Florida State will travel to Durham, North Carolina for a Friday night primetime matchup against the Duke Blue Devils. It feels like we are living in opposite land this season as Duke comes into this game at 5-1 and the favorite over 1-5 FSU. Both teams enter this game on the heels of a loss and are coming off a bye week. Duke dropped their first game of the season to Georgia Tech (24-14), and FSU lost to Clemson but has excitement around Brock Glenn at quarterback. The Noles will look to maintain their perfect 22-0 record against the Blue Devils, but if there was ever a year that streak felt in jeopardy, it would be this one.
While I do feel this is a winnable game for the Noles, this is not the same Duke team from years past. They won 9 games in 2022, and 8 in 2023 under former head coach Mike Elko. Former Miami head coach and Penn State DC Manny Diaz took over for Elko and is off to a solid 5-1 start in year one. Elko and Diaz are defensive-minded guys, so it is no surprise that Duke’s defense is their strength. Unfortunately, FSU has had one of the worst offenses in college football this season. They will need to find a way to score some points to bring home a win because their season average of 14.8 points per game isn’t likely to get the job done. FSU will need to get off to a hot start in the cold weather as the forecast for Durham is predicting it to be in the 40s at game time.
When Duke landed Texas transfer Maalik Murphy at quarterback, it was quite a splash in recruiting. The former 5-star hasn’t played badly but appears to need some additional development as he didn’t see the field much at Texas. He’s thrown for 1,431 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season with a 60.1% completion percentage. Murphy ranks 94th in QBR (46.6) and 68th in pass grade, per PFF (min. 50 dropbacks). He’s got a big arm, and Duke likes to take shots downfield with it. Murphy ranks 3rd in the ACC in pass attempts of 10-19 yards and is tied for 5th in attempts over 20 yards. However, he is last in the ACC in completion percentage in both categories.
Over the past two games when Duke finally played some decent teams (UNC & GT), the struggles have started to show up for the young gunslinger. His completion percentage dropped to 42.9% against UNC and for the first time this season, he failed to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. Against, GT he did throw for two touchdowns, but his completion percentage was only 58.1% and he had his worst PFF grade of the season at 51. Murphy is far from a dual-threat quarterback with -15 rushing yards on the season, and that’s sack-adjusted. He only has one game with multiple rushing attempts this season. When I was on a Duke podcast this week to preview the game, the host said Murphy’s refusal to use his legs has been a point of frustration among Duke fans.
This is a huge component of why I think FSU can win this game. FSU may struggle against mobile quarterbacks, but it’s a different story against traditional drop-back passers. Murphy hasn’t faced more than 8 pressures in a game this season but has a relatively high pressure-to-sack percentage of 19.4% (24% against FBS teams). Against non-mobile quarterbacks, FSU generated 16 pressures and 3 sacks vs. Memphis, 19 pressures and 7 sacks vs. Cal, and 11 pressures and 3 sacks against Clemson (Klubnik is somewhat mobile). FSU has a real opportunity to create havoc in the backfield and force Murphy to make mistakes or take sacks. Duke has a good offensive line and ranks top 10 in pass block efficiency, but keep in mind the competition they have faced.
Getting pressure on Murphy would be huge for the defense because when in a clean pocket (83.4% of dropbacks), he has a 65.7% completion percentage with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. When he’s under pressure, which hasn’t been often at only 16.6% of dropbacks, those numbers take a massive drop to 21.4% with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Duke is a run-heavy team with a quarterback who struggles under pressure. FSU would be wise to load the box to stop the run, bring pressure, and put the game on Murphy’s arm. Duke’s receivers also have the second-lowest catch rate in the ACC at 61.8%.
When adjusted for only FBS opponents, Duke has faced just one top-50 defense this season, and that was Georgia Tech at number 50. The Jackets held them to 14 points, their lowest of the season. Interestingly enough, FSU’s defense is ranked 53rd allowing only .2 points per game more than GT. Duke’s offense is not great. They rank 84th in scoring at 26.3 points per game. They have the 60th-ranked passing offense and 111th-ranked rushing offense despite facing a weak schedule. They are also 129th in third down offense. FSU hasn’t scored over 20 points since week zero, but if the defense shows up in this game, it feels like FSU could win with around 20-24 points.
