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Florida State is looking to bounce back from a 0-2 start and finally put a W in the win column as they prepare to welcome Mike Norvell’s former program into Tallahassee on Saturday. Memphis may be a Group of 5 team, but they are 2-0, ranked #25 in the coaches poll, and will look to pull the upset against the struggling Seminoles. Mike Norvell and Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield might be friends, but it will be all business when things kick off inside Doak Campbell Stadium. Despite the familiarity between the two coaches, these programs haven’t met since 1990 with FSU holding a 10-7-1 record against the Tigers.
Memphis won 10 games in 2023 and already has two convincing wins this season. However, the level of competition they have faced in those two games is nowhere near what they will see against FSU even with their struggles. The Seminoles are currently a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under at 52.5 points. Bettors may have placed 78% of tickets on the Seminoles, but 87% of the money is currently riding on the Tigers to win the game outright. Florida State has a sizeable talent edge in this one with the 13th most talented roster in the 247 Talent Composite vs. Memphis at 72nd, but that hasn’t meant much as the Noles had the same advantage in the previous two games.
In game one, Memphis blew out 0-3 FCS North Alabama 40-0. The Tigers were a 38.5-point favorite, so that was to be expected. The main takeaway from that game was that Memphis only managed to rush for 59 yards averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. In UNA’s two other games against FCS teams, they gave up 176 & 338 rushing yards. Memphis did move the ball on the ground much better in game two, but it’s a stat worth noting. The Tigers successfully threw the ball with quarterback Seth Henigan going 22/30 (73.3%) for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Memphis defense that struggled last season, pitched a shutout in game one allowing just 185 yards to UNA.
In game two, the Tigers faced the back-to-back Sunbelt champion Troy Trojans and got another convincing 38-17 win. However, this Troy team is not the same as the past two years. They ranked 129th in returning production this season, were without their starting center and starting running back for the first half, and lost their starting quarterback early in the second quarter. Memphis was favored by 19.5 points and won by 21, so this was also the expected result. They say good teams win and great teams cover, so while Memphis is doing what they are expected to do against bad teams, Florida State has lost two in a row as double-digit favorites so I give them credit for taking care of business.
The Tigers ran the ball for 211 yards averaging 7.3 yards per carry against the Trojans. However, this time, the pass game was the aspect that struggled going 20/30 (66.7%) for only 161 yards and 1 touchdown. It is worth noting that Troy also gave up over 200 rushing yards in their week one game vs. Nevada. The Memphis defense held Troy to only 251 yards, but after the Trojans lost their starting quarterback, the offense went from bad to worse. As I mentioned, when watching this game, even with Florida State’s struggles, the size and athleticism of FSU vs. Troy are night and day.
Memphis’ strength is its offense led by veteran quarterback Seth Henigan. The Tigers had the 6th-ranked scoring offense in 2023 averaging 39.4 points per game, and so far in 2024, they are right on par averaging 39 PPG. The Tigers currently have the longest streak of scoring 20+ points per game in FBS at 29 consecutive games. That is a stat that makes me nervous because FSU is allowing an average of 26 PPG while also averaging under 20 PPG on offense. It seems clear that the Noles will need to score well into the 20–30-point range to win this game.
Memphis has a plethora of weapons on this offense in both the pass and run game. It all starts at the quarterback position because Memphis is a pass-heavy team. Seth Henigan is a rarity in college football these days being a four-year starter. He has eclipsed the 3,000-yard mark in every season, with 2023 being his best season yet. When watching the Troy film, Henigan doesn’t appear to be a prolific game changer, but he is an experienced veteran who is very good and does not make many mistakes.
Memphis will take its fair share of shots downfield; however, they primarily live in the short passing game. In 2023, 60% of Henigan’s passes were under 10 yards, and so far in 2024, those numbers are the same through the first two games. They struggled to stretch the field vertically against Troy going 3/10 on passes over 10 yards and 1/4 on passes over 20 yards. Henigan will run the ball on occasion and had a 20-yard scamper vs. Troy, but he is nowhere near the dual-threat quarterback FSU faced in the first two games. Something to note at QB is that if Henigan were to miss any time, Memphis’ backup quarterbacks have zero snaps of experience. They didn’t even play a backup in the 40-0 blowout in game one.
