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Florida State returns to Tallahassee hoping to rebound from a week zero upset as they welcome in the Boston College Eagles to a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium for a Monday night prime-time matchup. There have been a lot of judgments made about this team after only one game, admittedly it did not look great, but there have been a lot of head-scratching performances across the college football landscape in week one.
This will be an opportunity for the Seminoles to rewrite the narrative that has been formed about them. They have a lot to get cleaned up from their previous performance and better come ready to play because the upset-minded Eagles led by new head coach Bill O’Brien pose a similar set of challenges as Georgia Tech.
History favors the Noles in this matchup with a 15-5 record in the series. FSU has won 12 of the past 13, and BC hasn’t won in Tallahassee since 2008. The last time FSU hosted BC the game opened with Trey Benson kickoff return touchdown and the Noles never looked back on the way to a 44-14 beatdown.
However, in the last meeting, the Eagles mounted a late-game comeback to give the Noles a 31-29 scare. Despite the letdown in week zero, Florida State remains a 17-point favorite, but the line has moved around quite a bit over the past few weeks going from as high as 22 to as low as 15.5. The majority of bets against the spread have BC covering, but an overwhelming majority of the money is still riding on the Noles to get the win.
Boston College finished 7-6 in 2023 and ended the season with a quality win over ACC newcomer SMU (which was without its starting QB) in the bowl. Not long after, head coach Jeff Hafley departed for the NFL and BC made what I feel was a home run hire in Bill O’Brien. O’Brien guided Penn State through a difficult time in the post-Joe Paterno era to a 15-9 record over two seasons, which earned him multiple Coach of the Year awards. O’Brien made an unsuccessful return to the NFL followed by a two-year stint at the Nick Saban coaching rehab facility known as Alabama in 2021 and 2022.
He now returns to college as a head coach making his debut on Monday night. Being that he has spent time at one of the most successful franchises in the NFL (New England) and programs in college (Alabama), O’Brien will bring a new mindset to a program that hasn’t won more than 7 games in a season since 2009. BC’s win projection in 2024 sits at only 4.5, which feels a little low, so the outside expectations aren’t very high in Chestnut Hill. Let’s get to know the Nole’s next opponent starting with the offense.
Bill O’Brien is an offensive coach by nature, so he will likely be the playcaller at BC. However, he does bring a familiar face as offensive coordinator, Will Lawing, who served with him at Alabama and in the NFL. Lawing served as OC at a D-III college in 2011-2012, but this will be his first stint as an offensive coordinator at this level. Their life will be made a little easier by having one of the most electric dual-threat quarterbacks in the conference, Thomas Castellanos. They will look to improve on a sub-par scoring offense last season that finished 82nd with an average of 24.8 points per game.
BC returns 80% of its offensive production from last season led by Castellanos, who is the heart of this offense. The biggest question heading into 2024 will be whether his passing ability has improved. Last season, Castellanos threw for 2,248 yards with a 57.3% completion percentage, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He ranked 54th in QBR (63.7) and 137th in PFF Pass grade (57.7). Castellanos only topped the 200-yard mark in 4 of 13 games, but he had his best game of the season against a flu-ridden FSU defense going for 400 all-purpose yards. We’ve heard all the right things throughout camp that he has made a noticeable improvement, but the real test will come on Monday night.
One thing that is not questioned is his running ability. Last season, Castellanos rushed for 1,222 yards and 13 touchdowns with 4 games topping the 100-yard mark. When I asked Bill O’Brien how he plans to use that ability in 2024, he told me that they do not plan to reign him in because they know how dynamic that ability is and what it can do for their offense.
At the same time, that ability opens him up for injury and the backup situation at quarterback is questionable with little experience behind Castellanos. O’Brien is no stranger to mobile quarterbacks having Bryce Young at Alabama and Deshaun Watson at Houston. Florida State did a poor job of stopping the run against GT last week allowing almost 200 yards on the ground including 54 yards to QB Haynes King.
At receiver, Lewis Bond returns after leading the team in receptions (52) and yardage (646) by a wide margin. No other BC receiver topped the 350-yard mark last season, but BC will get some help from the portal. Texas Tech transfer Jerand Bradley will start at the X position and poses a matchup threat standing at 6-foot-5. Bradley put up 1,175 yards on 87 receptions with 10 touchdowns over two seasons with the Red Raiders. He will share duties with Dino Tomlin (Pittsburg Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin’s son), who earned an “or” by his name after putting up 312 yards last season.
