Rivalry Series Preview: The Noles vs Canes

Miami by the numbers

It’s rivalry week! The Noles hit the road for their first series away from Howser to take on the Canes at Alex Rodriguez Park in Coral Gables. The series will take place under the lights with game one on Thursday night at 7 p.m., game 2 on Friday night at 8 p.m., and the series finale Saturday night at 7 p.m.

For the first time this season, FSU fans will finally be able to watch the Seminoles play on national television as games one and two will air on ACC Network while Saturday’s game will be streaming on ACCNX.

Florida State claimed its first ACC series win last weekend against Boston College with a sweep of the Eagles. The Seminoles’ starting rotation was nothing short of dominant. Joey Volini, Jamie Arnold, and Wes Mendes didn’t allow a single earned run and racked up 24 strikeouts to only 4 walks in 17.2 innings.

After stumbling against a scrappy Mercer squad on Tuesday, the Noles turn their focus to the rivalry series against Miami. FSU swept the Canes inside Dick Howser Stadium last season to extend the all-time series lead to 162-136-4. However, the last time FSU traveled to Coral Gables it was a sweep for the home team.

Miami enters the weekend coming off a 6-5 win over FAU on Tuesday night. The Canes are now 13-9 on the season and 0-3 in ACC play after getting swept by Wake Forest last weekend. The win vs FAU snapped a four-game losing streak as Miami has gotten off to a bumpy start. They are just 2-6 in their last 8 games with series losses to UConn and Wake Forest and a 14-4 midweek loss at the hands of UCF. Miami also lost a series to the Gators earlier this season but did manage to avoid the sweep by winning the final game 13-7.

FSU vs Miami game graphic

On the Mound

Thursday night

Florida State will start with LHP Joey Volini (5-0, 0.92 ERA on Thursday night. He’ll toe the rubber against So. RHP Nick Robert (2-3, 6.08 ERA). Robert has 29 strikeouts while allowing 9 walks in 23.2 innings. He’s allowed an opponent batting average of .242, giving up 23 hits in 95 at-bats with 7 home runs. 

Friday night

LHP Jamie Arnold (3-0, 0.87 ERA) will return to his normal Friday night spot against the Canes. For Miami, Jr. RHP Griffin Hugus (2-2, 3.95 ERA) will take the mound. Hugus leads Miami in innings pitched (27.1) and strikeouts (41). He’s allowed 9 walks, 3 home runs, and an opponent batting average of .188 with just 19 hits given up in 101 at-bats.

Saturday night

LHP Wes Mendes (4-0, 0.66 ERA) will close out the series for FSU on Saturday night. The Canes will roll with r-Jr. RHP Brian Walters (2-0, 5.63 ERA). Walters has accounted for 31 strikeouts this season in 24.0 innings while allowing 9 walks and 3 home runs. Opposing hitters are batting .268 against him with 26 hits in 97 at-bats.

It’s an all left-handers vs all right-handers matchup for the starting rotations. Miami’s starters have typically gone about 5 innings before they call on the bullpen. FSU has a clear advantage here with one of the best starting trios in the country. However, FSU will need its bullpen to hold the line when called upon after a rough outing in Tuesday’s midweek game.

Florida State batters feasted on Boston College’s pitching staff racking up 28 runs on 40 hits. With that said, the Eagles are dead last in the ACC in ERA. Miami isn’t much further ahead sitting at 12th in the conference, but their staff is better than what FSU saw last weekend.

The bats fell flat against Florida and Mercer, who had two of the better pitching staffs they’ve seen this season. FSU only managed a combined 5 runs on 9 hits and struck out 24 times. They will need the bats to come alive to knock off their rival on the road.

Miami Offensive Preview

The Hurricanes’ offense isn’t bad, but it’s not exactly good either. They rank 129th in batting average (.282), 131st in slugging percentage (.439), and 160th in on-base percentage (.380). However, they are tied for 35th in hits (213) and only trail FSU in RBI by 2 (150-148). They average a slim 0.8 runs per game less than Florida State (8.6 – 7.8).

Miami had a similar trend in its last 3 series vs UF, UConn and Wake Forest. The offense was mostly held in check in games one and two, only scoring more than 4 runs once, but then exploding in game 3 scoring over 10 in all three series finales.

Lead-off man Jr. infielder Jake Ogden leads the team in batting average (.372) and hits (32). Sophomore infielder Daniel Cuvet and Gr-Sr. Bobby Marsh are also two names to know. Cuvet is batting .333 with 26 RBI and 5 home runs from the three-hole. Marsh’s average isn’t the greatest at .276, but he leads the team in RBI with 28 and also has 5 home runs from the six-hole. Miami has a total of 4 batters hitting over .300.

On the base paths, Miami is 29-32 on stolen base attempts. Senior outfielder Derek Williams leads the team with 6 stolen bases on 7 attempts. Jake Ogden is a perfect 5-5 as is Cuvet with 4 bags on 4 attempts.

FSU LHP Wes Mendes

Series Thoughts

The last time FSU was coming off a loss, they bounced right back and dominantly swept Boston College. FSU will put pressure on the Canes with its elite starting rotation, who I can’t wait to see pitch under the lights in a heated rivalry game. But can the offense come alive and do enough to win the series? I think it can, but it won’t be easy as FSU must travel to Miami where the Hurricanes are 10-2 this season compared to just 2-7 on the road.

I think FSU will be ready to rise to the challenge and walk out of South Florida with a series win leaving the Hurricanes in a tropical depression. Rivalry week is always exciting no matter the sport when you have the disdain these two programs and fan bases share for each other, and you know it’s always FMFFM! Thanks for reading and Go Noles!

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