Florida State is set to face off with the North Carolina Tar Heels this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. inside Doak Campbell Stadium. The Heels come in as a 2.5-point favorite over the struggling Seminoles. Despite the Tar Heels rolling into Tallahassee with a 4-4 record and a 1-3 mark in conference play, they look to build on last week’s momentum after snapping a four-game losing streak with a dominant 41-14 victory over Virginia.
North Carolina started the season strong, with three straight wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, and NC Central. However, in the process, they lost starting quarterback Max Johnson for the season. The Heels searched for Johnson’s replacement before settling on sixth-year senior Jacolby Criswell. The Tar Heels’ four-game skid began with an eye-opening 70-50 loss to James Madison who scored 53 points in the first half! It then continued by blowing a 20-point lead against rival Duke, followed by close losses to Pitt, and Georgia Tech.
Now in year six of his tenure in Chapel Hill, veteran coach Mack Brown has led UNC to five straight bowls and only needs two more wins to secure a bowl bid this season. It’s been an up-and-down tenure for Brown with hot starts and questionable losses despite having one of the more talented rosters in the ACC. Against the school he lettered at, FSU, Brown holds a 0-11 record including losing their last trip to Doak in 2020 as a top 5 team against a terrible FSU squad. Maybe Mack is just truly Nole-blooded? However, FSU has allowed just about every streak to be snapped in the past few years, so there is a good chance Mack will get his first win this time. The Seminoles hold a 17-3-1 record all-time against UNC.
North Carolina’s offensive is fueled by 6-foot-2, 220-pound running back Omarion Hampton, who put up over 1,700 all-purpose yards last season and is already over 1,100 in 2024. Hampton has single-handedly rushed for more yards and touchdowns than FSU as a team. Hampton has rushed for over 100 yards in seven of eight games this season.
Jacolby Criswell has thrown for 1,660 yards and has a solid 10-touchdown to-only 3-interception ratio. He ranks 49th in QBR at 66.9 and 52nd in PFF pass grade in the Power 4. Criswell threw for a whopping 477 yards and 3 touchdowns against James Madison, but he hasn’t cracked the 300-yard mark since. Criswell also hasn’t thrown an interception in the past 3 games, either.
UNC’s offensive line has given up 98 pressures since Criswell took over, but his mobility helps avoid pressure as his pressure-to-sack percentage is low at 9.2%. Criswell only has two games with a completion percentage over 60% and the UNC receivers have a 62.3% reception percentage with 18 drops, so it is not the most efficient passing offense. However, when combined with Hampton at running back, it’s effective as we have come to expect from a UNC offense. The Tar Heels rank in the top 30 in the nation in yards and points per game at 442.4 YPG and 33.9 PPG.
UNC has historically struggled on defense during Mack Brown’s tenure and 2024 has been no different. The Heels have allowed an average greater than 27 PPG in four consecutive seasons and are giving up 28.4 PPG (96th) in 2024. UNC has allowed over 20 points and given up over 500 yards in 3 of their last 5 games. They allowed almost 400 yards to a Duke offense that FSU held to just 181.
If there was ever a game where FSU should finally break the 20-point barrier since week zero, it’s this one. However, they only managed 14 points (including a last-second garbage-time score) last week against Miami, who allowed over 33 PPG in their last three games.
FSU has run the ball better in the past two games putting up an average of 148 YPG, compared to just 58 in the first six. UNC is allowing 141 YPG on the ground (64th), so it would be nice to see FSU hit that mark again this week to help keep the chains moving and take pressure off the young QBs. The Heels did hold UVA to only 7 rushing yards last week but gave up 371 to Georgia Tech the week before.
UNC has struggled to stop the pass this season, allowing 245 YPG, leaving them with the 106th-ranked pass defense. However, they rank in the Top 20 in completion percentage allowed at 55.2%. FSU has been plagued by poor receiver play and dropped passes this season. If FSU hopes to keep pace with UNC’s offense, they must make plays at receiver and start catching the ball.
If the Noles can drive into the red zone, UNC has allowed scores on 90.3% of trips (108th). They have allowed 31 trips to the red zone this season (107th), this will be one of the worst defenses FSU faces all season, but will it finally translate to points?
FSU needs a win in the worst way. The youth movement has ensued, and the young players have played well, but it still hasn’t produced any wins. Outside of FCS Charleston Southern, this is the most winnable game remaining on the schedule. Unfortunately, FSU finds ways to lose games week after week, so it’s hard to pick them to win anything.
If there were ever a time that FSU’s offense should score 20 points it would be against this UNC defense. While that is certainly not guaranteed with this putrid offense, I don’t see a path to winning if they don’t score at least 20. FSU’s defense isn’t bad, they just get put in terrible positions repeatedly. FSU will be at home in front of what I suspect to be a fairly empty Doak Campbell Stadium. With a loss, this season would produce the Seminoles’ worst conference record in program history.
I believe FSU can win this game with a strong defensive performance and if the offense shows any signs of life. What concerns me is that FSU has scored over 20 points once this entire season (21 in game one). On the other hand, UNC has only scored less than 20 once this season (19 in game one). I want to believe there is something to Mack Brown never beating FSU, but that didn’t mean anything against Duke. For that reason, I think the Noles drop a close one and Mack will get his first win in what I believe might be his final season in Chapel Hill, but hopefully, I’m wrong and the Noles prevail cause we all need it! Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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