It’s time for Florida State vs Clemson. The two big dogs of the ACC. This is a meeting of the past two conference champions, yet somehow, both teams are battling to reach bowl eligibility. There is a much different feeling around this year’s matchup between the Noles and the Tigers. There may not be anything on the line (other than job security), but both teams need a win in the worst way. FSU has only won in Death Valley twice since 2001, but as crazy as this may sound, Clemson is on a 6-game losing streak to Power 4 opponents at home. Will FSU be the next team to enter Death Valley and walk out with a win, or will Clemson snap its losing streak against a struggling Seminoles squad?
The Tigers are only a slim 2.5-point favorite, basically getting the home-field advantage edge. Florida State just ended a losing streak of its own with a dominant win over a scrappy Wake Forest team, but they haven’t won a road game since the 2023 ACC Championship game. I think a lot of this game will come down to who wants it more. FSU can win, but it won’t be easy against a Tigers team that still has a lot of talent on the field.
Clemson’s offense is led by veteran quarterback Cade Klubnik. The senior has started 35 games throughout his career. Although this season has not gone the way they had hoped, the Clemson offense has started to come to life in the past few weeks. They scored over 30 points in three of the past four games and over 40 in two.
They haven’t faced the toughest slate of defenses, with only one top 25 scoring defense and 0 passing defenses ranked in the top 30, but they have faced two top 25 rushing defenses. The Tiger offense averages 28.4 points per game (70th). The strength on offense is without a doubt the passing game. Clemson’s passing offense ranks 13th in yards per game (297), 12th in passing attempts, 34th in completion percentage, and 35th in passing touchdowns.
One thing to watch is the health of this offense. Klubnik already missed a game due to an ankle injury and had it heavily taped last week vs Duke. They were without leading wide receiver Bryant Wesco last week, who was also injured. The Tigers have shuffled some on the offensive line as well. The ankle could be key because Klubnik’s mobility is one of the things that make him dangerous. He’s not a run-first quarterback, but his ability to escape pressure, move the pocket, and pick up yards with his legs is a big part of his game. He’s been pressured 92 times this season, but sacked only 8. Klubnik is also Clemson’s second-leading rusher.
Their ground game has been inconsistent this season. It ranks 109th, averaging 124 yards per game, 89th in yards per attempt (3.99), and 86th in rushing touchdowns. They have eclipsed 150 yards three times, including a 226-yard game vs Boston College, but they have also been held under 35 yards twice. FSU’s rush defense ranks 29th in the country, and both times Clemson faced a top-50 rush defense this season, they were held under 100 yards. So, hopefully, the Noles can do the same.
We saw FSU dial up some pressure last week versus Wake Forest, and Clemson’s offensive line ranks 104th in pass block efficiency. Klubnik has been good under pressure, but FSU can’t let him sit back and pick them apart. The FSU defense did a good job of taking away the run versus Miami, but in turn got burned in the pass game. If they take that same approach this week, I think they can take away the run, but they cannot afford to have the same results against the pass. Klubnik and his receivers are good enough to do just that if FSU isn’t careful. They will need a big game from the secondary this week.
The Tigers’ offense ranks 86th in third-down conversions, 73rd in red zone conversions, and 86th in explosive plays over 20 yards. It’s not an unstoppable offense by any means, even if they have started to find their footing in the past few games. However, that hasn’t been against the best slate of defenses. Clemson has been held under 30 points five times this season and lost four of those games. I’d like to see FSU make that six times on Saturday. If they do that, I think they have a good chance to win.
Clemson brought in new defensive coordinator Tom Allen from Penn State this season, which was a splash hire at the time. Their defense has been up and down this season. They held LSU to 17, Clemson and Boston College to 10, but have also given up over 30 points three times in the past 5 games.
Clemson’s defense has faced two Top 25 scoring offenses, and FSU comes in at 7th, so it will be another test for the Tigers. Their pass defense has been tested facing four passing defenses ranked in the top 35 and 6 in the top 50. That has helped lead to the 103rd-ranked passing defense that allows 245 yards per game.
One matchup that I’ll be interested to watch unfold is Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy offense against Clemson’s top 20-ranked rush defense. The Tigers only allow an average of 106 yards per game on the ground. Syracuse is the only team to cross the 150-yard mark against them this season. However, that top 20 ranking was earned against a terrible slate of rushing offenses. They have faced one top 25 rushing offense, but the remaining teams are ranked 93rd, 110th, 113th, 117th, 119th, 124th, and 130th. That’s a far cry from FSU’s 8th-ranked rushing offense. The Noles haven’t hit 200 yards since the Virginia game, but they have hit 150 in two of the past three games, which is where I think they need to be in this one.
With Clemson’s offense getting better, I’d feel a lot better about FSU’s chances to win if they scored at least 30 points. Clemson is only allowing only average of 25.1 points per game vs Power 5 teams, but they have allowed over 30 three times and just gave up 46 to Duke. The Tigers rank 97th in turnovers created and 94th in red zone defense. They are top 25 in third-down defense.
This is still a defense that has a lot of talent to work with. They just have not performed up to the level of that talent consistently. FSU’s offense scored 42 points last week vs a solid Wake Forest defense, which was nice to see after only putting up 13 points against Stanford. I’m not sure that they score 42 this week, but 13 won’t cut it.
As I mentioned in the opening, Florida State has not had much success playing in Death Valley; however, times have changed, and the Tigers are struggling at home. With that said, this is a night game and the last big home game of the season for Clemson, so I would imagine there will be a good crowd on hand.
I think this one comes down to who wants it more. Florida State seemed inspired last week versus Wake Forest. There was an energy and intensity level we haven’t seen in a month. Whatever they did over the bye week must have worked, but will we see that again this week? One of FSU’s biggest problems has been consistency.
This is uncharted territory for this Clemson team. They must win three of their final four games just to make a bowl. Even in last year’s “down season,” they won the ACC and made the playoffs. I just question how motivated this team is at 3-5. Are they even interested in making a “who cares” type of bowl, or are they just trying to get to December so the nightmare season will end? We saw Dabo Swinney going off on his team on the sideline last week. At this point, I just think FSU wants it more, and so I’m just back on the FSU train this week and picking the Noles in a close one. Give me FSU 30 – Clemson 27. Thanks for reading, and Go Noles!
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