There are several questions that defined Florida State’s offseason: the retirement of Gus Malzahn, an offensive line that will feature five new starters, how the defense will perform in year two under Tony White, but none felt bigger than the question mark at the quarterback position. A question we’ve not had a solid answer for since the days of Jordan Travis. Many Seminole fans are simply asking: Are we in for another disappointment at quarterback, thus leading to another disappointing season?
After two straight seasons of watching the Noles struggle to find consistency at the most important position on the field, the Noles will turn to redshirt senior Ashton Daniels in 2026. The Auburn transfer arrives in Tallahassee as the named starter heading into fall camp, and if you’re reading this, you probably already have an opinion on him. A lot of Nole fans do. I did too, until I actually did the homework.
I spent a significant amount of time digging into his numbers, watching film from the Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Alabama games at Auburn, plus the 2024 Clemson game from his Stanford days. I wanted to see the best and the worst of him before forming a real take. What I found was more nuanced than the hot takes you’ll see online. FSU has talent at the skill positions, but is Daniels good enough to turn that into wins? It’s hard to find faith in a position that, outside of Jordan Travis, has been a black hole since Norvell arrived in Tallahassee. So, there are doubts, for sure, but my answer might surprise you. Let me break it down.
The Big Picture on Ashton Daniels
Let’s not sugarcoat the career numbers. Across 23 Power 4 starts and 37 total appearances, Daniels has completed 60% of his passes for 4,783 yards with a 24/22 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also carried the ball 346 times for 1,401 yards and 11 touchdowns, though 17 fumbles are part of that package too. You’re not going to look at those numbers and start booking Heisman trip tickets to New York.
The Stanford history is real, and it’s fair to acknowledge. Two seasons there, 20 interceptions, teams that went 3-9 twice. That’s not something you just wave away. We tried to dismiss, well, less than exceptional history for the past two signal callers in Tallahassee, and as it turned out, that’s just who they were.
But context matters. And this is where I think a lot of the quick dismissals of Daniels fall short. College football is a lot about “what have you done for me lately,” and in Daniels’ defense, there’s a clear difference between his time at Stanford and at Auburn. Which version we get will likely go a long way in determining how the season goes.
Daniels is an experienced veteran who has played in some big environments. This level is not new to him. He’s a big-bodied, punishing runner with sneaky elusiveness. I have no doubts about what he brings to the ground game, but his passing has left some to be desired. Thankfully, we saw flashes of what is possible last season at Auburn, so let’s address a few caveats to his history and discuss why the 2025 season gives reason for hope.
The Offensive Line Problem Nobody Talks About
Here’s the thing that jumped out at me more than anything else when I started pulling the numbers. Ashton Daniels has consistently been one of the most pressured quarterbacks in college football, and he’s done it behind some genuinely bad offensive lines. This is not breaking news to anyone, but quarterbacks struggle under pressure, all of them.
In 2023 at Stanford, his offensive line ranked 66th of 68 Power 4 teams in pass block efficiency per PFF. In 2024, they were 60th. Even at Auburn, the line ranked just 60th. To put this into perspective, the worst offensive line at FSU that many of us have ever seen with our own two eyes (2024) ranked 63rd. I’m not sure it would have mattered who was playing quarterback behind that line. Things were so bad at Stanford in 2024, no running back on the roster scored a single touchdown the entire season, which I believe is an NCAA record, and not in a good way.
Enter Herb Hand. The Noles’ new o-line coach assembled five new starters last year and took FSU from 63rd to tied for 17th in his first season. Yes, we are starting over again up front, but I trust him to field a serviceable unit until he gives us reason not to. Even if FSU can finish top 30, that would be a massive improvement over anything Daniels has played behind before.
He faced pressure on 45.1% of his attempts in 2023 (6th-highest rate in the country) and 39.8% in 2024 (16th-highest). The story remained much of the same last season at 40.9% (10th-highest).
In fairness, he shares some of the blame. At Auburn, his QB-owned pressure rate was actually the 4th-highest among Power 4 quarterbacks at 34%, which suggests he needs to get the ball out faster. Jackson Arnold, playing behind the same Auburn offensive line, owned just 20.3% of his pressures. That’s a real issue. But you also have to understand that after years of playing behind bad lines, when you’ve been pressured that relentlessly for that long, you develop habits, some of them bad ones.
