Menu
Florida State’s first game of the season takes them to Dublin, Ireland to face off against Georgia Tech. All eyes will be on the international matchup as it kicks off the 2024 college football season. Florida State will be looking to make a strong opening statement with its new-look team, but some have the Noles on upset alert. With the new 12-team playoff format and automatic qualifier bids, conference games have never been more important, so FSU needs to start its season on the right foot against an ACC foe.
The Yellow Jackets have struggled since moving away from the triple-option in 2018. Former HC Geoff Collins never mustered more than 3 wins in a season before he was fired. However, current HC Brent Key took over mid-season in 2022 and guided the Jackets to a 4-4 record, which earned him the job full-time.
In 2023, Key led GT to a 7-6 record and their first bowl game in 5 years. It was an up-and-down first season, though. GT lost a 39-34 barn burner against the eventual ACC runner-up Louisville to open the season. A few weeks later, they suffered a head-scratching loss to a 1-3 Bowling Green before taking down Miami, who forgot to kneel to end the game. They followed that with a two-score loss to Boston College at home coming off a bye week. The Jackets did go on to beat a ranked UNC team and played a (Brock Bowers-less) UGA tough before finishing the season with a 30-17 win over UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Looking at 2024, GT has the potential to be a sneaky good team returning 83% of last year’s production from an offense that averaged 31.1 PPG. Redshirt junior QB Haynes King is back for his second season as the Jackets starter and is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback. He threw for 2,834 yards last season and added another 737 on the ground. He accounted for 37 total touchdowns (27 pass / 10 rush) and earned third-team All-ACC honors.
Inconsistency and turnovers appear to have been his biggest issue last year with 16 interceptions and 4 fumbles. As for the inconsistency, King averaged 294 yards and 3 touchdowns per game through the first 5 games. That average dropped to 170 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in the final 8 games.
As a passer, King is not bad by any means. He’s not scared to stretch the field which GT likes to do in the passing game. Last season, King was tied for 12th in the Power 5 for the highest percentage of deep passes (20+ yards). However, his deep ball completion percentage was only 31.4% (53rd in P5). He also had the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play percentage on deep throws and threw the most interceptions on deep passes in all of Power 5, so there will be opportunities for the FSU DBs to make plays. When teams apply pressure and King gets flushed from the pocket, he will make off-base throws that probably make former Seminole great, and current GT co-offensive coordinator Chris Weinke hold his breath.
While he was worse under pressure, as most quarterbacks are, King threw 10 interceptions from a clean pocket and 11 when not being blitzed. If FSU can put pressure on King without devoting too many extra resources, allowing them to sit back in coverage, that could create turnover opportunities.
The difficulty with defending King is you must respect his running ability. GT runs a lot of read-option and RPO, and he is not shy about calling his number. He only had 54 fewer carries than the starting running back in 2023. Last season, 66% of his rushing yards were on designed runs compared to 34% on scrambles. Containing King will be key because if he does get loose, he’s got wheels. King averaged 6.14 yards per carry last season and had 27 runs of 10+ yards, more than Trey Benson had at FSU in 2023 on fewer carries. From a yardage perspective, King was Top 5 among quarterbacks last season.
At receiver, King will get 3 of his top 5 targets back from a year ago including Eric Singleton Jr. who had a breakout season. Singleton led GT in receptions (48), yards (714), and touchdowns (6) as a true freshman. He’s joined by Malik Rutherford who caught 46 passes for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns. One thing that stood out about Rutherford, who primarily lines up in the slot, is his efficiency. He had a 66.7% reception rate, a 2.1% drop rate, and a 66.7% contested catch rate in 2023, some of the best all-around numbers on the team.
Former Bama transfer Christian Leary also returns after putting up 309 yards and 2 touchdowns. Something interesting to note is that none of the top three returning receivers are over 6 feet tall, so FSU will also have a size advantage against this group. Speaking of size, it was recently announced that GT will be without former Georgia transfer TE Brett Seither, who sustained a season-ending knee injury. Seither was second on the team in receiving touchdowns last season with 4. The 6-foot-5 tight end will certainly be a loss in the red zone for the Jackets.
In the backfield, Jamal Haynes returns after leading the Jackets in rushing with 1,061 yards (6.1 YPA) and 7 touchdowns. Last season among P5 backs, Haynes was in the top 25 in the number of missed tackles forced, runs of 10+ yards, and breakaway run percentage (designed runs over 15 yards). Haynes King isn’t Tech’s only threat in the run game that can do damage. Their third-leading back from 2023, Trey Cooley, also returns after putting up 274 yards (4.2 YPA) and 5 touchdowns.
Last season, GT had a top-15 rushing attack averaging 204 yards per game. A big reason for that was their offensive line. Brent Key is a former offensive lineman himself, so it’s no surprise they have put together a good group. In 2024, they return 4 of 5 starters including an All-ACC center and right tackle. GT led the ACC in rushing, was top 10 in yards per carry, and only allowed 15 sacks behind this group last year. The starting unit has 128 combined starts, the 13th most in college football, so they are experienced and coming off a good season. One of Florida State’s strengths is its defensive line, so the battle in the trenches will be one to watch.
