It’s rivalry week and that means two things for FSU. First, this dreadful season is finally almost over. Second, the gators are coming to town and no matter the record, this is always a game to have circled on the calendar. Florida State finally got back in the win column last week with its 41-7 win over Charleston Southern. Although it was against a bad opponent, hopefully, having something positive will carry over into this week. The Noles will look to pull the upset over a Gator team that brings a lot of momentum into this game following wins over LSU and Ole Miss. UF is a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5, which indicates a Vegas score prediction of around 31-15.
I want to spend a little time dissecting Florida’s record. I will certainly give credit where it is due for beating LSU and Ole Miss. However, 6-5 isn’t anything to write home about. Sure, it’s much better than 2-9, but let’s break it down further. Of UF’s 6 wins this season, 4 of them came against teams with a losing record.
They beat Samford, a 4-7 FCS team. Mississippi State, who are 2-9 and have zero Power 4 wins. UCF, who are 4-7 and only has 2 Power 4 wins. Kentucky, who is 4-7 with only 1 Power 4 win. Then, they got a good win over LSU, but the Tigers are certainly having a down year at 7-4 with just one quality win. Ole Miss is by far the feather in their cap, but even then, Ole Miss beat UGA, South Carolina, and a bunch of nobodies. Still, knocking off a top 10 team was huge for them.
It is fair to say their losses have come against good teams, but in 2 of the 5 losses they were not competitive (Miami and Texas), and against Texas A&M, they never led and were down 33-7 late in the third quarter. My point with this is that UF fans are riding high right now, but that record is very deceiving. For example, let’s compare FSU to UF on some key points.
Record vs. Currently Ranked Opponents (CFP)
FSU: 0-4
UF: 1-5
Number of current FBS bowl teams faced
FSU: 10
UF: 7
Wins against teams with a winning record
FSU: 1
UF: 2
Combined Opponent Records
FSU: 81-29
UF: 71-39
Interestingly enough, FSU has not faced a single FBS opponent this season with a losing record. Florida fans like to poke fun at us for not scoring over 21 points until last week against CSU, however, UF did not score more than 21 points against a team with a winning record until 2 weeks ago against LSU. To be fair, UF has shown improvement throughout the season whereas FSU has not, but I can’t help but wonder what the Noles’ record would be if they had played as many terrible teams as UF has. For what it’s worth, close doesn’t count, so I’m not giving FSU credit, but they have lost 3 games by one score to solid teams (GT 7-4, Memphis 9-2, and Duke 8-3). What if those had been terrible teams like the ones on UF’s schedule?
Another stat that I find interesting is that Florida is just 3-9 in games outside of the Swamp under Billy Napier. Additionally, during Napier’s tenure, UF has only won three consecutive games once when they beat McNeese State, Tennessee, and Charlotte in 2023. Lastly, since Napier took over, the Gators are just 2-9 in rivalry games and have never beaten a rival outside of the Swamp. FSU currently has a two-game winning streak over its rival, but that certainly feels in jeopardy despite all that I noted.
The Gator offense is led by highly touted true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, who took over for Graham Mertz after he suffered a season-ending injury. He has thrown for 1,477 yards on 135 attempts with a completion percentage of 58.5%. Lagway has thrown for 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, however, 3 of those touchdowns came against an FCS team. DJ is a dynamic player who had led Florida to a 4-1 record in games that he started, however, he has yet to start a true road game.
He is mobile enough to move the pocket and hurt you with his legs when needed. DJ also excels at throwing the deep ball, which Mertz lacked. Even as a true freshman, he leads all FBS quarterbacks with a 97.2 grade on passes over 20 yards. FSU needs to turn up the pressure on the young signal caller and put the game on the decision-making and arm of a true freshman.
His two leading pass catchers have put up solid numbers this season. 6-foot-1 senior, Elijah Badger has caught 35 passes for 778 yards and 4 touchdowns. Meanwhile, 6-foot senior Chimere Dike has tallied 624 yards on 33 receptions with 2 touchdowns. In total, Florida has 6 players with over 100 yards receiving.
Florida’s rushing attack has relied on three main backs this season. Freshman Jadan Baugh leads with 522 yards and 7 touchdowns on 108 attempts (4.83 YPC). Senior Montrell Johnson Jr. has added 494 yards and 5 touchdowns on 90 carries (5.49 YPC). Meanwhile, junior running back Ja’Kobi Jackson had tallied 401 yards and 6 touchdowns on 73 carries (5.49 YPC).
Florida has allowed just 16 sacks this season (38th). They rank 70th in scoring offense at 27.6 PPG. Their passing offense averages 227 yards per game (67th) with a ground game that averages 149 YPG (79th). The Gators have converted 37.9% of their third down attempts (90th) and scored on 85.4% of trips to the red zone (66th).
Florida has scored 40+ points in three games this season (FCS Samford, Kentucky, and Mississippi State). In all the other games, they average 20.75 points per game. If FSU’s defense plays hard, I think they can hold them to the 30-ish point range. However, for FSU to get a win with their offensive struggles, they will have to play lights out and keep them to the low 20s.
Florida’s defense has improved not only from last season but throughout this season as well. They started the season by giving up 41 points against Miami and also allowed 49 points against Texas 3 weeks ago. However, they held two good offenses (LSU and Ole Miss) under 20 points the past two weeks. The biggest concern I have coming into this game is that Florida’s defensive line has come alive the past two games racking up 11 sacks.
Senior defensive back Trikweze Bridges leads the team in tackles with 64. Junior Edge Tyreak Sapp leads the defense in sacks (6) and TFLs (11). Florida has 11 interceptions this year led by sophomore DB Bryce Thorton who has 3.
Florida’s defense ranks 87th against the run allowing 161 YPG, 107th against the pass allowing 245 YPG, and 74th in scoring defense at 25.5 PPG. While those aren’t the most imposing numbers, they do have the number 12 red zone defense. UF did allow almost 500 yards against Mississippi State and 25 first downs against LSU. Even with Florida State scoring 41 points against Charleston Southern last week, their season average is only 15.8 PPG, which is not likely to be enough to win. The Noles will need to find a way to score at least 20 points against a solid, but not great defense.
When I boil this preview down, it comes down to a few simple things in this game. Will FSU show up and play hard? Can FSU block the gators’ front? Will FSU be able to score 20+ points? I do think after having something positive last week and being a rivalry game, FSU will show up and play hard. By doing that, if the defense has a good game, they can give FSU a chance. What worries me is that FSU just won’t be able to block this gator front because we saw them struggle to push around one of the worst teams in the FCS last week. Because of that, I’m not confident the answer to number 3 is yes. I just don’t see FSU winning this game without scoring at least 24-27 points.
I hope with it being the last game of the season and FSU having nothing to lose, Mike Norvell pulls out all the stops. FSU needs to get creative to help its chances. Kick an onside, go for it on fourth a few times, and throw in a few trick plays. What do you have to lose? It’s been a crazy season full of upsets, so anything is possible.
With the stats I named in the beginning, I don’t think Florida is a great team, but they are playing well right now. I do know that FSU is not a great team this year and beating a 1-win FCS team last week didn’t change that. I always hate to pick FSU to lose, especially to a hated rival, but I think they drop this one to the Gators 31-13. However, I can see a scenario where FSU makes it a game and you never know what can happen when you get into the fourth quarter and the game is close.
At least when it is over the pain of the disastrous 2024 season will finally be over and we can get started on what will be a crucial offseason for the future of this program. I will be in Doak this weekend, so if you see me around give me a “Go Noles.” Stay tuned to Plant The Spear for all your FSU coverage. Thanks, and Go Noles!
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