Florida State is set to kick off its 2025 season in grand fashion. They will take the field inside a newly renovated (and sold out) Doak Campbell Stadium against a preseason top 10 Alabama squad on national TV. Can the Seminoles send a message that 2024 is no more? Or will the tide spoil the beginning of the comeback campaign in 2025?
There’s no question that Alabama is the overwhelming favorite on paper as a 13.5-point favorite and given a 90% chance to win by ESPN’s matchup predictor. However, games aren’t played on paper, and we heard the same things when FSU was set to face LSU in 2022.
The Crimson Tide is coming off a 9-4 season in year one under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. It was an up-and-down season that featured a win over UGA and blowout wins over a ranked LSU and Missouri. There were also some low points, like losing to Vanderbilt and getting blown out by a 6-win Oklahoma team. They also lost 2 of their final 3 games.
One interesting stat to know is this will be Alabama’s first true non-conference road game and only second on the road vs a Power 4 team since 2000 (a game they lost). In year one under DeBoer, Alabama went 2-4 outside of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Unfortunately, Alabama hasn’t lost a season-opening game since 2001… Hopefully, there’s some of that home team magic in Doak this Saturday!
Make no mistake, Alabama is still a top-tier program with lots of hype for the upcoming season. They are tied for fifth in the most returning starters (14), and rank second in the country in blue-chip ratio (78% vs FSU at 53%). They also hired DeBoer’s right-hand man, Ryan Grubb, at OC this offseason, and as the saying goes, teams typically make their biggest jump from year one to year two. This is going to be a monumental challenge for FSU.
The Tide’s offense is going to look a lot different this season. Last year was built around dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe’s skill set. He led Bama in passing and rushing yards. Enter Ryan Grubb and new quarterback Ty Simpson, who will create a more traditional pass-heavy offense. Fourth-year junior Ty Simpson is still mobile and hard to bring down, so he will be a factor in the run game. However, Grubb does not typically run his quarterbacks like they did Milroe, and he’s already on record saying that Simpson is more valuable to the offense as a passer.
Although he’s been in college for a while, Simpson has very limited game experience. Can he rise to the occasion in his first career start on the road? Over his first three seasons, Simpson has only played 188 snaps, and 68% of those came against non-Power 4 teams (21% against FCS). Of those 188 snaps, 123 of them were run plays. Simpson has all the talent in the world as a former five-star, but he’s never dealt with game pressure. He has yet to enter a game that wasn’t already out of hand. Simpson’s career stats are 30/51 (58.8%), 381 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He had only had two games where he threw multiple passes vs a Power 4 defense, and has yet to throw a pass more than 10 yards vs a Power 4 defense. Now, he could come out like Jameis vs Pitt in 2013, and we are in trouble, but this inexperience is the number one factor I’m banking on in FSU’s favor.
Tony White’s defense can be confusing to veteran quarterbacks, let alone one making his first career start. If FSU can create pressure and make him uncomfortable, it could lead to mistakes. Unfortunately, Simpson will have one of the best receiver corps in the country to work with. Breakout freshman Ryan Williams returns after leading Bama in yards (865) and touchdowns (8). Williams started the season hot, putting up at least 50 yards in 7 of the first 8 games, including a 177-yard performance vs Georgia. However, he tailed off late in the season, only putting up 50+ yards in 1 of the final 5 games. His reception percentage was only 55.2% with 7 drops.
He will be joined by veteran receiver Germie Bernard, who is one I’m keeping my eye on. Williams was the explosive home run hitter, but Bernard was the consistent base hitter. He led the team in receptions (50) and was close second in yards with 794. Bernard put up 50+ yards in 10 of 13 games and had a 68.5% reception percentage with only 2 drops. Bama also now has a third threat to deal with in Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, who also brings size at 6-foot-4, 208 pounds. The redshirt junior caught 56 passes for 616 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. He has a 71.8% reception rate with 4 drops. This is a solid receiving core from top to bottom and will be the biggest challenge for the FSU defense if the new quarterback can take advantage of it.
The Tide will need to move the ball on the ground without the services of their senior starter running back Jam Miller, who sustained an injury in fall camp and will be out for the game against FSU. This leaves Bama with a rotation of talented but inexperienced backs to fill the void. They have three blue-chip players who all have less than 30 carries in college. They also have Louisiana transfer Dre Washington as an option, who brings by far the most experience.
Being without Jam Miller adds pressure to Ty Simpson, who may need to run the ball more and will also have to make sure protections are set, etc. I think the pass pro and blocking aspects of Miller’s loss are almost a bigger aspect than his presence in the run game itself. With Milroe gone (NFL), Miller out (injury), and Justice Haynes gone (transferred), the Tide lost over 80% of its rushing production from a year ago.
Alabama is projected to have a strong offensive line with some returning experience, including two All-SEC selections. However, it does appear that they will be without starting guard Jaeden Roberts, who has missed almost all of fall camp with a concussion. That means three new starters for the FSU game. For all they are made out to be, this unit was 48th of 68 teams in pass block efficiency last year. They were 59th (of 134) in sacks allowed and 49th in yards per carry.
Those numbers aren’t stellar, and an Alabama insider that I recorded a podcast with said they will be solid, but some of the incoming players aren’t as good as those they are replacing. This unit still projects to be top 10 nationally, but I can see where FSU can have some opportunities. Keep in mind, James Williams was the most productive pass rusher in the country last year based on workload.
