It’s rivalry week as FSU prepares to head South to face off against a top-10 Miami team. The Nole will need a miracle in Miami to pull off the massive upset, however, anything can happen in a rivalry game. The last time the Noles played the Canes in Hard Rock Stadium they laid a 42-point beatdown on Miami, who will certainly be looking to return the favor. Florida State is coming off another disappointing loss dropping their first-ever game to Duke. Miami comes into this game with an unblemished 7-0 record but has needed the ACC referees’ help to survive a close call three weeks in a row.
After last season, this is not how anyone expected this game to be set up with Miami coming in as a three-touchdown favorite over the Noles. Regardless of the records, this is still a big game for two teams and fan bases that don’t like each other and it’s all going to play out on Saturday at 7 pm in primetime on ESPN.
When looking at this Miami team, their 7-0 record must be divided into two parts. In the first four games, Miami beat up on bad teams and won by an average of 42 points per game. They outgained opponents by a whopping average of 372 yards per game. However, once they started playing conference opponents things have been much closer. In the past three games against Virginia Tech, Cal, and Louisville, Miami has won by an average of just 4 points per game and outgained them by 137 yards per game.
Miami trailed VT in the fourth quarter and the Hokies had a last-second Hail Mary touchdown call overturned to give Miami the win. The Canes traveled out West to face Cal the week after they lost to FSU and found themselves down 35-10 in the third quarter. To be fair, Miami made an incredible comeback, but the game should have ended on an obvious targeting call… Once again, they were bailed out by the ACC refs. Miami then won a shootout against Louisville, which featured another controversial overturned call in Miami’s favor. Miami won the games, but it showed that average teams can hang with them. Unfortunately, FSU is not even average this season, but anything is possible if they can make it a game in the fourth quarter. Just know that FSU will have to beat Miami and the ACC on Saturday night.
Florida State’s offense is unquestionably the worst in the country. FSU is the ONLY team in FBS that has not scored more than 21 points this season. They certainly aren’t going to beat Miami with another 16 points or less performance. However, the good news for FSU is that Miami’s defense has been suspect in the past three games allowing an average of 36.7 PPG. Even Cal, who only scored 9 points against FSU, put up 38 points. Miami doesn’t have a bad rush defense, but VT put up over 200 yards on the ground. Where their defense struggles most is defending the pass. They allowed 303 passing yards vs. USF, 297 vs. Cal, and 342 vs. Louisville.
FSU finally rushed for over 100 yards vs. Duke, but the Noles have been heavily reliant on the pass (63.2%) because of the struggles in the run game. This seems like a mismatch that could benefit FSU, however, that would require them to catch the ball. FSU currently leads the country in dropped passes and has the lowest catch percentage in the ACC at 59.3%. FSU has missed so many opportunities by dropping passes this season. If they hope to have any chance of pulling the upset, they can’t afford to make those mistakes again this week.
Miami is 12th in third-down defense allowing conversions on only 29.9% of attempts. They are tied for 60th in red zone defense from a scoring percentage standpoint, however, they are tied for 19th in total touchdowns allowed at just 9. If FSU can find a way to create explosive plays the opportunity might be there as the Canes’ defense is 70th in explosive plays (20+ yards) allowed. Miami’s defense is by no means bad, but they are not elite. FSU “should” break the 20-point barrier, but as we’ve seen in almost every game, they always find a way to self-destruct. The opportunity will be there, but I’m not confident they will do it.
The Miami defense might give us hope that FSU can score points and make this a game. Unfortunately, the Miami offense is what makes me feel this game could get out of hand. To be fair, FSU’s defense is not bad despite being put in tough situations repeatedly by this terrible offense. However, they will have quite the challenge this week as Miami’s offense is one of the best in the country. Against Power 4 competition, the Canes rank as the number 4 scoring offense at 42.5 PPG. They have put up over 500 yards in every game (FSU has not put up 300 yards in a game this season). They are number 1 in third-down offense and number 1 in explosive plays, and Cam Ward is the number 1 graded QB in the country per PFF.
I must admit that Cam Ward is really good and he’s having a Heisman-type season, which is exactly what we said had to happen for Miami to be good this year. He has over 2,500 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Ward can make ridiculous throws with odd arm angles and extend plays with his legs. He might not be Lamar Jackson running the ball, but he can pick up yards in open space. However, he often keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling to look for a big play through the air. Ward will be the best quarterback FSU will face this season, so the secondary will be in for a challenge. It is worth mentioning that Ward is the heart of this offense. They play him deep into games they probably shouldn’t because he is all they have. So far this season, Ward has played 92.7% of snaps at QB. If something were to cause him to miss time, Miami might be in trouble.
FSU needs to create pressure, but at the same time, it’s better to keep Ward in the pocket. Miami has a good, but not great, offensive line. They have allowed 54 pressures and 10 sacks in the past three games. Miami’s pass catchers are sure-handed with a 72.9% catch rate, and they have size, too. On the ground, Miami has a solid rush attack led by Mark Fletcher Jr. and Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez. Both backs are over 220 pounds, so FSU will have to strap it up and tackle well in this game. As much as I hate to admit it, this offense is explosive and electric. As good as FSU’s defense has played, this will be a tough challenge.
FSU will have to play flawlessly to pull off a massive upset on Saturday, but the good news is that all the pressure is on Miami. I believe that FSU will be up for this game as it is a rivalry, and FSU has a handful of players from South Florida. What they can’t do is make mistakes and make it easy for the Hurricanes to run away with it. FSU has been plagued by turnovers this season. They are currently -10 in turnover margin (127th) and rank 133rd in points off turnovers differential at -62. Protecting the ball is my number one key in this game. FSU’s offense scored more touchdowns for Duke than they did for FSU last week…
I would also like to see them get creative on offense this week. Run some trick plays. Try wildcat. You’re 1-6, what do you have to lose? Lastly, play with passion. I know it can be hard to be motivated when you are 1-6 and headed to face a top-10 team, but this is FSU vs. Miami. I would love to see the Noles come out swinging and play like they have nothing to lose. This is what rivalry games are all about. Big hits, big plays, and some trash-talking along the way.
I will say that I see a path to FSU making this game closer than the experts think. If the defense plays well, the offense finally manages to put up points on a defense that likes to give up points, they protect the ball, and maybe special teams can create some magic again this week you never know. 2024 has been a crazy year for upsets. 0-6 Kennesaw State just upset 5-0 Liberty showing that anything is possible! Unfortunately, in the end, I think the Miami offense will be too much for FSU to overcome. The Canes haven’t been held under 38 points this season and FSU hasn’t scored more than 21. That is not a recipe for an upset. I HATE picking Miami, but I have to. I think the Canes snap FSU’s three-game winning streak something like 41-20. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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