At receiver, Memphis has two legitimate threats to know about. Roc Taylor is a 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver who was a 1k-yard receiver for the Tigers last season. Taylor finished last season with an impressive 71.4% contested catch percentage, and a 6.8% dropped pass rate in 2023. He’s a big-bodied sure-handed target for Henigan and leads the team with 9 receptions for 114 yards in 2024.
DeMeer Blankumsee is a dynamic weapon in the slot who put up 896 yards last season and led the team in touchdowns. He’s currently the second-leading receiver in 2024 and is also sure-handed with a 70% reception rate. Memphis does like to use their big tight ends (6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5), and both have the only receiving touchdowns so far this season. This is an experienced and productive group paired with a veteran passer. It’s no wonder the Tigers had a top-10 passing offense in 2023.
Memphis lost their top running back from a year ago who put up over 1,600 all-purpose yards. Then, in game 1 they lost their leading returner Sutton Smith for the season. While that left big shoes to fill, the Tigers have a very good running back who has stepped up in the starting role. Mario Anderson Jr. was a D2 All-American who transferred to South Carolina and led the Gamecocks in rush yards last season (712) before transferring to Memphis. Anderson leads the Tigers in rush yards this season and had a big game vs Troy going for 125 yards on 17 attempts (7.4 YPC) and 2 touchdowns. He is a thick back, who is still athletic and can run around or over defenders. Anderson shares duties with Greg Desrosiers Jr., who began his career at Louisville and UMass before landing at Memphis.
In the trenches, Memphis lost three starters from last season but got help from the portal to rebuild this unit. While 3 of their starting 5 are first-year players at Memphis, all five have over 1k snaps of experience and 2 of 5 have over 2k. This is a solid and experienced unit that has settled in after the first game with yards per carry tripling from game one to game two and their pressure rate allowed being cut down by 11.4%. However, they have yet to face a Power 5 caliber defensive line, so this will be their biggest test. I suspect with Henigan being less of a run threat, FSU may let their defenders pin their ears back and go after him.
I like this matchup for FSU better than the first two games because Memphis is a more pass-heavy team. Although the defense has struggled through two games, we feel the secondary is the strength of Florida State’s defense. Now, they have yet to be tested this season because teams have not had to pass, but most of the players are proven. The key will be to contain the run and put pressure on Henigan, so he doesn’t sit in the pocket and pick apart this defense.
Memphis did not use a lot of motion against Troy which is something that FSU has struggled to handle. I suspect we will see more of it this week from the Tigers. This is a game that I think FSU can win the battle up front. However, Memphis has a good offense with legitimate weapons. It will be crucial to play disciplined and tackle better to prevent those playmakers from turning short gains into explosive plays.
While the Memphis offense led the charge in 2023, the other side of the ball had a rough year finishing with the 95th-ranked scoring defense. For 2024, they will be under the direction of new DC Jordon Hankins, who previously served as the linebackers coach and interim DC in the bowl game. The Tigers primarily run a 3-3-5 defensive scheme and return 65% of its production from a year ago. The question for Memphis will be how much this side of the ball has improved in 2024. So far, they have pitched a shutout and held Troy to 17 points, so things are off to a good start. Luckily for the Tigers, and painfully for the Noles, they will face another bad offense this week. The Seminoles have struggled to put up points this season averaging just 17 PPG (118th).
Probably the most frustrating aspect has been a lack of effectiveness in the run game. FSU currently has the 128th-ranked rushing offense and was held to an embarrassing 21 yards vs. Boston College. However, when watching the tape of Memphis vs. Troy, the Tiger’s defensive front was not that intimidating, so this could be a “get right” game for the Seminoles offensive line which was supposed to be one of its strengths this season. Will it happen? That’s the million-dollar question. Memphis doesn’t rotate a lot on defense. They played 39 guys vs. UNA but then settled in on only 19 vs. Troy. While we sometimes feel that FSU rotates too much, their depth may be able to wear down this Memphis defense throughout the game.
The Tigers’ defensive line consists of a core of guys who are upperclassmen with experience. Last season, they struggled to create pressure finishing 93rd in sacks. They have gotten to the quarterback 4 times this season already, but keep in mind the teams they have played. They did make a few splash plays in the backfield vs. Troy, but the Trojan’s offensive line consistently got a decent push. The strength of this Memphis defense is the linebackers. The unit is led by former ETSU transfer Chandler Martin who led the team in tackles, TFLs, and sacks in 2023. He is flanked by Elijah Herring, who was Tennessee’s top tackler from a year ago. They are joined by Matt Hudson, a two-year starter who transferred in from Harvard.