My main question for the Alabama offense is, where do they go? Do they lean on the strength of the receivers but risk putting the game on the arm of an inexperienced quarterback? Or do they try to protect Simpson and lean on the run without their starting running back and an offensive line replacing three starters?
Unfortunately, Alabama’s defense is my greater concern in this game. First year DC Kane Wommack and his 4-2-5 Swarm defense did not skip a beat after Saban’s departure. They finished top 10 in scoring defense, pass efficiency, and interceptions. They were top 20 in the fewest number of explosive plays allowed over 20 yards and pass defense. It wasn’t all perfect as they were 64th in run defense (gave up over 200 yards rushing 4 times), 64th in sacks (only 25 and lost 11 of those), and 61st in TFL.
For 2025, Alabama’s defense projects to be solid at all three levels. There is no obvious weakness. The secondary is the projected strength with 4 of 5 starters returning, and 4 of 5 are upperclassmen. Safety Bray Hubbard was a top-10 graded safety in the country last year, per PFF.
The one thing that does give me hope against this defense is that there are some depth concerns on the defensive line. We also just received an update that Alabama’s starting nose tackle, Tim Kennan III, is likely going to miss this game after sustaining an injury on Tuesday. This would be a massive loss for the Tide as Kennan is a fifth-year senior, team captain, preseason All-American, and the highest-graded returning defensive lineman.
His replacement is likely going to be a redshirt freshman who has played 30 snaps in college. This also further eats into the depth we previously mentioned. The starters are solid, but there is only so much gas in the tank. The Bama insider I mentioned earlier said he would attack this defense on the edges by running and with screens to tire out those defensive linemen. Bama’s run defense was also its weakness last year.
The reason this sounds good is that this is exactly what Gus Malzahn likes to do on offense. FSU isn’t going to be a pass-heavy team throwing into the teeth of that secondary. They will have to pass to set up the run, and I expect them to make Tommy Castellanos prove he can do that. Bama’s defense is my greater concern, but I also like the way FSU matches up against it. If they can throw enough to establish the run, they could have a successful day.
My biggest question for FSU’s offense against this defense is, can you get to 30 points? I do believe with the inexperience on offense for Bama, 30 points could win this game for FSU. However, Alabama only gave up 30 points twice in thirteen games last year and only gave up over 20 five times. It’s going to be a tough task for the FSU offense, but if they can get to the high 20s or low 30s, I think they will have a good chance to pull the upset.
There is a lot of pressure on both teams to win this game. After last year, if Bama were to lose to FSU, the Tide faithful would all but break out their pitchforks for DeBoer. For FSU, more specifically Mike Norvell, he needs a win in the worst way and cannot afford another embarrassment. FSU needs to at least be competitive in this game if they don’t win.
For me, there are two main points that this game comes down to for FSU to win. First is to play a clean game. Alabama is far too good to give them extra opportunities by committing turnovers. FSU was awful in turnover margin last year, and Tommy Castellanos had 3 games last year at BC (out of 7.5 total) where he turned the ball over 3 or more times. That simply can’t happen if FSU wants to win.
They also need to limit penalties, which we heard were an issue early in fall camp. In three of the four losses for Bama last year, they also lost the turnover battle. The Tide was also 113th in penalties per game last year. Playing a cleaner game is paramount if FSU wants to pull the upset.
Point number two is that we need to win the quarterback battle. The one edge FSU has coming into this game is that Bama is rolling out an inexperienced quarterback. Simpson has never played meaningful minutes and will be making his first start on the road in a sold-out stadium. In fact, this is the first Alabama quarterback to make his first start on the road in 21 years.
FSU needs to find a way to create pressure and rattle Simpson early. They can’t let him settle in and find his groove, because with that receiving core, FSU could be in trouble if he does. For Tommy he has the edge of experience. He has played 1,200 more snaps than Simpson in college. My worry is that experience will lead to more risk-taking and potentially more mistakes.
We need Tommy to have a big day, but not try to do too much and end up hurting our chances. Diego Pavia led an overmatched Vanderbilt team to a massive upset over Bama last year by playing a clean game and taking what the defense gave him. He took zero sacks, had zero turnovers, and had an 80% completion rate because 80% of his passes were under 20 yards. He didn’t get greedy and got the win. We need that from Tommy in this game- that and to use his electric running ability. Tommy breaking off a few long runs could be the difference in this game.
In the end, I’m excited that football is back, and I’m ready to bury last season for good. I’m ready to see Doak’s transformation and the energy that this type of game will bring. This team is almost impossible to predict with so many changes, but that’s a good thing after last season. FSU will have 20 of 22 new starters and 7 of 10 new coaches when they kick off vs. Alabama. This is literally a different team than the one who went 2-10 last year, and hopefully, we see different results.
I understand this is going to be a massive test in game one, and a lot to ask of FSU to go pull off an upset like this. But I like the moves they made in the offseason and would be the least bit surprised if they did. My head tells me FSU keeps it competitive, but Bama wins 31-20. My heart that pumps my garnet and gold blood says FSU wins a close one as John Papuchis draws up another special teams miracle to secure FSU a 24-21 victory! I guess we’ll have to wait until Saturday to see if the head or heart was right, but one thing is certain: football season is back! Thanks for reading, and Go Noles!
Share this Article with other Nole fans!
