FSU football is only a few days from kicking off its 2026 season. That means it is time to put the finishing touches on our preseason content. This is going to be a lengthy one, but I wanted to put it out for the diehards, who don’t mind spending 30-45 minutes reading a full 12-team preview. Let’s dive in, and I’ll include my final thoughts and some added context at the end. I pre-apologize for some shorthand used, but it should be easy to figure out.
New Mexico State
New Mexico State was 4–8 last year and is projected as a bottom-15 FBS team, but they’ve got some decent skill talent. Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden is currently the favorite to start after completing 68% of his passes last year, but he only threw 17 TDs to 13 INTs. They lost 3 of their top 4 WRs but return TK King, who led CUSA in receiving yards per game.
Delaware State transfer RB James Jones put up 958 yards, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry at the FCS level. The problem is the trenches. They were 136th in rushing offense, averaging only 77 YPG (2.6 YPC) and allowed 34 sacks. They lost 4 starting offensive linemen and signed seven to try to fix it.
Their defense was the stronger of the two sides last year, but still not great. The trenches are an issue there as well. They only recorded 19 sacks as a team and lost their top two sack producers, who accounted for 10 of the 19. They also lost their top 2 in INTs and top tackler at Safety. They do have experienced linebackers, but if Florida State controls the line of scrimmage and doesn’t give NMSU turnovers, this shouldn’t be close.
Stat to know: New Mexico State scored just 26 first-quarter points in 12 games last season. That’s only 2.2 points per first quarter. Start fast, bury them quick.
Verdict: Noles are a 30.5-point favorite and roll. 99% here.
SMU
SMU is Florida State’s first real measuring-stick game of 2026. They’re picked second in the ACC, and they’re around the top 25 in the preseason models. The Mustangs have gone 14-2 in the ACC since joining. Rhett Lashlee has built a winning program in Dallas. They do replace both Coordinators with internal promotions, so the scheme won’t look any different, and Lashlee calls plays on offense anyway.
The biggest reason to respect them is Kevin Jennings. He threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns last year; he’s mobile, he’s experienced, and he plays behind an offensive line that allowed only 19 sacks and is led by two returning All-ACC players. Jennings did throw 13 interceptions (second-most in the ACC) and 11 in 2024 (third-most). But he was also top 4 in the ACC in yards and yards per attempt the past 2 years.
They lost their top two running backs, but added Kendrick Raphael from Cal, who ran for 943 yards and 13 touchdowns. He did have the most carries by any back in the ACC, though, so there’s some context around that number. His 4.06 YPC average ranked 29th in the ACC.
The biggest question mark on offense starts at receiver after losing four of their top six pass catchers, who combined for 65% of their receiving yards last year. They do return Yamir Knight, who was their No. 3 WR with over 600 yards, and added Yannick Smith from ECU, who put up 583 in 11 games, as well as Randy Pittman at TE.
Defensively, they were solid against the run, allowing only 5 rushing TDs all season and 3.2 YPC, but ranked 135th in pass defense.
They lost some enormous pieces. Safeties Ahmaad Moses and Isaiah Nwokobia combined for 184 tackles and seven picks. Defensive end Isaiah Smith had 18 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. All three are gone. Their four biggest sack producers from last year’s roster, who combined for 24 of the team’s 34 sacks, are gone. All four starters from the defense are gone, but they backfilled with some transfers up front.
The question for SMU is whether all of those new pieces around an established core can immediately recreate what last year’s team did.
For FSU, the matchup revolves around the trenches. Can the Noles get pressure on Jennings without having to bring extra people? And on offense, can FSU take advantage of a rebuilt SMU defensive front before those new pieces settle in?
If the answer to both is yes, there’s a very real path for FSU to win. If Jennings is comfortable and SMU’s tempo gets rolling, this becomes a dangerous matchup.
Stat to know: SMU was 3-3 in true road games. Road wins were Missouri State (7-6 | First year coming from FCS | won by 18 as a 27.5-point favorite), Clemson (7-6 with a backup QB), and Boston College (2-10). Road losses were to TCU, Wake (who FSU beat by 38), and Cal (7-6). They also haven’t won their opening game vs a P4 opponent since 2021 (they were G5 for 3 of those)
Verdict: FSU gets the tune-up; SMU does not and has a lot of new pieces to settle in. However, the coach, QB, and OL are things that travel. Jennings has been limited in camp with a hand injury but is expected to be 100% by game time. FSU in Doak, at night, on Labor Day with a tune-up. Maybe some Mike Norvell early-season magic as we’ve seen in the past? It won’t be easy, and I could see it going either way. If it were week 7 in Dallas, I’d probably take SMU, but it’s not, so I like FSU in this one. I’ll give them a 55% chance to win.
Alabama
Alabama is interesting because they are going to be an inexperienced team on offense. Despite going 11–4 last year, the offense had real problems. They averaged only 104 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry (second worst in the SEC), and over their final six games against FBS teams they averaged just 18.7 points per game.
Now they lose Ty Simpson, essentially the entire starting offensive line, their leading rusher, and three of their top five receiving-yardage producers. ESPN has them at only 35% returning offensive production, which ranks 119th nationally.
