The Florida State baseball season came to a close in the Tallahassee Regional, and the way it ended stings more than it should for a team that, on paper, had plenty going for it. Back-to-back losses to St. John’s, a team that entered the weekend with a 1-8 record against Power Four competition, is the kind of result that doesn’t just disappoint, it demands a serious conversation. The sky isn’t falling in Tallahassee, but the floor needs some serious work.
Let’s give this team its due before we dig into the hard stuff. Link Jarrett’s squad won 40 games and took eight ACC series in a year that dealt them a brutal hand from the jump. The draft raided this roster last spring, and then Myles Bailey, the best hitter on the team, maybe the best hitter in the ACC, went down for the season before it ever really got going. Jace Estes, who was also off to a hot start, was lost for the season in Arlington. That’s a lot of adversity to absorb, and winning 40 games through all of that isn’t nothing. Credit where it’s due.
But credit only goes so far when you fail when it matters most, the postseason. An early exit in the ACC tournament, just one game in, followed by falling in a home regional to a mid-major team that beat one Power Four opponent all season, isn’t good.
The Myles Bailey Question
I do wonder how this season would have looked if Bailey hadn’t gotten injured? We’ll never know, but the answer is probably pretty different. He still led the team in home runs despite missing more than half the schedule. That should tell you everything you need to know about what his presence means to this offense. When he was healthy, he masked some structural problems in the lineup. When he went down, those problems had nowhere to hide.
That’s the truth of it. One player, no matter how good, shouldn’t be able to cover for an entire offensive construction. The fact that he did, and that the offense still crumbled without him, points to a depth issue that goes beyond bad luck. Bailey was the only hitter that opposing pitchers truly feared in this lineup. This offseason, that has to be addressed at its root.
The Numbers Tell the Story
We’ve been watching one stat all season, and it told us exactly where this was headed. The inability to drive in runners when it mattered was a persistent problem throughout the year, and in the postseason, it became a full-blown crisis. In five NCAA Tournament games, FSU went 8-for-52 with runners in scoring position. That’s a 15% clip. In a sport where .250 with runners on is considered ordinary, posting those numbers in elimination baseball is catastrophic.
And it wasn’t just the clutch hitting. Home run production dropped 25% from last season, which is significant on its own. Obviously, that number would have been different with Bailey in the picture all season, but it again shows how reliant this lineup was on a single player being the power plant for the entire lineup. The team batting average dropped below .300 (.282) for the first time since 2023.
Baserunning mistakes increased, and fielding errors were up 59%, something that is uncharacteristic of a Link Jarrett-coached team. Losing two of the best middle infielders in program history was going to open some room for error, but a 59% increase is a lot.
The starting pitching was decent enough at times, and the bullpen flashed some bright moments, but the inconsistency that has plagued the relief corps since Jarrett took over in 2023 remained a recurring issue throughout.
Put it all together, and you have a team that was built thin, got hit hard by circumstance, and didn’t have enough margin for error to survive it.
What Needs to Happen This Offseason
Make no mistake, I’m not calling for Link Jarrett’s job. Winning 40 games with those roster losses and that injury is a real accomplishment. But acknowledging that doesn’t mean we ignore what must change. FSU fans know what this program has been and what it can be again. The standard is the standard, regardless of circumstances.
The portal has to be the primary focus this offseason. This team needs veterans. It needs leaders, guys who’ve played meaningful baseball in May and know how to perform when the lights get brighter. It needs power. Badly. With a 25% drop in home runs and the program’s top power threat potentially heading to the draft, you cannot walk into 2026 hoping the power develops organically. You must go out and find it.
The bullpen depth picture is equally important. Year after year, inconsistency back there has cost this team. A true, reliable stable of arms, not just a few bright spots mixed in with a lot of uncertainty, is non-negotiable if FSU wants to make a genuine postseason run next spring.
The good news is the foundation exists. There’s a core of talented young players who can build something real, and if the portal work is done right, this roster can look meaningfully different by the time February rolls around. FSU has the name, the facilities, and the history to attract players.
The question is whether the staff identifies the right targets to fill in the gaps. Hopefully, they can retain the core nucleus of talent that performed well this year and don’t lose too much to the portal and the draft. FSU has already seen three names announce their intent to hit the portal.
The 2025 season had real excuses behind it. The 2026 season won’t have the same ones available. Some of this may have sounded harsh, and again, I don’t aim to pile on because this team had some real bright spots this season. However, this program has set such a high standard for itself that anything less is a disappointment.
I look forward to seeing how the process plays out this offseason. FSU’s draft history under Link Jarrett speaks for itself. They know how to identify, acquire, and develop talent. One disappointing finish doesn’t diminish that, but the expectations aren’t going anywhere either. Stay tuned to your source for fan-focused FSU coverage here at Plant The Spear. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!