At the Y receiver position, Jaedn Skeete is listed as the starter after putting up 157 yards as a freshman in 2023 and being reported to have had a good fall camp. He will share duties with 5-foot-8 speedster Jayden McGowan, who transferred in after two seasons at Vanderbilt. McGowan racked up 836 yards on 80 receptions at Vandy, but only 88 of those yards came against SEC defenses and 66% of his yards were against non-P5 teams. BC brought in UNC transfer tight end Kamari Morales, who put up 158 yards on 11 receptions last season and has locked down the starting position after a solid fall camp.
Joining Castellanos in the backfield will be a running back-by-committee approach led by Kye Robichaux. While Castellanos led the team in rushing last season, Robichaux was the most productive running back with 780 yards (4.79 YPC) and 8 touchdowns. He also caught 15 passes for 108 yards last season and camp reports have been positive about the returning senior. BC will have a name in the rotation that almost every FSU fan will recognize in Treshaun Ward. He has been tabbed as their most explosive back throughout fall camp. Ward put up over 600 yards and averaged over 5 YPC last season at Kansas State. We know all too well about his ability to make people miss in a phone booth and the threat he poses to defenses.
In the trenches, BC returns three starters who are all veterans with experience. Left Guard Logan Taylor missed most of fall camp but is still listed as a starter for game one. The Eagles have a solid group up front, but the depth is thin, and they are replacing two NFL draft picks at the guard positions. Florida State will have the challenge of starting the season against the two best rushing offenses in the ACC from last season that averaged over 200 YPG each.
From a scheme perspective, O’Brien likes to expose mismatches and attack space. They will frequently use empty sets to spread teams out, which also gives the quarterback options against any type of coverage the defense may throw at them. O’Brien likes to attack the middle of the field and put zone defenders in conflict. His system allows the quarterback to make quick decisions while still hunting matchups on the outside.
They also like to use bunch formations with switch releases to create space for receivers no matter how the defense plays the formation. Another staple of the O’Brien offense is using motion and sequencing plays and formations throughout the game. They will show the same formation and motion multiple times but run different plays to confuse defenses. It is a passing system based heavily on timing and their reads work from vertical to horizontal and typically feature man and zone-beating routes on either side of the formation.
Speaking of motion, O’Brien also likes to throw to the motion man to give his fastest players a head start with the ball in their hands. What concerns me about his concepts is he always tries to get his fastest receiver lined up on the inside of the formation to create mismatches on linebackers. Outside of Blake Nichelson, and to a degree Cam Riley, FSU does not have the most athletic linebackers. This is a matchup that BC could exploit against FSU. O’Brien has also said that when a coach finds something that teams struggle to stop, keep hammering it, so if this is the case, FSU will have to make necessary adjustments fast.
BC has always had the identity of a run-heavy team and is unlikely to change under O’Brien. He adopted a lot of RPO concepts while at Alabama and runs a lot out of shotgun. He likes to use inside zone to draw in linebackers and then hit slants and crossers in the space that was vacated. With Castellanos’s dual-threat ability, teams must respect the QB run so the RPO game can be dangerous. The biggest question will be how fast they can adopt the new system, and limit mistakes during the learning curve. Additionally, does BC have the personnel to run this offense effectively?
On defense, BC was very unbalanced last season with the 26th-ranked pass defense and 121st-ranked rush defense. One of the areas they struggled most was creating pressure and negative plays. Last season, BC ranked 130th in sacks and was dead last in tackles for loss. New DC Tim Lewis brings 34 years of experience to BC but has not coached at the college level before. Most of his time was spent in the NFL, where he has not coached since 2015, and the UFL/XFL.
Lewis likes to load the box to have a numbers advantage against the run typically running 7 to 8-man boxes. He runs a lot of base defense with a safety walked up to create the numbers advantage leaving single high on the backend. He will mix odd and even fronts, which is something BC has not done in the past. On occasion, he will ask his edge defenders to drop into short zone coverages against running backs or tight ends, which I feel could be an advantage for FSU with a guy like Jaylin Lucas or Lawrance Toafili. Lewis also likes to run simulated pressures and zone blitzes with DBs and off-ball linebackers.
They will mix man and zone coverages with more zone than BC has run in the past. Lewis likes his DBs to play aggressively and attack the ball to create turnovers. Of course, this can come at the cost of giving up yards and points, which his defenses have a history of doing. He is also relatively aggressive with the blitz, so expect BC to bring pressure, even on early downs.
In the trenches on defense, BC returns 7 of its top 9 guys led by DE Donovan Ezeiruaku, who was an All-ACC selection in 2022. Ezeiruaku racked up 8.5 sacks and 14.5 TFLs in 2022 but had down year in 2023 with only 2 sacks and 6.5 TFLs. On the interior, Cam Horsley leads the charge and was BC’s highest graded defensive tackle last year per PFF. The other two starters had below average PFF grades in the 50s last season. It’s not the most high-end group, but they are solid with upside the potential if Ezeiruaku returns to his old form.