Keelon Russell was just named the starting quarterback over the older, but also inexperienced Austin Mack, who followed DeBoer from Washington. Russell was one of the best quarterback recruits in America and gives them the higher athletic ceiling. The second-year player went 11/15 for 143 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against lesser opponents last year. He has a year of learning the system but only has 37 snaps of game experience. However, he will at least have two games before FSU (East Carolina and a road trip to Kentucky), so this isn’t going to be another situation where FSU gets a quarterback making his first career start like Ty Simpson did last year.
The offensive line is the biggest question mark. Alabama lost all five of the starters it listed from last season, and the only returning lineman with significant starting experience is Michael Carroll, who made six starts as a freshman. The starting center is an FCS Transfer, which is crazy for a program like Bama that stacks talent. They did bring in a new o-line coach to try and fix it. They still have Ryan Williams at receiver. They still have talent. But have they fixed the run game enough to help protect a new quarterback and rebuilt receiver corps?
The problem for FSU is the other side of the ball. Alabama could be really good defensively. They allowed only 19 points and 297 yards per game last year. Yhonzae Pierre returns after 14.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks, and the secondary is loaded. Bray Hubbard had four interceptions and 79 tackles, Zabien Brown had two picks that he returned for touchdowns, Dijon Lee had two picks as a freshman, and Keon Sabb is back too. If FSU gets into obvious passing situations all afternoon, that secondary and pass rush can make the game really tough.
However, FSU ran for 230 yards and four touchdowns against Alabama, and those were both season highs allowed by the Tide’s defense. So, Florida State physically beat them worse on the ground than anybody Alabama played all season.
They lost all three starters on the defensive line and three starting linebackers. Caleb Woodson, a VT transfer linebacker, adds production. They added size up front, but only USC transfer Devan Tompkins has real production. There is not a lack of talent, though.
I actually like the way we match up as a team that wants to run the ball if you can stay away from Pierre. Make that rebuilt front and linebacker room prove itself. FSU only needed 140 pass yards to beat Bama last year. Ashton Daniels ran for 108 yards against them last year at Auburn and threw for 259 despite 7 dropped passes. So, he was lighting them up. Same coordinator. Same secondary.
Stats to know: Alabama is 7-7 in road/neutral games under DeBoer, but 13-1 at home. Only home loss was by 2 points to Oklahoma last year. Every win vs a P4 team at home in 2025 was by double digits.
Alabama was 9–0 last year when leading at halftime and 0–4 when trailing. Florida State had them down 17–7 at halftime last year. To pull the upset, FSU can’t get into a hole early. Make the new quarterback play under pressure, challenge the rebuilt offensive line, establish enough run game to stay out of third-and-long, and get this thing to the fourth quarter.
FSU will also have 12 days to prepare after SMU while Alabama plays at Kentucky the previous Saturday. The truth is, they’re more talented, they’re at home, and their defense could be one of the best FSU sees, and they are hungry for revenge. But this isn’t Saban’s Bama with no weaknesses. After all, they lost two of their final three games last year by a combined score of 66-10.
Verdict: This one isn’t going to be easy. FSU will be looking for its first road win in 2 years against a team that only has 1 home loss in two years. If FSU beats SMU and has an extra week to prepare, I feel good about them keeping it respectable, but I just don’t feel confident enough to pick FSU to go into Bryant-Denny and get their first road win in two years. I give FSU a 25% chance because of the offensive questions (which may not be questions by then) and the way we match up. The spread is around 15.5 Bama.
Central Arkansas
Mike Norvell faces his alma mater for the first time, and Central Arkansas head coach Nathan Brown was actually his former teammate at UCA. That’s probably more interesting than the football matchup itself.
UCA went 3–9 last season and allowed 35.2 PPG. They’re picked fifth in the eight-team conference at the FCS level. They lose RB Landen Chambers, who ran for 1,273 yards and 10 TDs, and leading receiver Malachi Henry, who had 889 yards and 10 TDs. They do have a QB who transferred in from the P4 level and a pair of 500-yard receivers from last year. The defense returns more experience than the offense, including three preseason All-Conference players.
Verdict: This isn’t really about whether Florida State should win. It should. Comfortably. This is about what you want to see from FSU after the Alabama trip:
Does FSU show up focused?
Does the OL/DL physically dominate an FCS front?
Can the run game average 6+ per carry?
Can the defense suffocate a rebuilt QB/RB situation?
Can FSU get the starters out early and develop its depth?
If Central Arkansas is hanging around in the third quarter, we got problems.
The good thing is this game provides “hangover protection from whatever happens in Tuscaloosa.
FSU: 99.9% win confidence
Virginia
Virginia is a really interesting revenge game because they’re coming off the best season in program history at 11–3, but they’re also one of the clearer regression candidates in the ACC. They went 3–1 in overtime and 5–3 in one-score games, so a lot had to break right to get to 11 wins, and that can be hard to repeat. But I don’t want to dismiss them as lucky either. They went 4–1 in true road games, allowed only 19.6 points per game, had the best ACC regular-season record, won a bowl game over an SEC team, and Tony Elliott won ACC Coach of the Year. UVA had 11 wins in the previous three seasons combined. The biggest question is clearly whether that was a fluke or whether they can sustain that level of success.