Georgia Tech’s offense is very active with lots of “eye candy.” They like to use pre-snap motion and misdirection to confuse defenses. They don’t run a lot of play-action (24.2%) and operate primarily from the shotgun. Oddly enough, it’s very similar to the offense FSU runs. GT is a run-first team but uses the ground game to open up deep shots which is a staple of our offense. Something I noticed when looking at the stat sheet is that GT’s top two receivers struggled vs. man coverage last season, which we know FSU likes to run primarily and has the secondary to do it well. The defense must stay disciplined in this game and try to contain King to reign in the GT offense. This offense was tied for the second-highest yards per play of the season against Georgia’s defense last year, so they held their own against good competition. In the film I watched during the first half of that game, they gave UGA all they wanted on defense. I don’t doubt the Jackets will score some points, but I like our chances if FSU can hold them under 30.
Flipping to the defense, this is where GT really struggled last year. The Jackets had the 97th-ranked scoring defense allowing 29.5 PPG. Their run defense was one of the worst in the country giving up an average of 221 yards per game. To make matters worse they only return 49% of their production. However, they will be under the direction of new DC Tyler Santucci, who served as the DC under Mike Elko at Duke and was co-DC at Texas A&M in 2022.
On the defensive line, they return 2 starters and get a DE back from injury, but they must replace some key pieces including sack leader Kyle Kennard (DE) and D’Quan Douse who started 10 games at defensive tackle. GT was able to add three Power 4 transfers to provide depth for this unit. In the pressure department, GT produced just 21 sacks last season and only returned 5 of those in 2024. They also allowed over 5 YPC on the ground. The new defense should be geared towards stopping the run and they will need a better year in the trenches to do so.
At linebacker, GT is losing two starters including their nickel. However, RS-So Kyle Efford is back after leading the team in tackles. He’ll be joined by Trenilyas Tatum, who started 6 games in 2023. They did add two Power 4 transfers from Louisville and UGA to provide depth after losing some of their backups, too.
GT’s pass defense held up better than their rush defense last year finishing the season ranked 53rd after giving up an average of 216 YPG. Unfortunately for the Jackets, they have a lot to replace. First-team All-ACC safety Jaylon King departed along with CBs Keenan Johnson and Myles Simms who started 17 games combined. They do have some experience to build around with Clayton Powell-Lee and LaMiles Brooks who both played over 650 snaps last season. Ahmari Harvey returns at corner after starting 5 games last year. He’ll be joined by sixth-year Tennessee transfer Warren Burrell. Rodney Shelly Jr. is projected to step into the nickel role with competition from Rhode Island transfer Syeed Gibbs, a freshman All-American in 2023.
When Santucci was at Duke, they primarily ran a 4-2-5 with some 4-3 mixed in. Mike Elko was a defensive coach, so he probably had control of the defense. However, Santucci should carry that scheme over to GT and what they did at Duke was quite impressive after fielding a top-25 defense without a lot of top-end talent. While I expect GT to see some improvement under its new DC, I’m not sure they have the personnel to make a massive difference yet. I just don’t see them losing half their production from a bad defense and making some miraculous jump in one offseason.
With that said, FSU’s strength on offense this year should be the run game which was a glaring weakness for the Jackets last season. I expect FSU to pound the rock until GT proves they can stop it, and when they eventually load the box to do so, hit them deep with our speedy wide receivers and DJ’s big arm. GT was 108th in explosive plays over 20 yards allowed last season. As we mentioned in our offensive preview episode, Norvell’s offenses are at their best when they create a lot of explosive plays. GT was also 108th in third-down defense and 92nd in the red zone. Run the ball, move the chains, and set up explosive plays. Then, aim for 7 instead of 3 because FSU will have to outpace that GT offense.
As I mentioned in the opening, GT has the potential to be a good team in 2024 led by that offense. Oddly enough, despite the 11-10 overall record, Brent Key is 4-0 vs ranked ACC teams at GT. This won’t be a game that FSU can just pencil in as a win. It’s game one, so familiarity for GT on offense is my biggest concern because FSU will be breaking in a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball.
The burning question is whether GT can make any strides on defense while having to replace over half of its production in a new system. GT’s Top 5 SOS schedule in 2024 doesn’t do them any favors. They face almost every Top ACC team besides Clemson and get Notre Dame and Georgia in non-conference. Even with improvement, the 5.5-win total projection against that schedule might be lofty for the Yellow Jackets, but that doesn’t mean they can’t cause chaos along the way. At the time of writing FSU is a 10.5-point favorite in Dublin, which is about where I have this one. However, that number has dropped from 13.5. The over/under is 55.5 points, which I think is a little low.
In my keys to victory above, I think the number one thing is to establish the run and control the line of scrimmage. We heard and talked A LOT about this offensive line and running backs, it’s time to find out what they got. I’d like to see FSU hit around the 180-200-yard mark on the ground. The second key is to force King to beat you with his arm. He’s a good passer, but he’s a dangerous runner and mobile quarterbacks have given us fits in the past. FSU projects to have one of the best secondaries in the country and King threw 16 interceptions last year. Make King beat your strength with his weakness. Lastly, win the turnover battle. This is almost as much about playing keep-away from their strength as it is anything else. Running the ball should slow the game down, help keep the defense fresh, and take pressure off DJU. We don’t need to give that offense any extra at-bats.
If FSU does that and comes out clicking, I could see them overwhelming GT. However, if they take a while to settle in and get all the new pieces working in sync, I could see it being a little closer. I’m taking FSU to beat the Jackets and score their first international win to start the season 1-0. Give me FSU 38, Georgia Tech 27. Be sure to tune into our live post-game reaction show on our YouTube channel after the game. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
Share this Article with other Nole fans!
