Florida State finally gets a game it should win comfortably. After a disappointing 1–2 start, back-to-back losses and a defense that has looked completely overwhelmed for long stretches, the Seminoles return to a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium to face Central Arkansas at 3 p.m. Saturday on ACC Network.
Most of the conversation surrounding FSU right now has little to do with the Bears. Fans want to know whether Mike Norvell or defensive coordinator Tony White will be fired, who the next athletic director will be, and what the future of the program looks like.
Those conversations are justified. But Florida State still has nine games to play, and this is its final tune-up before a stretch that includes Virginia, road games against Louisville and Miami, and Clemson after the bye week. That makes Saturday less of a traditional opponent preview and more of a diagnostic test.
Florida State cannot prove it is fixed by beating an FCS opponent. It can, however, show whether it is capable of fixing the mistakes that will get it beaten during the next month.
Who Is Central Arkansas?
Central Arkansas enters the game 2–2, and its first month has been wildly inconsistent.
The Bears opened with an impressive 36–24 road win over No. 22 UT Martin, then lost 42–14 at home to West Florida. They responded by running for 407 yards in a 59–20 victory over Division II Central Oklahoma before failing to score a touchdown in last week’s 27–9 loss at Southeast Missouri State.
Central Arkansas finished 3–9 last season and is 3–18 against FBS opponents since moving to Division I in 2006. FSU is favored by more than 40 points. This is not a game the Seminoles should have to sweat out in the fourth quarter.
There is at least one interesting connection. Central Arkansas is Norvell’s alma mater, and Bears head coach Nathan Brown was his college teammate. Brown played quarterback while Norvell played receiver, and Brown’s first touchdown pass at UCA went to Norvell in 2005.
That makes for a good pregame storyline. Once the ball is kicked off, FSU needs to treat this like business.
The Threat Central Arkansas Does Present
The Bears’ offense runs through sophomore quarterback Donovyn Omolo. Through four games, he has completed 64 percent of his passes for 671 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. He is also UCA’s leading rusher with 360 net yards at 7.7 yards per attempt.
Omolo threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another 118 yards in the win over UT Martin. He has produced at least 85 net rushing yards in three of UCA’s four games, so Florida State will have to remain disciplined with its edges and quarterback-run responsibilities.
That matters beyond this game. Virginia’s Beau Pribula and Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz can also hurt defenses with their legs. If FSU cannot maintain contain and execute sound run fits against Central Arkansas, the next two weeks could become even more painful.
The passing game is far less intimidating. UCA averages only 168.8 passing yards per game, and Omolo went 12-of-27 for 98 yards with two interceptions against Southeast Missouri State. Tyrell Pollard is the primary vertical threat, averaging 20 yards per reception, while Dakarai Anderson and Ty Durham work more of the underneath passing game.
Central Arkansas’ season rushing average also requires context. The Bears average 238.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry, but 407 of their 953 rushing yards came against Central Oklahoma. Outside of that game, they have averaged 182 rushing yards.
This is a capable FCS running game with a legitimately dangerous quarterback. It is not an offense FSU’s starting defense should struggle to control. But, given this is Tony White’s defense that has allowed over 550 yards and 8 yards per play the past two weeks, all bets are off. That said, the talent disparity between those two teams and this team is worlds apart.
Start With Looking Like a Coordinated Defense
The first thing I need to see from Florida State is simple: look like a well-coached, coordinated defense.
FSU showed flashes of that at Alabama. The Seminoles were disruptive early, built a 21–6 lead and looked capable of making the Crimson Tide uncomfortable. Then Alabama scored on nine consecutive possessions and finished with 50 points and 570 yards.
The problems were not limited to being out-talented or worn down by Alabama’s depth. Florida State has repeatedly suffered from poor communication, busted coverages, bad run fits, and defenders being out of position. Those are the issues that must be corrected Saturday.
I want to see defenders lined up correctly before the snap. I want to see receivers passed off cleanly in coverage. I want to see the edge set in the run game, the quarterback accounted for and the secondary playing connected football without giving away easy completions.
FSU’s starting defense should overwhelm this opponent. If Central Arkansas scores late against the third-team defense, so be it. The starters, however, should not allow another quarterback to play pitch-and-catch down the field.
New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and completed 60.5 percent of its passes. SMU threw for 430 yards and completed 72.2 percent. Alabama added 320 yards at a 76.7-percent completion rate.
That is 750 passing yards allowed over the past two games, with both quarterbacks completing more than 70 percent of their attempts.
Central Arkansas could not reach 100 passing yards last week. Florida State cannot turn Omolo into another Heisman contender.
Pressure Has to Become Production
FSU’s pressure plan has produced a terrible return on investment. The Seminoles blitzed on 48.7 percent of SMU’s dropbacks and 59.4 percent against Alabama. Across 71 combined dropbacks, they produced one sack. One… Even against New Mexico State, FSU blitzed on 47.8 percent of the Aggies’ dropbacks and generated pressure only 26.1 percent of the time.
Florida State has been forced to manufacture pressure because its defensive front has not consistently won individual matchups. When those blitzes fail to get home, Tony White’s soft coverage behind them leaves quarterbacks with easy completions.
That cannot happen against an FCS offensive line. UCA has allowed eight sacks this season. FSU should control the line of scrimmage, collapse the pocket without opening escape lanes and finish plays when it reaches Omolo. Four or five sacks should be a reasonable expectation.
Nobody needs to throw a parade if FSU’s defensive line dominates Central Arkansas. But if it cannot create disruption against this opponent, there is little reason to believe it will happen against anyone else on the schedule. It’s time for the Desir Twins to get off the missing poster and onto the stat sheet.
