also have a new quarterback in Furman transfer Trey Hedden, who threw for 2,967 yards with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last season at the FCS level. He’s an experienced player with enough arm talent to operate Yost’s offense, but jumping from FCS to G5 presents its own challenges, let alone facing a P4 team in your first start.
He has some weapons to work with. The name to know is TK King. King missed the first portion of last season but caught 41 passes for 588 yards and three touchdowns in just eight games. His 73.5 receiving yards per game led Conference USA, and he’s also a former First-Team All-Mountain West kick returner. He’s someone FSU needs to know where he is.
New Mexico State also added Delaware State running back James Jones, who averaged nearly 10 yards per carry last season at the FCS level, while Dijon Stanley returns after averaging 4.1 yards per carry in an offense where virtually nothing about running the football came easily. There is some legitimate skill talent here. The problem is everything between them.
New Mexico State couldn’t run the ball consistently last season, couldn’t protect the quarterback consistently, and turned the football over 24 times. That should be blood in the water for Florida State’s defense.
The game plan doesn’t need to be complicated. Win first down. Make New Mexico State prove it can run the football. Get Hedden into obvious passing situations and then attack a rebuilt offensive line that allowed nearly three sacks per game last season. If Florida State is routinely getting New Mexico State into second-and-9 and third-and-7, I don’t think the Aggies have much chance of sustaining drives.
What FSU cannot do is let Yost’s tempo create busted assignments. Quick screens. Swing passes. RPOs. A shot play after getting the defense staring into the backfield. That’s how New Mexico State can steal yards without having to physically beat Florida State for 10 or 12 plays. We’ve heard repeatedly about how much further along this defense is in year two. I don’t expect perfection in the first game of the season, but there were times the defense looked uncoordinated last year. I want to see them settle in and start to look like a well-oiled machine against a lesser opponent.
And that’s really the main thing I’m watching closely on this side of the football: Does Florida State make them earn everything? Make King catch the five-yard pass and tackle him for five yards. Don’t turn it into 45. Make Jones run through a loaded box. Don’t lose a gap and let him hit daylight. Make Hedden consistently beat your coverage while your pass rush is coming. Don’t hand him explosives because somebody’s eyes were in the wrong place. Don’t have linebackers get exposed in coverage. Florida State has the athletic advantage at virtually every level of this matchup. Play like it. It’s time to see the head-hunting physicality we’ve heard about throughout camp on display.
Final Thoughts
For me, this game is less about the final score than what happens inside of it, although both are important. We already know Florida State should win. What I want to know is whether the Seminoles look like they’re ready for what comes next.
Can the offensive line create movement? Can Florida State run the football when everyone knows it wants to run? Can they score touchdowns in the red zone? Does Ashton Daniels look comfortable and in command? Can the defense overwhelm an offensive line that struggled badly last season? Can FSU tackle in space and eliminate cheap explosive plays? Most importantly, Ashton Daniels should leave the field with a clean jersey and an impressive stat line.
And finally, can the Seminoles play a clean football game? Because there really aren’t many realistic paths for New Mexico State to win this matchup. But things like turnovers, penalties, blown assignments, and special teams mistakes could contribute to a game that’s closer than it should be. Those are the little things that turned last year’s team into a 5-win disappointment when they should have won 8 or 9 games. FSU simply cannot afford to repeat those mistakes with what lies ahead on the schedule.
If Florida State protects the football, owns the line of scrimmage and prevents New Mexico State from manufacturing cheap points, the Aggies simply shouldn’t have enough answers.
As for what this should look like? I’d like Florida State to establish control early, take a multi-score advantage into halftime and spend the fourth quarter getting meaningful reps for the second- and third-team players. It doesn’t have to be perfect. Season openers rarely are. But if FSU is still fighting for its life deep into the second half, we’re probably no longer talking about New Mexico State. We’re talking about Florida State. And not for the reasons we’d like. Start fast. Bury them quick. Turn the focus to the massive Labor Day matchup against SMU. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
Prediction: Florida State 45, New Mexico State 10 | FSU Win Probability: 99%