FSU Baseball Midweek Preview: JU Dolphins

JU by the numbers (2024)

Coach Jarrett and the Seminoles (7-0, 0-0 ACC), coming off another weekend sweep of Penn, will take their undefeated record to Jacksonville, inside the friendly confines of John Sessions Stadium. There, they will ace the Jacksonville Dolphins (3-4, 0-0 ASUNf) on Wednesday night at 6 PM on ESPN+. 

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Pitching Matchups

Wednesday, February 26 – 6 p.m. ET

FSU: Jr. RHP Evan Chrest (1-0, 1.93 ERA, 4 K’s) vs. JU: Jr. RHP Alex Walsh (0-1. 4.26 ERA, 4 K’s)

FSU vs JU game day graphic

Jacksonville vs FSU history

The Seminoles and JU Dolphins are set to face off again for the 182nd time in a series that dates back to Tuesday, April 14, 1953, as FSU looks to add to their dominating 137-44 series advantage over JU. The Noles have taken the last four in a row, including all three in 2024, and seven of the last eight. This year will mark the fourth consecutive year Florida State will play at JU once and host the Dolphins twice this season.

The last time the Noles faced off against the Dolphins was May 7, 2024, which saw a thriller inside Dick Howser as the Noles needed eleventh-inning heroics by Lance Tripple who singled down the left-field line to score the winning run and give the Noles the 7-6 walk-off victory. So, can the Seminoles continue their early season dominance, or could a Dolphins team who are known to be a thorn in Chief Osceola’s rear end give the Noles their first loss?

Jacksonville Team Preview

The Dolphins are led by ninth-year head coach Chris Hayes, who through his first eight seasons at the helm of his alma mater, has amassed a record of 221-198 (.527). Hayes’ JU teams have made two NCAA Regionals and won a regular season ASUN Conference Championship and an ASUN Conference Tournament Championship.

The Dolphins are entering this game looking to turn their season around after starting with four consecutive losses to West Virginia and Florida. However, they recently achieved a weekend sweep of Illinois State, bringing their record to three wins and four losses. In this game, the Dolphins will face a familiar opponent in former JU Dolphin right-hander Evan Chrest, one of the team’s top pitchers last year. In his first outing for the Seminoles, Chrest dominated the USF Bulls, pitching 4.2 innings while allowing only one run on five hits and striking out four batters.

The Dolphins’ offense is currently hitting .233, with 51 hits, four home runs, 10 doubles, and 30 RBI. A major reason for this struggle is that their program was nearly gutted from last season due to player transfers through the portal. Consequently, they will face a tough challenge in their upcoming game against one of the best defenses in the country. The Noles are ranked 30th in fielding percentage (.984) this season, having committed only four errors and turned six double plays.

Despite these challenges, the Dolphins have two key players to watch. The first is senior first baseman/catcher Josh Steidl, who has played in and started all seven games this season. He leads the team in batting average (.381), home runs (3), slugging percentage (.810), and on-base percentage (.552).

The player I am most concerned about is sophomore center fielder and leadoff man Jaden Bastain. In 2024, he played in 41 games, starting 24, and posted impressive statistics of .263/.421/.465, hitting six home runs, two doubles, and driving in 25 runs. What impresses me the most is that he has not fallen into a sophomore slump this season; he currently leads the team in hits (9) and runs (9), and is perfect on the basepaths, going five for five in stolen base attempts.

FSU RHP Evan Chrest

Jacksonville Defensive Preview

Florida State’s offense ranks 23rd in batting average (.336), 21st in runs per game (9.9), and 24th in total runs scored (69). The speed of the Seminoles will create problems for the Dolphins, who are prone to mistakes on defense. So far this season, the Dolphins have committed eight errors and have a fielding percentage of .969, ranking them 144th in college baseball. The Seminoles are led by lead-off man right-fielder Gage Harrelson, who is going to cause the most havoc as he leads the Seminoles in batting average (.433), hits (13), runs (12) and third in slugging percentage (.600). Harrelson should be perfect on stolen base attempts if not for blind umpires but has five stolen bases this season out of seven attempts. 

The question is who the Dolphins’ are going to put on the mound to throw against such a good offense? Well, even though Jacksonville hasn’t announced their starter, the Seminole offense should see junior left-hander transfer pitcher Alex Walsh (0-1, 4.26ERA). Last time out Walsh might have walked away from that mid-week matchup against the Gators with the loss, but he held the Gators’ offense in check for the first four innings and only allowed five hits, striking out three while walking one in the fifteen Gators he faced.

Walsh who stands at 6’4″, throws from a three-quarter slot position. He has a decent three-pitch mix (FB, SL, CH), his fastball is in the 88–93 mph range with the slider and his change-up comes in around the mid-80s. He likes to keep the ball down in the zone which produces more ground outs. Throughout his career, Walsh has been a ground ball machine with a ground out rate of 50.6%. However, in his last game, he produced more fly balls than ground balls but still produced four ground outs. Walsh threw 78 pitches and saw his night end after he gave up a three-run homer to dangerous gator hitter Bobby Boser. 

Series Thoughts

This Jacksonville squad has the potential to knock off any team as they have a history of taking down top programs in the past. Now, can they? Yes. But will they? I think not. This will be a game the Noles take easily, as the Dolphins will not be able to match up against the Seminoles. Look for Chrest to go about 75 pitches and then coach Jarrett will turn to the bullpen to finish the game out. This is a good warm-up for the weekend series against Georgetown this Friday night at Howser. Go Noles!

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