Build on the Alabama Passing Game, Without the Interceptions
For all the frustration surrounding the program, Florida State’s offense gave it something to build on at Alabama.
Ashton Daniels completed 17 of 29 passes for 377 yards and two touchdowns. FSU attacked vertically, created explosive plays and scored 36 points, the most Alabama has allowed in a nonconference home game since 2000. Daniels also threw three interceptions.
That performance captured the entire Daniels experience: enough arm talent and athleticism to create big plays, but enough inconsistency and poor decision-making to give those plays back.
Against Central Arkansas, I want to see the same aggression with cleaner execution. Push the football downfield, but make faster reads. Get the ball out on time. Improve the accuracy and stop forcing throws when the checkdown, tight end or running lane is available.
Daniels has been below a 60-percent completion rate in each of the past two games with only one credited drop. He has also been sacked three times in both games. The offensive line still owns part of that, but Daniels sometimes takes three business days to throw the football. He has to help his protection by processing faster.
I do not need 400 yards and four touchdowns if they come with two more interceptions. Give me something closer to 250 yards, three touchdowns, a completion rate above 60 percent and no turnovers. Then get him out of the game. I also want to see a heavy dose of Malachi Marshall and even Kevin Sperry.
Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy Need an Encore
The Alabama game finally showed what FSU’s passing attack can look like when its two most dangerous receivers are involved.
Duce Robinson caught six passes for 135 yards and a touchdown. Micahi Danzy added three catches for 89 yards, including a 56-yard explosive.
They should create enormous matchup problems Saturday. Robinson should be nearly uncoverable against an FCS secondary, and Central Arkansas should not have anyone capable of consistently running with Danzy.
The goal is not merely to pad their statistics. FSU needs to prove it can feature them consistently, create easy touches and maintain an aggressive passing identity instead of waiting until it falls behind to open the offense.
This would also be a good opportunity to involve younger receivers such as Jason Lopez, whose strong fall camp has yet to translate into meaningful game opportunities.
Run the Ball Consistently, and Find the Next Back
Ousmane Kromah has established himself as the bell cow of the offense. He has 311 rushing yards at 5.9 yards per carry and has scored in all three games.
FSU should let him set the tone early, but it does not need to run him into the ground against Central Arkansas. With Samuel Singleton expected to miss extended time, this game should be used to establish the rest of the rotation. That starts with Tre Wisner.
FSU invested heavily to bring Wisner into the program, but he has barely been used through three games. The justification for adding another veteran back was always injury protection. Unfortunately, that moment has arrived.
Wisner needs real carries with the starting offensive line, not just cleanup work in the final minutes. FSU should evaluate his vision, burst, receiving ability, pass protection and ball security. The Seminoles should also find opportunities for Gemari Sands and freshman Amari Thomas.
The larger offensive line test is consistency. Central Arkansas has held every opponent below 160 rushing yards, although that production came against FCS and Division II competition. FSU should still be able to impose its physical advantage.
I want to see successful early-down runs, movement in short yardage and drives that stay on schedule, not a mediocre rushing performance disguised by two long gains. FSU should be able to move the ball at will and control the line of scrimmage.
Create Meaningful Reps for the Backups
Florida State has not taken a snap with a backup quarterback this season. That needs to change Saturday.
Malachi Marshall should receive meaningful second-half work, and Kevin Sperry should get an opportunity as well. Meaningful work does not mean entering with four minutes remaining and handing the ball off six consecutive times. Let them run the offense, throw on normal downs and manage complete drives.
That is important for two reasons. FSU needs to know what it has if Daniels gets injured or his turnover problems become untenable. It also needs to begin developing the players who could matter beyond this season.
The same principle applies throughout the roster. Alabama’s depth eventually wore FSU down. Saturday should give younger defensive linemen, linebackers, defensive backs and offensive linemen a chance to earn trust before the schedule becomes more demanding.
Those repetitions must be earned by the starters putting the game away early.
Special Teams Should Create an Advantage
Central Arkansas has already allowed two blocked punts, a punt-return touchdown and a 99-yard kickoff-return touchdown. Its opponents are averaging nearly 20 yards per punt return.
FSU’s special teams have generally been solid, but they have not produced many game-changing plays. This is an opponent against which the Seminoles should be able to create a block, a significant return or at least a substantial field-position advantage.
Just as importantly, they cannot hand UCA cheap points through a coverage or protection failure.
FSU Owes Its Fans a Stress-Free Saturday
There is far more risk than reward in a game like this. If Florida State wins by 50, nobody will care by Sunday. If it sleepwalks through another sloppy performance, every concern surrounding this staff will grow louder.
The Seminoles have not earned the right to overlook anyone. Their only victory was an unimpressive 34–17 result against New Mexico State. They were handed four takeaways against SMU and still lost. They led Alabama 21–6 and then allowed the Crimson Tide to score on nine consecutive possessions.
Meanwhile, FSU fans have continued to show up. Saturday’s game is sold out for Family Weekend despite the 1–2 start and the anger surrounding the program.
That fan base deserves one Saturday without unnecessary stress.
FSU should be ahead by at least three touchdowns at halftime, allow the starters one series after the break and spend most of the second half developing its depth. Something in the neighborhood of 52–10 would represent an acceptable afternoon.
It would not prove Florida State is back. It would not erase the first three games or change the larger conversation about the program’s direction.
But it would show that the Seminoles can play clean football, correct their assignments, dominate an overmatched opponent and use their final tune-up wisely.
This game is not really about Central Arkansas. It is about whether Florida State can fix the busts, turnovers and missed assignments before the schedule stops offering second chances.
And if the Seminoles somehow lose this one, we will not need to keep asking when somebody is getting fired. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!