Offensively, they lose almost everything from last year at the skill positions. Chandler Morris is gone, J’Mari Taylor ran for more than 1,000 yards and is gone, Harrison Waylee is gone, and only one receiver who caught at least 16 passes last season is still on the roster. They only return 11.4% of their yardage from last year, which ranks 122nd nationally and third worst in the ACC.
But here is why Virginia still is a team you can’t overlook. Virginia returns the most experienced offensive line not only in the ACC, but the entire country, led by McKale Boley and Noah Josey, who are preseason All-ACC selections.
At quarterback, Beau Pribula steps in after going 7–3 as Missouri’s starter last season. He completed 67% of his passes and ran for six touchdowns. But he also threw nine interceptions in only 10 games. That’s where FSU has to create opportunities. And he’s mobile, which matters because Chandler Morris ran for three touchdowns against Florida State last year.
The run game could still be really good. Jekail Middlebrook had more than 1,200 all-purpose yards at Middle Tennessee and enters camp first in the rotation. Solomon Beebe had more than 1,200 all-purpose yards at UAB and is a dangerous returner. Peyton Lewis scored seven rushing touchdowns at Tennessee, and Xavier Brown averaged 6.7 yards per carry against FSU last year. So I wouldn’t assume Virginia suddenly can’t run the football, especially behind that offensive line.
The defense is what really gets my attention. They allowed only 309 yards and 19.6 points per game, opponents averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, and ESPN has Virginia ninth nationally in defensive returning production. Linebacker Kam Robinson is the star if he’s healthy (64 tackles in only eight games with two pick-sixes), but he’s coming back from an ACL tear and still wasn’t cleared for full contact by the start of fall camp.
But there are things I really like for FSU in the rematch. Florida State actually outgained Virginia last year, putting up 514 yards, including 256 on the ground, and scored 38 points. They’ve shown that they can move the ball and score points on that defense in their own backyard.
Now the game moves to Doak, where Virginia is 1–9 all time, and because their opener against NC State was moved from Brazil to Charlottesville, Florida State will actually be their first true road game of the season. With a new quarterback and almost entirely new receiver rotation.
If FSU is 2–2 when this game arrives, I consider it a “can’t-afford-to-lose” game. Virginia is good enough to beat you, but this is exactly the kind of conference game Florida State has to win at home if the program is going to take a real step forward.
Verdict: For me, it comes down to: Can FSU force Virginia to win on the road through its rebuilt pass attack instead of allowing the veteran OL, deep RB room, and Pribula’s legs to dictate the game? If FSU stops the run and turns this into Pribula dropping back 35+ times, I like FSU considerably more. They’ll also need to establish the run as they did in the last meeting and play a much cleaner game this time around.
I’m not overlooking UVA by any means, and we’ll see just how “for real” they are vs “lightning in a bottle” against NC State and West Virginia prior to the FSU game. But I like a revenge-minded FSU at home coming off a win. Give me FSU at 60%.
Louisville
Louisville is No. 24 in the preseason AP poll, picked third in the ACC, and Jeff Brohm has won at least nine games in all three seasons there. But they were only 4–4 in ACC play last year. They started 7–1, then dropped three straight conference games before recovering against Kentucky and Toledo. That said, Isaac Brown was out for all 3 losses.
The biggest player to know in this matchup is Isaac Brown, and I’m not sure it’s close. He averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season and 7.7 for his career. Louisville went 1–3 in the final four regular-season games while Brown was hurt, then he came back in the bowl and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns on only 10 carries. He is the heart of this offense. But their backup Keyjuan Brown averaged 7.3 yards per carry himself, so this is one of the best running back rooms FSU is going to see.
The reason I think FSU has a path to an upset is that Louisville is replacing its quarterback and four of five starters on the offensive line. Lincoln Kienholz comes over from Ohio State with a lot of athletic ability but only 36 career college pass attempts. So defensively, the entire game plan for FSU should be stopping the run and making Kienholz play quarterback on down-and-distance situations.
Louisville is also rebuilding its receiving room around Keinholz. Chris Bell had 917 yards, Caullin Lacy had 635, and both are gone. But Brohm did a good job replenishing it. Tre Richardson had 806 yards and seven touchdowns at Vanderbilt, former Seminole Lawayne McCoy had 396 yards and three touchdowns at FSU, and tight end Brody Foley had 528 yards and seven scores at Tulsa. So Kienholz isn’t exactly being thrown out there without weapons.
The part of this matchup I don’t like for FSU is Louisville’s run defense. They allowed only 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry last year. If Florida State wants to be a run-heavy team, that’s a direct strength-on-strength matchup. But Louisville did lose multiple pieces from that front and changed defensive coordinators, so I’m not automatically giving the 2026 defense credit for last year’s numbers. Make them prove they can still stop it.
That said, Bowling Green ran for 190, VT ran for 164, SMU ran for 178, and Toledo ran for 169…
Clev Lubin is the defensive player to know. He had 13.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks and is a preseason All-ACC and All-American player. That’s Jared Verse-level production. You absolutely do not want this game becoming third-and-10 all night with Lubin rushing the passer.
