Florida State basketball heads to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament, and while expectations were buried in the basement before this season even tipped off, this team has spent the last two months proving the doubters wrong. The Noles tip off against California on Wednesday night at 7 PM, and there is genuine reason to believe they can advance.
FSU was predicted to finish dead last in the ACC this season. Dead last. In a league that now features 18 teams and a gauntlet of a conference schedule. And yet here they are, 10-8 in conference play, finishing in the middle of the pack and punching their ticket to Charlotte with a first-round bye and something to play for. That alone is a story worth telling. Even one win in this tournament would add to that story. The road ahead is undoubtedly a tough one, but there are not many teams that would sign up to play the Seminoles right now.
FSU has just one ACC Tournament win in the last five seasons. Although this is a program still finding its footing under the new regime, a win in Charlotte represents an opportunity to build something and put a stamp on a solid foundation year under Luke Loucks. Win Wednesday night, and you get No. 1 Duke on Thursday. Lose, and the season is over. The only way FSU could sneak into the NCAA Tournament is to win the ACC title. The stakes don’t need to be dressed up. It’s a one-game season for FSU from here on out, and it starts with Cal.
Scouting California
Cal comes in at 20-10 overall with a 9-9 conference record. The Bears are 65th in the NET and 63rd in the RPI. These two teams are not far from each other on paper. Their strength of schedule (86th nationally) reflects a non-conference slate that leaned soft. Cal’s non-conference SOS ranks 312th in the country. Florida State’s SOS ranked 44th nationally and 176th in non-conference. In ACC play, the Bears upset UNC and Miami but got hammered by most of the good teams they played (Louisville, Duke, Virginia, and Clemson).
The concern with Cal offensively is their star guard, Dai Dai Ames, who is averaging 16.9 points per game on the season and 16.3 in conference play. He is the engine of everything they do. FSU held to 11 points in their last meeting, and they will need to keep him in check again this time around. Justin Pippen (14.2 PPG) and John Camden (13.9 PPG) round out a legitimate three-headed scoring attack that can keep defenses guessing. Pippen led the Bears with 19 points in their last game against the Noles. Cal shoots 44.1% from the field and 35.9% from three, and their free-throw rate is excellent at 78.3% on the season.
One place to watch for FSU is on the boards. Cal allows opponents to out-rebound them by 5.5 per game in conference play, giving up 39.2 boards per night. If FSU can crash the glass and generate second-chance opportunities, that could be the edge they need.
The Rematch Factor
Does the previous matchup matter? I think it does to a degree for the confidence factor. The Noles beat Cal 63-61 in Tallahassee back in January, grinding out a two-point win in a game that came down to the wire. FSU knows it can beat this team. They have done it already on their own floor. The question is whether they can replicate that effort on a neutral court in a tournament environment where the stakes are raised.
Cal has lost two of their last four and enters on a one-game losing skid after dropping their final regular-season game at Wake Forest. FSU hasn’t been perfect down the stretch, but this is a team with real momentum.
Final Thoughts
My head tells me this is a coin flip. Two mid-tier ACC teams, eerily similar profiles, one of whom has already won this exact matchup by a whole 2 points. FSU averages 76.3 PPG in ACC play while allowing 76.9 PPG. Cal averages 73.5 and gives up 76.8. However you slice it, this one looks like another close game on paper. FSU has the experience of having beaten them once and the motivation of playing for something seemingly bigger.
My heart says the Noles find a way. Wednesday night in Charlotte feels like a moment this program has been building toward all season. They were supposed to be irrelevant by now. Instead, they are playing meaningful basketball in March. One win. Let’s get one win.
I will be on hand for the game against Cal and possibly Duke if they advance. If you see me at the game, say Go Noles! FSU tips off vs Cal on Wednesday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ACC Network from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. Stay tuned to your source for fan-focused FSU coverage here at Plant The Spear. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!