Memphis had the 124th-ranked passing defense in 2023, so they will be looking for improvement this season despite losing their leaders in interceptions and PBUs, who both transferred out. They also lost a 13-game starter at safety. However, the Tigers have quite a bit of experience across the 5-man defensive backfield. Cornerback Kobe Minor is a 5th-year Power 5 transfer with 864 snaps of experience. Across from Minor is Davion Ross who is also a 5th-year player who transferred in from EKU and has played over 1,600 snaps. Safeties Greg Rubin and AJ Watts both have over 2,000 snaps of experience and Rubin’s have all been with the Tigers while Watts transferred in from Akron/LA Monroe. The third safety, An’Darius Coffey is another 5th-year player who has played all 486 of his snaps with the Tigers.
Memphis will bring pressure from the second and third levels of the defense, so FSU needs to be prepared with its protections. Florida State HAS to run the ball better this week, period. So far this season, defenses have not shown any respect to the passing game by loading the box providing a numbers disadvantage for the Noles. For FSU to successfully run the ball, they will need the passing game to perform more efficiently this week. I say more efficiently because I hope we don’t ask DJ to throw the ball 42 times again. However, when they do ask him to throw the ball, it has to be more on target and the receivers have to eliminate the drops.
Much to fan’s displeasure, DJ Uiagalelei is listed as the starting quarterback again this week. The good news is that he will have a new and talented target to throw to in former 5-star Hykeem Williams. If he can connect with him, Williams is a threat to turn a 4-yard pass into a 40-yard touchdown as we saw last year vs. Syracuse.
The biggest question on Seminole fans’ minds will be whether we see Brock Glenn this week. I anticipate him having packages to get him involved in the game plan, but if DJ struggles AGAIN, it would be very disappointing if Norvell did not make the change at least to see what the young gun-slinger has. If FSU loses, DJ plays badly, and the switch never happens, I suspect that will be when Mike Norvell officially loses the fan base. I hope we see a better performance from the veteran signal caller, but I’m just as skeptical as everyone else until I see it happen in a game. However, I would like to see a game plan that doesn’t involve putting the game on his arm because that is not a recipe for success.
Florida State has gotten off to a dismal start to the season, but the bye week came at a great time. The focus was on fixing the fundamentals before turning the focus to Memphis. There is a lot that is fixable on this team, but will it be fixed fast enough to stop the losses from continuing to pile up? I’m in an “I need to see it first” mode with this team. However, I think FSU can win this game.
For one, the practice reports have been much better than last week. This is also the first time this season that FSU will be in a normal game week flow with film to prepare with. It will be their first noon game of the season and I worry that if they come out flat and let Memphis jump out to an early lead, they might fold like a cheap tent in a windstorm. The effort and fight of this team have been a major issue. I still question how badly they want it.
My keys are to win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. FSU has a decided size and talent advantage over Memphis in the trenches. While that hasn’t meant anything in the past two games, it’s about time it did. That would go a long way to helping them win this game. My other key is not giving up the freebies and taking advantage of them, too. FSU had a gimme touchdown last week on three occasions and a DJ made bad throws on all three. It’s not that the plays weren’t there, they just didn’t make them. FSU also got burnt on some easy plays by BC last week from a miscue here and a blown assignment there. Memphis is a well-coached and experienced team. They are not going to beat themselves, so FSU can not simply hand them the game with mistakes.
I said that I wasn’t going to pick FSU to win any more games until I saw something that made me feel otherwise. Michael went out on the ledge and picked Memphis to pull the upset this week. I REALLY want to do the same, but I just have a feeling that with better practice reports, a bye week to clean things up, and not being overly wowed by watching Memphis’ film, I think FSU has a good shot at winning a close game IF they play hard and cut out the dumb mistakes.
This will also be Memphis’ first road game, and we should have the Marching Chiefs unleashed this week. With that said, I’m not confident in this pick, but I’m giving FSU the benefit of the doubt one more time and going with FSU getting the win 27-24. Let’s hope FSU gets in the win column for the first time this season on Saturday. The game kicks off at noon Eastern and can be viewed on ESPN. Be sure to join us for our live instant reaction show (however the game goes) on our YouTube channel after the game. Subscribe to the channel HERE and hit the notification icon so you don’t miss it! Thanks and Go Noles!
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