The scheduling angle isn’t quite as bad as it initially sounds. Yes, FSU has to play Virginia Saturday and then go to Louisville Friday. But Louisville is also on six days’ rest, and they’re playing at NC State the previous Saturday. So they have to travel to Raleigh, come back, and immediately enter a short week themselves. They have home-field advantage, but not a rest advantage.
And FSU has done this before. The last Friday-night trip to Louisville was 2022, when Jordan Travis got hurt, and Tate Rodemaker came off the bench to lead a 35–31 comeback. Then, the one time Norvell faced Jeff Brohm at Louisville, Florida State beat them in the ACC Championship with third-string QB Brock Glenn making his first career start and throwing for only 55 yards. So, there is some precedent for FSU winning this matchup through defense and physicality.
One thing to note: bowls can be tough to judge, but Louisville beat an 8-win Toledo team 27-22, while Toledo was playing with a backup quarterback and an interim head coach.
Verdict: Louisville opens vs Ole Miss and gets SMU and NC State before FSU, so we’re going to know exactly who they are. If they are 3-0 in those matchups, I’ll be far less confident. If they have lost a couple of those, including your one common opponent, SMU, and you beat SMU, I suddenly feel a lot more confident. If you can get it to the fourth quarter, they’ve got a chance. This is not a mountain FSU can’t climb (no pun intended), but I’m not confident they do. I’m giving FSU a 40% chance right now that could jump to a 49% coin flip based on the early season results.
Miami
Miami is the clear preseason favorite in the ACC; they’re No. 7 in the country and a national title contender. They went 13–3 last year and reached the national championship game, and the skill talent they’ve assembled for 2026 is ridiculous. Darian Mensah led the ACC with 3,973 passing yards and 34 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions at Duke. Mark Fletcher ran for 1,192 yards. Malachi Toney had 109 catches for 1,211 yards as a true freshman. Then Miami went and added Mensah’s favorite Duke receiver, Cooper Barkate, who had another 1,106 yards. That means they have the ACC’s returning leader in passing, rushing, and top-2 in receiving.
Where Miami has questions is in the trenches. They’re replacing three offensive linemen who were drafted, and two first-round defensive ends. Miami allowed only 20 sacks last year, and its defense produced 50, so those were major strengths. You don’t automatically transfer those numbers to a new group. As we know firsthand, replacing Verse and Fiske has proven to be a tough task.
They aren’t rebuilding the defensive front from scratch, though. Ahmad Moten had nine tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, and they added Damon Wilson from Missouri after he had nine sacks in the SEC. Linebacker Mohamed Toure is back after leading the team with 84 tackles, and the secondary returns Bryce Fitzgerald, who picked off six passes as a true freshman, plus Xavier Lucas and OJ Frederique. I expect Miami’s defense to still be very good.
This will also be year two under DC Corey Heatherman, who flipped that defense in year one. The biggest question is whether it’s as dominant without two game-wrecking edge rushers. The offensive line might be plugging in new pieces, but they are talented, just less experienced, so the drop-off could also be minimal, especially by this point in the season.
Last year’s FSU-Miami game was 28–22, but Miami led 28–3 after three quarters. Florida State scored 19 in the fourth to make it respectable. The frustrating part is FSU actually held Mark Fletcher to only 40 rushing yards. What killed them were explosives: Malachi Toney had 44- and 40-yard touchdown catches. So to me, this year’s defensive goal starts there. Don’t give Miami free touchdowns. Make them drive the field.
The game also has one of the worst scheduling setups on FSU’s entire slate. Miami plays at Clemson, gets an open date, then hosts Florida State. FSU hosts Virginia, plays at Louisville on Friday, then has to go right back on the road to Miami. So Miami gets 14 days between games and Florida State gets eight while traveling twice. Miami gets home field, a bye, and two weeks of rivalry preparation. Not ideal.
If FSU is going to pull this upset, I think it has to happen through the trenches and game control. Attack the rebuilt Miami offensive line, pressure Mensah without blitzing, make Fletcher inefficient, don’t give Toney explosive plays, and offensively run the football against a front replacing Bain and Mesidor. Shorten the game. This cannot become a 14-possession shootout. Florida State needs this to be a one-score game in the fourth quarter, where rivalry pressure and one turnover can change everything, and we’ve seen Miami slip up before.
Verdict: Miami should win the game. They have more proven talent, spent significantly more than FSU to get it, they’re at home, they have the scheduling advantage, and they’re a legitimate national title contender. But their biggest questions are at least in a place where games are won and lost. If the Noles’ defensive front is good enough to make Miami’s new offensive line look new, there’s an upset path. If Mensah is standing back there clean throwing to Toney and Barkate all night… it could be a long one.
I put this game in the Alabama tier because on a neutral field, I think Miami would be favored over Bama. The main difference is Hard Rock is not Bryant-Denny. It holds 40k less, and FSU typically has a good presence there. Plus, you never know in a rivalry game, but this feels like a massive ask for FSU to go into South Beach and beat a 40-million-dollar roster. I give them a 15% chance, and that’s mostly because I hate Miami.