As previously mentioned, Duke’s strength is its defense. This is a well-coached solid defense that doesn’t make many mistakes. They like to bring pressure, confuse offenses, and play aggressively. Duke ranks 24th in scoring defense allowing 17.5 points per game, but they have given up at least 20 in 4 of 6 games. Brock Glenn will have his work cut out for him as the Blue Devils have the 14th-ranked pass defense allowing just 158 yards per game. That does worry me because FSU’s inability to run the ball makes them reliant on passing. UNC is the only team to throw for over 170 yards against them this season.
Speaking of FSU’s inability to run the ball. FSU faced top 50 rushing defenses in 5 of the first 6 games but only has 2 in the final 6 games. Duke currently ranks 79th allowing 152 yards per game on the ground, which makes them the worst run defense FSU will have faced this season. While I don’t expect FSU to have an explosion of rushing yards, if they hit triple digits, it would help this offense get things going. After all, the only game FSU has rushed for at least 100 yards this season also happens to be the only game they won.
Duke has allowed teams to score at an 86.7% clip in the red zone this season. Surprisingly, FSU is scoring on 83% of red zone trips, although they have only made 12 trips there, which ranks 128th in the country. Duke’s third-down offense may be terrible, but its third-down defense is one of the best allowing conversions on just 29.3% of attempts.
FSU will need the offensive line to protect its young quarterback and open some holes in the run game for this offense to have a chance. Duke ranks 2nd in TFLs (58) and is tied for 9th in sacks (18). It is worth noting that 14 of their 18 sacks were in 2 games against an FCS team and MTSU. They only got single-digit pressures against Northwestern, UConn, and GT. They did create a whopping 23 pressures against UNC, but the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 21 pressures in their last 3 games. Duke only managed to get 4 total pressures on Haynes King in their last game against Georgia Tech.
While Duke’s defense is good, they have not faced the toughest slate of offenses this season. Unfortunately, FSU is the worst of them all by far at 131st. FSU left a lot of yards and potential points on the field against Clemson. If they can clean up the mistakes and convert those wasted opportunities into points, they should be able to break the 20-point barrier for the first time since week zero.
Although Duke looks like the better team coming into this game at 5-1 vs. 1-5, and it is in Durham, I think this is a winnable game for FSU. My keys are to create pressure on defense for all the reasons I previously pointed out. That should aid them in stopping the run as well. FSU’s secondary has seemed to regress some this season, but it is still pretty good. If I were Adam Fuller, I would make Maalik Murphy uncomfortable in the pocket and force him to throw the ball to win.
On offense, FSU needs to run the ball and cut down on the dropped passes. Brock Glenn looked good against Clemson and has now had two weeks to prepare as the starter. If FSU can limit the dropped passes and run for at least 100 yards, I think that will allow them to finally break the 20-point barrier and be in a position to win this game.
I’d also like to see them use Glenn’s legs more this week. Being this is a game FSU can win with around 20-ish points; it would be a good idea to take the points this week. You aren’t going to beat teams like SMU, Clemson, or Miami with a bunch of FGs, but that might be possible against Duke. It’s time to let Ryan Fitzgerald loose!
FSU has had its best games against non-mobile quarterbacks and Murphy has been as non-mobile as they come. So far this season, Duke has scored 26 points against a terrible FCS team, 26 against Northwestern in double-overtime, 26 against UConn, 45 against a bad MTSU team, 21 against UNC, and 14 against GT. This is not an explosive offense and FSU’s defense is not bad when they want to be. If they can hold Duke to 21 points or less I like their chances to win.
One major factor that makes me lean toward FSU in this game is the level of competition each team has faced. In my opinion, Duke’s 5-1 record is somewhat fools’ gold, but 5-1 is 5-1 and the Blue Devils have found ways to win games where FSU has not. While FSU is 1-5, they have faced a much tougher slate of teams and would not likely be 1-5 vs. Duke’s schedule just like Duke would unlikely be 5-1 vs. FSU’s.
Duke’s combined opponent record is just 17-21. They have only faced three Power 4 teams and lost to the only one with a winning record. FSU’s opponents on the other hand have a combined record of 27-10, and FSU has faced five Power 4 teams (2 ranked) and a 5-1 G5 team. While FSU isn’t good this year, they are probably the second-best team that Duke has faced so far this season.
If the Noles eliminate the mistakes, Brock Glenn takes another step forward, and the supporting cast around him does not let him down again, I actually like FSU to get the win. Now, that’s a BIG if… But if they do that, I’ll take FSU to extend the streak to 23-0 and knock off Duke in Durham. This game may come down to who has the ball last. Give me FSU 23-21! I will be at the game, so if you see me say hello! Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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