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Florida State will hit the road for its final away game of the season against the tenth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This was a game that everyone had circled at the beginning of the season as a potential top-10 matchup between two storied programs. Unfortunately, only one of them has held up its end of the deal as this has become a game that most FSU fans are anything but excited about. Notre Dame is a 26.5-point favorite with a 96.5%-win percentage according to the ESPN matchup predictor. Most of the computer model scores I’ve seen expect this game to be around 34-7, which feels a little too close.
Things were already bad for the Seminoles, but last week may have been the low point of a dreadful season. FSU was non-competitive against an average UNC team, which leaves little hope in a game like this. FSU’s offense scored 14 points against a Miami defense that was allowing over 30 PPG against FBS teams and followed that up with an 11-point performance against a UNC defense that gave up 70 points to James Madison. Unfortunately for FSU, Notre Dame enters this game with a top 5 scoring defense. The Irish are also top 20 in scoring offense and top 10 in turnover margin.
ND opened the season with an impressive win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field but then followed it up with an embarrassing loss at home to Northern Illinois. However, since that loss, ND has gone 6-0 and beat two ranked teams. They are averaging 43 points per game, have not scored less than 28 points, and have an average win margin of 31 points per game. Despite the early setback, the Irish are now firing on all cylinders, unlike FSU who has regressed throughout the season.
ND is a run-heavy team led by dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred in from Duke. The Irish have the 13th-ranked rushing offense with an average of 216.5 YPG. This is bad news for a defense that allowed an average of 260 YPG on the ground the past 2 weeks. ND isn’t the greatest passing offense averaging under 200 yards per game (105th), however, they probably don’t need to throw much to win this game.
Outside of Louisville, who scored 24 points, Notre Dame has not allowed more than 14 points this season. They just held Navy to 14 points in the last game. Navy scored 56 points against Memphis, a defense that held FSU to 12. The Irish are top 15 in third-down defense, red zone defense, and limiting explosive plays. It would not surprise me if FSU got shut out this week unless Fitzgerald can nail a long FG or two.
I hate to be negative or cut this preview short, but there is not much to say about the matchup other than FSU needs a miracle to win, but hey, Northern Illinois pulled the upset, so anything is possible! It’s just hard to see a path for an unmotivated FSU team to go on the road and knock off a top-10 team in a place they haven’t won since 2003. This one will probably get ugly, but it would be nice if they just played hard for four quarters and kept it respectable. I never imagined we would be here coming off 23-4 over the past two seasons, but it is the harsh truth in 2024.
FSU will enter a bye week after this game and then face a 1-8 FCS team, so hopefully, we can get win number 2 on the season. The Noles and Irish will kick off at 7:30 PM ET on NBC. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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