This is a crucial point in the season. FSU now enters a much-needed bye week and could be sitting there with a 4-3 record and Clemson waiting on the other side. Are they still invested enough to win that game? What if disaster strikes and they are 2-5/3-4? Is Mike Norvell even still the coach? Is the team still invested in the season? What if they are 5-2? That is a big factor in how the back side of this schedule plays out.
Clemson
Clemson is probably the best example on Florida State’s schedule of why you can’t just look at preseason rankings and returning production. Last year they were No. 4 in the preseason AP poll, the overwhelming ACC favorite, and No. 1 in the entire country in returning production. They went 7–6. They started 1–3, struggled against Troy, eventually fell to 3–5, and then did somewhat salvage the year by winning their final four regular-season games.
Record note: Clemson only beat two teams with a winning record last year. 27-16 vs Troy as a 31.5-point favorite. And Louisville without Issac Brown. Just saying…
The offense is getting reset. Garrett Riley is gone, and Chad Morris is back as offensive coordinator, the same Chad Morris who helped build Clemson’s offense during the Tajh Boyd era. Morris has already said he wants about three deep shots per quarter, something they didn’t do under Riley. And that makes sense because T.J. Moore had 837 receiving yards last year and Bryant Wesco averages more than 17 yards per catch for his career. So Clemson clearly wants to get the explosives back.
The quarterback is Christopher Vizzina. He’s talented, but inexperienced in terms of starts. His only career start came against SMU last year when Cade Klubnik was hurt, and Vizzina went 29-of-42 for 317 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. That said, SMU’s pass defense was 135th in the country last year.
The offensive line lost Blake Miller, who went 17th overall in the NFL Draft, plus other major veterans like Ryan Linthicum and Tristan Leigh. The returning group isn’t devoid of experience; Harris Sewell and Collin Sadler have played a ton, but they’re changing several pieces in front of a new quarterback. That’s exactly where FSU needs to use its bye-week preparation to create pressure and confusion.
Defensively, Clemson was legitimately good last year. They allowed only 20.5 points per game, 3.5 yards per carry, and 32% on third down. The issue is how much high-end talent walked out the door. Peter Woods was a first-round pick; T.J. Parker and Avieon Terrell went in the second, Wade Woodaz in the fourth, and DeMonte Capehart in the fifth. That’s five drafted defenders. So I am absolutely not automatically assigning the 2025 defensive numbers to the 2026 unit.
That doesn’t mean Clemson suddenly has a bad defense. Sammy Brown is one of the best linebackers in the ACC, with 194 tackles, 25 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks through two seasons. Will Heldt had 15.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks last year. Tom Allen is still coordinating the defense and is now in year two.
Verdict: The good news is this year’s game is at Doak, it’s Halloween, and Florida State gets a bye beforehand. Clemson plays Virginia Tech the previous Saturday. That said, Clemson has won 9 of the past 10 and 4 in a row at Doak.
I don’t consider Clemson a miracle-level game. Clemson should still be viewed as the better team entering the season; SP+ has them 23rd and FSU 35th, but the gap isn’t enormous, and the matchup is at Florida State. With games at LSU and against Miami before FSU, Clemson could be toting a few losses into that game themselves.
Clemson has enough uncertainty at quarterback, OL, and along the defensive front that there are real places to attack. If FSU gets pressure on Vizzina, limits the deep ball, runs effectively against Clemson’s new defensive front, and stays out of obvious passing situations against Sammy Brown and Will Heldt, this is absolutely a winnable football game.
It all depends on how invested FSU is by this point if they have already lost a few games. This is a massive game for the second half of the season. If they show up ready to play in a rocking Doak… Maybe this is a game that sparks something. I’ll give FSU a 51% chance. If they’ve packed it in after a few early losses, that drops significantly.
Boston College
Boston College is the first opponent we’ve gotten to in a while where I’m comfortable saying Florida State should clearly be the better team. BC went 2–10 last year (1 win was vs an FCS team), finished 1–7 in the ACC, is picked 16th in the league this year, and sits No. 82 in preseason SP+, last among ACC teams. Their win total is only 3.5. And unlike some bad records, this wasn’t simply a bunch of close losses; seven of their ten losses were by double digits.
The numbers were ugly. They allowed nearly 33 points and 433 yards per game. Opponents averaged five yards per carry and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. BC only generated 17 sacks while allowing 35. So if Florida State is functioning offensively, they should be able to move the ball and put up points.
BC’s offense has two interesting additions. Mason McKenzie is the new starting quarterback after winning Division II conference Player of the Year at Saginaw Valley State. Last year he threw for almost 2,100 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns. That’s a massive jump in competition, but he’s legitimately dangerous with his legs. Florida State has to make him beat them as a passer instead of losing contain and giving him easy scramble yards. A D-II transfer quarterback being a star is rare. Trinidad Chambliss is the exception, not the rule.
And Evan Dickens is a real running back. He ran for 1,339 yards and 16 touchdowns at Liberty last year, ranking fifth nationally in rushing yards. To put that in perspective, Dickens individually ran for more yards than Boston College’s entire team did last season. So I expect their rushing offense to improve from the 3.3 yards per carry they averaged in 2025.
