Florida State came into Condron Ballpark on Tuesday night riding nine wins in a row and carrying genuine momentum. They left with a 6-3 loss to rival Florida and a few things to think about heading into a critical weekend in Winston-Salem.
Let’s be fair about the context. This was a midweek, early-season road game against a Power 4 rival, not a must-win in late April. FSU still sits at 13-3 and has played some impressive baseball over the past few weeks. But the issues that surfaced Tuesday night are not new ones, and that’s what makes them worth examining.
The Offense Went Quiet Again
Florida State’s hitters ran into a tough night, and a lot of it traces back to the same patterns we’ve seen in the Noles’ losses this season. The top three spots in the lineup went a combined 0-for-11, meaning FSU was consistently starting innings behind the eight ball. When your table-setters can’t get on base, the middle of the order has nothing to work with.
The strikeout number tells the story bluntly: 18 punchouts as a team against midweek arms. That’s a season-high number of Ks for the Gators pitching staff.
FSU went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, a frustrating number that shows the opportunities were there and simply not cashed in, something that has been an issue more often than not this season. Cal Fisher’s two-run single in the second inning kept things interesting early and Will Bavaro’s RBI single in the fourth made it a 5-3 game. But after that fourth inning, FSU’s bats went completely silent.
An Inconsistent Night on the Mound
Now, I want to be fair here. The strike zone on Tuesday night was not consistent. Multiple FSU pitchers clearly struggled to get calls on borderline pitches, and that is a real thing that happened. When you can’t trust the corners, pitching strategy changes entirely. That said, a 51.6% strike percentage is difficult to defend regardless of who’s behind the plate. Nine walks, a hit by pitch, and three wild pitches is a recipe for losing baseball games, and Florida made FSU pay for it in a five-run third inning that really opened the floodgates. Johnny Abraham gave way to Kevin Mebil, then Chris Knier and a parade of arms that never quite found a rhythm.
Florida’s third inning was the ball game. Five runs, five hits, and the kind of snowball inning that happens when pitchers are behind in counts and hitters are sitting on fastballs. Luke McNeillie (2-0) got the win after a solid outing, and closer Whritenour picked up his second save finishing things off for UF.
Final Thoughts
So, now what? Well, there’s good and bad with this baseball team at the moment. They have looked pretty good against lesser competition over the past couple of weeks. However, FSU is 1-3 against Power 4 competition this season. In fairness, those losses were against three pretty good teams in No. 6 Auburn (13-2), Nebraska (10-5) and No. 23 Florida (15-3).
Those are three good ball clubs, and being a midweek, the Noles weren’t rolling out the weekend rotation in tonight’s game. That, and being early in the season, are what gives me hope they will get the kinks worked out.
What does concern me is that the mistakes and offensive struggles keep showing up, especially against better competition, and the upcoming schedule does them no favors with 5 series remaining against currently ranked teams.
The Noles cannot dwell on Tuesday. They turn around and travel to Winston-Salem to face No. 12 Wake Forest, a team that is 15-1 overall and 11-0 at home. This is not a series where FSU can take a game off to find themselves. The Demon Deacons are legitimate, and their home field is one of the tougher environments in the ACC this year.
My biggest question heading into the weekend is whether this offense can get going, especially the top 3 in the lineup. When Stuetzer, Sheffield, and Bailey are producing, this team has real teeth. When they’re not, 18 strikeouts happen. The pitching staff will need to sharpen up as well. The weekend starters have been solid, but tonight’s struggles were by the big arms from the bullpen, which will be relied upon to close out crucial games.
This is a tough stretch of the schedule. It’s the kind of stretch that defines what a team is actually made of. FSU needs to bounce back in a big way this weekend. Thanks for reading and Go Noles!