At linebacker, BC must replace its veteran leader Vinny DePalma, who led the team in tackles last season. However, they bring back 6 guys who have experience led by their number three tackler Kam Arnold. Daveon Crouch is listed as the starter alongside Arnold, but he only played 89 snaps the last two years. Bryce Steele is another name to know as a former 4-star recruit who missed last season with injury.
In the secondary, BC dealt with a lot of injury last year leading to 15 different guys getting experience. They will have big shoes to fill after their best DB (by a wide margin) Elijah Jones departed for the NFL. They also lost an eleven-game starter at safety. Amari Jackson returns at corner after playing over 700 snaps last season and had an above-average, but not great, PFF grade of 63.1, and allowed a 57.7% reception percentage. Max Tucker will step into the other starting corner role after playing 195 snaps last year. Tucker had a PFF grade of 67.1 but allowed a 76.9% reception percentage. Both of BC’s corners had a missed tackle percentage of over 20% last season, so FSU’s receivers will have an opportunity to rack up some YAC yards.
Khari Johnson will start at nickel and played 273 snaps last year but was listed as a safety and allowed an 81.8% reception percentage. At safety, it will be Jalen Cheek who played over 400 snaps with Cater Davis receiving an “or.” Unlike the experienced Cheek, Davis only played 8 snaps in 2023. The other safety will be KP Price who played 165 snaps and had a slightly below average PFF grade of 59.7 and 21% missed tackle percentage.
New DC Tim Lewis will look to improve on the Eagle’s 86th-ranked scoring defense that allowed 28.3 PPG. BC only returns 53% of its production from a defense that wasn’t exactly great a year ago. The biggest questions will be if this aggressive style of defense can create more havoc plays and how will Lewis adapt to the modern college offenses he has not faced in the past. Camp reports have stated that BC has been effective at stopping short passes and screens, so it will be important for FSU to do a better job of stretching the field vertically this week.
My biggest concern in this game is the most obvious one on the minds of all FSU fans. How well can they contain Castellanos on the ground? We said last week that the key was to make Haynes King beat FSU with his arm, which they did not do a good job of.
Another concern is how will FSU look in the trenches this week after getting pushed around by GT on both sides of the ball. BC has a history of being a physical team and FSU must own the line of scrimmage in this game. We saw a rather lackluster vertical passing game and an, at times, stubbornness to force the run into a loaded box. FSU must win the battle up front, and when BC loads the box to stop it, be willing to throw the ball to back the defense off.
They say teams make their biggest improvement between games one and two, and I certainly hope that is the case, however, hope is not a strategy. It’s time for this team to look like what we expected and heard about through fall camp. They looked ill-prepared, sloppy, and lacked physicality last week.
They must set the tone and limit mistakes this week or this is another team that is good enough to make you pay. I still believe in this team, but I need to see it. I think Mike Norvell and this staff have a better understanding of what they can and can not do, and who they can and can not trust, which led to some changes on the depth chart this week.
Last year, FSU was up 31-10 on BC with a minute left in the third quarter before a couple of fumbles allowed them to get back in it. FSU only got 7 drives last week with the new clock rules and a heavy dose of rushing by both teams. I expect them to push the pace better this week with a game under their belt for all the new pieces. FSU has had a game to work out the kinks whereas BC has not. However, BC has had all season to prepare for FSU and now has current film to study, which is something FSU does not have the advantage of.
In my opinion, BC will have a better offensive scheme, a dynamic quarterback with a full year of experience, and be a better-coached team in 2024. However, I’m banking on last week being a gut check for this team and staff, and the advantage of a packed (albeit reduced capacity) Doak Campbell Stadium.
I am most interested in seeing how this team responds to the adversity of starting 0-1 and getting embarrassed on the international stage last week. I could see a scenario where they rally and have a statement game. I also worry that last week is who this team is, and they lose again, which would lead to a long and scary road ahead. What worries me is that BC and GT are VERY similar teams with a strong ground game led by a dual-threat QB and solid-ish defense. GT just served the Eagles a game plan to beat FSU on a silver platter.
With that said, I still believe in Mike Norvell who guided the Seminoles to a 23-4 record over the past two seasons, and that FSU has a decided talent advantage (2nd in the ACC vs. 14th). I’m taking the Noles to win but I think BC covers. Give me the Noles to win at home by a score of something like 34-24. We’ll be set up and tailgating in lot 14 before the game and would love to have our PTS family stop by and say hey! Thanks for reading and Go Noles!
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