The offensive line is undergoing a massive rebuild with only one returning starter, although I wouldn’t say they’re completely inexperienced because Bill O’Brien brought in several older transfer linemen with starting experience. Still, that’s a new group playing in front of a quarterback making the jump from Division II. Florida State’s defensive front should have an advantage there.
Defensively, KP Price is the guy to know. He had 94 tackles and two interceptions last year and is a preseason All-ACC player. But BC lost its second-leading tackler, Omar Thornton, hired Ted Roof as the new defensive coordinator, and is trying to reconstruct a unit that was bad against both the run and pass. I expect improvement because up is about the only way to go, but they’re starting from a very low baseline.
Verdict: The reason I’m still not calling it a free win is obvious: it’s on the road. After watching FSU lose to Stanford last year, I’m not taking any Power Four road game for granted until this program demonstrates it can consistently handle one. And Bill O’Brien with a mobile quarterback has already embarrassed Florida State once—his first BC win was that 28–13 game at Doak in 2024 with Tommy Castellanos at QB. And Lord knows this will probably be their Red Bandana game. So there should be no overlooking them. This absolutely cannot be the Stanford game of last year.
However, Boston College was only 1–6 at Alumni Stadium last year, and every FBS team that played there won. If Florida State is still remotely healthy and motivated in November, this is a game it needs to win. I’ll give FSU 70% win confidence here.
Pitt
Pitt is one of those games where I think the schedule makes the opponent significantly harder than the preseason ranking does. The Panthers went 8–5 and 6–2 in the ACC last year; they’re picked ninth in the conference this season and their win total is 7.5. So on paper they’re basically a solid bowl team. But Florida State has to play them on the road on Friday night, six days after playing at Boston College, while Pitt gets its bye week immediately before FSU. So we’re basically talking 13 days of prep for Pitt versus six for FSU, with two long trips to the Northeast.
The biggest concern is Mason Heintschel because Florida State has already seen what he can do. He made his first career road start at Doak last year and went 21-of-29 for 321 yards in Pitt’s 34–31 win. He also ran for 64 yards. FSU did intercept him twice, so he wasn’t perfect. But now he’s had an entire offseason as QB1 after throwing for 2,354 yards and 16 touchdowns as a freshman.
Pitt’s backfield should still be good. Ja’Kyrian Turner ran for 745 yards and seven touchdowns as a true freshman and had a 201-yard game against Georgia Tech. He also scored twice against FSU. But the biggest positive for the Seminoles is that Desmond Reid is gone. Reid had 200 scrimmage yards against FSU, 155 of them receiving, and caught two touchdowns. He was probably the single biggest matchup problem in that game, and Florida State doesn’t have to deal with him this time.
Pitt also has some receiver turnover, with their top 2 receivers and No. 1 tight end, who accounted for 48% of their receiving yardage and 55% of their touchdowns gone. Blue Hicks returns after averaging nearly 18 yards per catch, and they added Malik Knight after a 774-yard season at Western Carolina (where OC Kade Bell came from), so they have talent. But this is a less proven receiving room around Heintschel than he had last year.
The matchup for FSU that concerns me most is Pitt’s run defense. They allowed only 95 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry last season. For a Florida State team that wants to run the football, that’s not ideal. That said, Pitt lost Kyle Louis, an NFL Draft pick who had 81 tackles and 8.5 TFLs, and Rasheem Biles, who had 101 tackles. That’s 182 tackles and 25.5 TFL out of the linebacker room. That’s a huge hole to fill. Braylan Lovelace is still good, and the defensive line returns a lot, so I expect them to remain good against the run, but I’m not automatically giving the 2026 defense credit for 2.7 yards per carry.
The place FSU should attack is the pass defense. Pitt allowed 28 passing touchdowns and 7.1 yards per attempt last year. That’s a very different stat profile from the rush defense. So this might be one of the games where Florida State must be willing to throw more often, use play action, and force Pitt out of loaded boxes. All in all, Pitt lost 5 of its top 7 tacklers, 8 of 15 interceptions, 4 of their top 7 in PBUs, and its leader in sacks.
Verdict: Pitt is a very winnable game. Pitt was only 4–3 at home last year and just 2–3 there against Power Four teams. Florida State has also won both of its trips to Pittsburgh since Pitt joined the ACC.
What scares me is the setup. Boston College on the road Saturday. Fly back to Tallahassee. Recover. Prepare for a quarterback who already beat you. Fly all the way back north. Friday night. Senior Night. Oh, and it’s Friday the 13th, because why not… Meanwhile, Pitt has been sitting at home for two weeks preparing specifically for you.
So if Florida State wants to win this game, I think step one actually happens the previous Saturday: put belt to butt against Boston College, get the starters out, stay healthy, and don’t make that game harder than it needs to be. Then go to Pittsburgh, survive whatever Narduzzi and Kade Bell have cooked up with the extra preparation, make Heintschel beat you without Desmond Reid, attack Pitt through the air enough to keep the run game viable and turn it into a fourth-quarter football game. Pitt is notorious for fading throughout the season.
And if FSU can do that? I actually think they have a perfectly realistic chance to win. I like FSU in this game, but I don’t like the setup. I’ll give them a 45% chance to win if they are coming off a win at BC and still playing hard.
