Florida State has an opportunity to pull off a massive upset on Saturday as they welcome the fifteenth-ranked Clemson Tigers to Tallahassee. This isn’t how we expected this game to go in the preseason. We thought this could potentially be a top-10 matchup with Gameday in town. Clemson opening with a blowout loss to UGA and FSU sitting at 1-4 took the shine off this conference showdown. However, the Noles have a new face at quarterback and some hope of doing the unthinkable. FSU comes in as just a 14.5-point underdog which seems rather low. The over/under is at 47.5 points, which breaks down to around a 31-17 score prediction by the experts in Vegas… who have been wrong about FSU a lot this season.
One thing that stands out with Clemson is the strength of schedule they have faced, which makes them hard to gauge. They have appeared to hit their stride with three consecutive blowout wins, but here’s what I mean. In game one, they faced the only good team they have played this season, UGA, and got blown out 34-3.
In game two, they rebounded to beat App State 66-20, but App State is 2-2 with just one FBS win and has been blown out twice. In game three, they beat down NC State 59-35, but NC State is TERRIBLE. They were blown out by both ranked teams they played, losing by 41 to Tennessee, and were down 52-7 when Clemson pulled their starters. They also struggled against Western Carolina (FCS), LA Tech, and Northern Illinois. In game four, they beat Stanford 40-14, but Stanford outgained them (405-361) and the game was 20-7 with two minutes left in the third quarter. All their wins have been dominant, but they have come against terrible teams and were at home where they play much better.
The issue is that FSU is not a good team either, but if Brock Glenn can give them a spark and the defense plays like it did against Cal and Memphis, they would probably beat all those bad teams I just mentioned. I could see a path to FSU keeping this closer than most people expect. Unfortunately, I could also see Clemson running away with it. Hopefully, with a new quarterback and a renewed sense of energy in a night game at Doak, the Seminoles will be firing on all cylinders for the first time this season.
Clemson is typically a defensive-led team, but they have not been as dominant this season. To be fair, some of the stats and points were tacked on in garbage time against the backups. The Tigers’ scoring defense is allowing 25.8 PPG, which ranks 83rd. Surprisingly, their rushing defense ranks 105th allowing 183 YPG and Stanford ran for a whopping 236 yards.
Furthermore, Clemson has not faced a single rushing offense that ranks in the top 60 this season. FSU has been abysmal at running the ball, but this will be an area that FSU needs to focus on if they want to have success against Clemson. Hopefully, a more mobile quarterback will help as defenses must respect Brock’s ability to run, which is something DJU had no threat of doing.
Clemson’s pass defense is allowing 219 YPG, which ranks 76th, however, they have faced two top-25 passing offenses. I’m not expecting Brock to air it out for 300 yards, but he’ll need to be able to throw it enough to open the run. What worries me the most in this game is the ability to block Clemson’s front 7. While the Tigers may not be as dominant as they have been in the past, this will by-far be the best front 7 FSU has faced this season.
Clemson’s offense has been their strength so far, but again I come back to the level of competition factor. The defenses FSU has faced this season rank as follows: 18th (they only scored 3 points), 86th, 120th, and 126th. Granted they have scored 165 points in the past three games combined; it has been against bad defenses. While FSU’s defense is not great, they have played decently in the past few games until they get gassed. The offense’s ability to sustain drives and give them rest will be paramount if they want to stay in this game.
Cade Klubnik is having a rebound season after a tough 2023. He has a 66.4% completion percentage with 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He has added another 4 touchdowns on the ground. One key for FSU’s defense is to get pressure. In Klubnik’s two worst games, Stanford blitzed on 70% of dropbacks and UGA on 50%, resulting in a pressure percentage of over 30%.
In the two games where he excelled the pressure rate was around 20% because NCST blitzed only 22% of the time and App State just 11%. FSU can’t afford to allow Klubnik to sit back and pick them apart. That would also help slow down their bruiser back Phil Mafah who I expect to see a heavy dose of against FSU’s struggling rush defense.
For FSU to have success in this game, they will need to slow things down by running the ball and keeping the chains moving. That keeps Clemson’s high-powered offense off the field and allows FSU’s defense to rest. One key to that is success on early downs. FSU consistently puts itself in third and long situations where it really struggles. The Noles can’t risk putting Brock in those tough situations behind this offensive line.
FSU ranks 119th in early down EPA and 96th in 3rd and 4th down success rate, so you can see how the struggles go hand in hand. Clemson ranks 102nd in early down EPA on defense, so there is opportunity, but if they are 23rd in 3rd and 4th down success rate, so converting those third and longs will be a challenge. For FSU to sustain drives, they must stay ahead of the chains. The use of Brock’s legs in this game will be a huge factor.
My biggest concern is that FSU just can’t block that Clemson front. That could lead to an inability to run the ball and force Brock to make mistakes if he’s running for his life or having to make quicker decisions than he needs to. That could allow for things to come unraveled early, and we see the loafing make a return as it did against SMU last week. FSU will also need to limit dumb mistakes like penalties on special teams and turnovers if they want to beat a team as good as Clemson.
As I mentioned in the opening, if FSU comes out firing on all cylinders with renewed energy, there is a path to keeping it close. If Brock plays well, they run the ball and maybe hit a few shot plays… who knows? I think FSU will rise to the occasion early and keep it close. Unfortunately, I think Clemson is by far the best team FSU has faced this year, and will eventually run away with it. As much as it pains me to say this, I think Clemson wins something like 45-17. Hopefully, FSU just wears this one for what it is, refocuses during next week’s bye, and then comes out swinging against Duke. I would love to see the Noles pull the upset, but being realistic, I just want to see progress and how the young guys play when given the opportunity. I hate that is where we are with this team, but it is what it is. Maybe, just maybe, they will play the brand of FSU football we are looking for and defend Doak in a massive upset! Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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