NC State
NC State is one of those programs that’s almost impossible to describe without using the word annoying. They’ve only won ten games once in their entire history, but they’ve been a consistent eight- or nine-win type program under Dave Doeren, and they have owned Mike Norvell, who is 0–4 against NC State at FSU.
The reason NC State is a team to watch this year starts with CJ Bailey. He completed almost 69% of his passes last season for 3,105 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He’s started over 20 games and thrown for over 5,500 yards and 40 touchdowns in his first two seasons. That doesn’t mean he’s perfect. He threw 3 picks against Duke, 3 against Notre Dame, and 2 against Miami and FSU held him to his second-lowest yardage total last year.
The offense does lose some significant players. Hollywood Smothers led the ACC in rushing yards per game last season, and tight end Justin Joly was First-Team All-ACC. He was their number one receiver in 2024 and number two in 2025. I’m not convinced the run game drops off much because Duke Scott averaged 5.5 yards per carry and already had a 196-yard game against Georgia Tech. They also added Victor Snow from Buffalo, who had 62 catches for 815 yards and eight touchdowns last year, so Bailey has a somewhat proven new receiver.
The defense is where I think Florida State has to attack. NC State allowed nearly 412 yards per game last year, including 273 through the air. Opponents converted almost 46% of their third downs, and NC State only had 20 sacks all season. They lost their top three linebackers: Caden Fordham, who had 143 tackles (most in the Power Four); Kenny Soares Jr., who had 80; and Cian Sloan, who had 61. That’s 284 tackles evaporated from the linebacker position.
They also lost all 4 starters on the defensive line, but did add Harvey Dyson from Tulane, who had 11.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Linebacker Popo Aguirre comes over from Miami after making 43 tackles last year to help fill the void. Two starting corners are also gone. There’s clearly a lot they have to fix from last season.
Last year’s FSU-NC State game is one of the biggest ‘don’t be fooled by the score’ games on the schedule and a glaring example of not doing the little things. NC State won 21–11, but CJ Bailey only threw for 152 yards, and their leading rusher had 84. Florida State just turned the ball over four times. They threw an interception after driving inside the NC State 10, had one punt hit an FSU player in the helmet, and had another punt muffed, giving NC State a short field for the touchdown that basically ended it.
This year’s matchup is much more favorable situationally. It’s at Doak, it’s Homecoming, and FSU gets eight days after playing Pitt on Friday night. NC State will have played three straight home games before coming to Tallahassee, meaning FSU is their first road trip in almost a month.
Verdict: For me, this is another can’t-lose type of game if Florida State wants to call 2026 a good season. This is one of the swing games you have to win. NC State is good enough to beat you, especially with Bailey at quarterback, but this isn’t Alabama or Miami, and it isn’t a disadvantaged road situation like Louisville or Pitt. You’re at home against a peer-level opponent whose defense has major questions. If Florida State is still invested in the season and playing competent football by late November, this is one you need to win. The 0-4 stat haunts me, but I’ll lean FSU to the tune of 60%.
Florida
Florida is one of the biggest rebound candidates in the country. They were 4–8 last year, but they’re basically 27th in both preseason polls, and SP+ has them all the way up at No. 20. That’s partly because Jon Sumrall is a legitimate hire. He went 43–12 in four seasons at Troy and Tulane, reached a conference championship game every year, and won three of them. And he’s got talent to work with, which was never the problem under Napier. That staff was just incompetent.
The other reason the models like Florida is returning production, but you have to break that number down. They’re 10th nationally overall at 66%, but only 55% of the offensive production returns. A big part of that was losing Lagway, who wasn’t good at Florida. The defense, however, returns 77%, which is No. 1 in the country. So when you hear Florida has great continuity, you’re really talking about the defense much more than the offense.
Offensively, the biggest question is quarterback. Florida just named Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo as the starter after competing with redshirt freshman Tramell Jones. Philo spent two years in Buster Faulkner’s offense at Georgia Tech, but he has almost no meaningful Power Four starting experience. Jones has talent but even less experience. By Black Friday, whoever holds down that job will have almost a full season behind him, but right now it’s clearly the biggest uncertainty.
The one thing that isn’t uncertain is Jadan Baugh. He ran for 1,170 yards last season, and somehow 266 of them came against Florida State. That was the second-most rushing yards in a game in Florida history. The wild part is Florida only averaged 137 rushing yards per game last year.
The receiving corps is much better than the 2025 offensive numbers suggest. Vernell Brown led Florida with 40 catches and 512 yards as a true freshman. Dallas Wilson only played four games but had 174 yards and three touchdowns, including 111 and two scores against Texas. Then they added Eric Singleton, who had 58 catches at Auburn last season and more than 2,000 career receiving yards including playing in Faulkner’s system at Georgia Tech. So if FSU throws everyone into the box to stop Baugh, Florida has enough talent outside to punish that.
The offensive line is the second biggest question mark. Florida replaces three starters, including All-American center Jake Slaughter, who went in the second round of the NFL Draft. They added Harrison Moore from Georgia Tech, who already knows Faulkner’s system, but even as of mid-August, Sumrall says they’re still working through combinations to find the starting 5.
The defense could be the best part of this football team. It returns 77% of its production: Myles Graham comes back after 76 tackles and seven tackles for loss, Jayden Woods had 3.5 sacks as a true freshman, LJ McCray is essentially being added back after missing almost all of last year with injury, and Brad White comes over after seven years coordinating Kentucky’s defense. SP+ has Florida 12th nationally on that side of the ball. Keep in mind, Ashton Daniels’ worst game by far at Auburn last year was against White’s Kentucky defense.
But last year’s Florida defense wasn’t exactly dominant. Opponents converted 44% on third down, averaged almost eight yards per pass attempt, and Florida only generated 20 sacks. Interestingly, the Gators were much better in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on only about 55% of trips. So the defense was more difficult to finish against than it was to move the ball against.
In last year’s 40–21 game, FSU had 407 yards and was only down 17–14 at halftime before Florida took over. Jadan Baugh ended up with 266 yards, Florida held the ball for almost 35 minutes, and the Gators turned a three-point halftime game into a 20-point second-half margin. That’s what Florida State has to prevent more than anything.
Verdict: Sadly, Mike Norvell is 2–3 against Florida and 0–2 against Florida’s interim coaches. Greg Knox beat him 24–21 six days after Dan Mullen was fired in 2021. Then Billy Gonzales entered last year’s game 0–4 as interim coach and got his only win by beating FSU 40–21. Gross.
That said, I think this game is winnable. It’s at Doak, the teams are projected in the same general neighborhood even though Florida is higher in SP+, and Florida’s biggest offensive uncertainty is the quarterback. If FSU can turn Jadan Baugh from a 266-yard nightmare into a normal 100-yard running back, pressure the new quarterback behind a rebuilt line, and avoid selling out so aggressively that Brown, Wilson and Singleton hit explosives.
Offensively, Florida State needs to test the run but not be stubborn. Florida allowed four yards per carry last year, but the 2026 defense may be substantially better. If Brad White has them fitting the run well, FSU has to be willing to attack a secondary that allowed nearly eight yards per attempt last season. Convert third down, stay on the field, and finish with touchdowns.
This is a game Florida State needs badly. It isn’t Alabama. It isn’t Miami. Florida may be the better projected team entering August, but this is a home rivalry game against a first-year staff with an unsettled quarterback. If FSU wants to say it had a good season, beating one of your two biggest rivals at home on Black Friday would be a heck of a way to put an exclamation point on it.
Both teams are likely to be carrying a few losses into this game, so it comes down to who wants it more. Florida has a slight talent edge and a new staff, so the messaging isn’t stale yet, so I’m going to give them a slight edge, although it is winnable at home. FSU sits at 45% for me.
Final Thoughts
That puts me at 6.64 wins. SP+ has us at 6.6, but hitting the over would put us at 7-5. FanDuel was at 6.5 but dropped to 5.5 with the juice to the over. My raw record prediction is 7-5, but there’s context I want to add.
7 swing games sit between 45-60%, and according to SP+ data, they are all sitting within a touchdown spread. The good news is that you get 5 of them at home, where FSU went 5-3 last year with some genuinely impressive wins.
The swing games are EVERYTHING. I basically see seven games that are going to determine the season: SMU, Virginia, Louisville, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, and Florida.
I think you have 2 gimme wins (NMSU and Central Arkansas), 1 you should win (BC), and 2 likely losses (Bama and Miami). Those seven alone account for 3.56 expected wins in my calculation. That is the season.
If you go:
1–5 in those swing games? You’re probably staring at 4–8
Split them and go: 3-3. You’re at least bowl-eligible
Go: 4–2. You’re probably in the 7-win neighborhood.
Go: 5–1. Now 8–4 becomes extremely realistic without having to pull any major upsets. Remember, all of these games were within a touchdown spread per the SP+ ratings.
Using a rough probability conversion of those SP+ point spreads, 6.6 is the mean. It isn’t necessarily the identity of the team because there’s almost as much modeled probability of 8 wins (28%) as there is of finishing with 5 wins (24%).
I can absolutely see a scenario where they start 2-5 / 3-4, Mike gets fired, and the season goes off the rails. I can also see a scenario where Daniels surprises us, the OL comes together, and the defense takes a step in year two. Both units finish top 30, and we win 8 or 9 games.
I do feel better about this team than last year’s. I like the coaching changes and the addition of Tom Herman, a guy who has head coach experience, to help Norvell from the booth while he’s focused on the offense. I also feel much worse about this schedule and the way it’s set up.
I look at it like this. If the team is better and doesn’t quit. The margin between them being a 5-win and 8- or 9-win team was slim last year. I don’t think UVA is a better team than last year; I don’t think NC State is either. Both of those games you realistically should have won, but you beat yourself. And now you get both at home. Don’t lose to BC as you did to Stanford. You flip those three games, plus the two cupcakes, and you’re already at 5 wins with zero real upsets.
The question is, can you avoid the Stanford type of letdown, and can you pull a Bama type of upset somewhere on the schedule? Do the little things. Stay in the fight. And ask like you’re Florida freakin’ State for once. Sorry for dumping over 8,000 words on you, but if you stuck around until the end, thanks for reading and Go Noles!