Here’s why this is so massively important, and probably the single-most important finding of this entire article. The difference between Daniels’ passing from a clean pocket compared to being under pressure is night and day. (Career averages as a starter)
Clean Pocket (57.7% of total dropbacks): 326/473 (68.9%) | 3,311 yards | 15 TD – 9 INT
Under Pressure (42.3% of total dropbacks): 106/249 (42.3%) | 1,437 yards | 9 TD – 13 INT
That is a major difference in efficiency when not under pressure. That doesn’t even include 22 dropped passes from a clean pocket that would put him at 73.6%. He had 12 drops under pressure, which equates to a 47.4% completion percentage. Even his PFF grades show a clear difference (career averages). Clean grade: 74.5. Pressured grade: 50.1. Of his 22 career interceptions, 13 came under pressure. Nine did not. The ones that didn’t are the ones I’m more concerned about.
Giving Daniels a clean pocket alone could be the difference between a good and sub-par season at the quarterback position. In case you were wondering, last year at FSU, Tommy had a clean pocket 66.8% of dropbacks and was under pressure 33.2%. Not to mention that TC was tied for 11th-highest in QB-owned pressure percentage at 26.2%.
What the Film Actually Shows
The Vanderbilt game was the most encouraging thing I’ve watched from him. He started 20 of 24 for 228 yards and a touchdown, added 42 rushing yards, and was legitimately carving up a defense before throwing his first bad pass two and a half quarters in. In total, 457 all-purpose yards and 4 touchdowns. And that included having a 51-yard touchdown run called back. I only counted two, maybe three bad passes that were actually on him the whole game.
Now, Vanderbilt was 118th in pass defense last year, and that matters. But here’s an interesting footnote: Daniels had the most passing yards against them of any quarterback all season. That includes a Tennessee passing offense that finished top 10 nationally and an Alabama offense that was top 30 with a first-round pick at quarterback. Obviously, teams are allowed to get better from year-to-year, but it is worth mentioning that six teams on FSU’s 2026 schedule finished last season ranked 100th or worse in pass defense.
The Kentucky game was rougher, but the circumstances weren’t quite the same. His first start at Auburn, Hugh Freeze still calling plays, a backup center who the broadcast noted was literally 17 years old and the youngest starting offensive lineman in the country, and 50% of his dropbacks coming under pressure. Auburn quarterbacks were sacked seven times and came a couple of scrambles short of nine. They had no answer for the Wildcats up front. When they put Jackson Arnold in, it didn’t get better. When Daniels had a clean pocket in that game, he was 10/15 (66.7%) for 83 yards. Under pressure, he was 3/13 (23.1%) for 25 yards and an interception. The yardage was bad either way, but you see the difference in efficiency. Daniels still posted 80 sack-adjusted rushing yards.
The Alabama game, even in condensed form (the only film I could find), showed both sides. Some good throws, some iffy decisions, but he was responsible for 367 of Auburn’s 411 total yards and accumulated 373 all-purpose yards on a sack-adjusted basis against a top-tier defense despite the Auburn receivers dropping SEVEN passes that game. Auburn actually outgained Alabama by 131 yards, and Daniels was the engine. A lot of people don’t realize how close that game was to being an upset.
The Clemson game from 2024 Stanford is the version that scares you. They were moving the ball, but two early interceptions from questionable decisions basically ended it before it ever started. His receivers were struggling to create separation, and he was under heavy pressure. That film is worth keeping in mind, but I think the receiver part is the one thing worth noting. The level of talent at receiver he had at Stanford versus Auburn was not even close, and it showed on film. FSU is much closer to, if not better than, his receivers at Auburn than Stanford.
The Numbers That Actually Changed
Here’s where I started to feel better about the Auburn version of Daniels.
At Stanford, he threw interceptions on 3.7% of his passes over two seasons. At Auburn, that number dropped to 1.6%, and honestly, neither pick was on him. One was a Hail Mary on fourth and 20 at the end of a half. The other was a perfect pass that hit the running back in the hands, deflected, and was picked off by an Alabama defender.
His turnover-worthy play percentage dropped. His fumble rate dropped dramatically (6.1% at Stanford versus 1.85% at Auburn). His QBR jumped from 49.9 to 67.9. That’s a guy who got better in a new environment with better pieces around him. The sample size was much smaller at Auburn, but the improvement was real, and against good teams. The question is whether he can continue that trajectory here.
With the improvements in passing and taking care of the ball we saw at Auburn, you can start to see the picture I am trying to paint. When you add in the consistent effectiveness in the run game, we might be selling Daniels short. In sack-adjusted yards per carry, he ranked in the top 15 among Power 4 quarterbacks with at least 50 carries at Auburn and top 10 at Stanford in 2024. He was also top 10 in runs of 10+ yards by quarterbacks in 2024. In five of his last 14 starts across the past two seasons, he rushed for over 100 sack-adjusted yards. That’s a legit presence in the ground game coming from a 6-foot-2, 230-pound frame that is built to take it.
My Biggest Concerns
I want to be straightforward about the concerns, because they’re real.
My single biggest concern, which most of Nole Nation shares, is the turnover problem. However, as we discussed previously, he got much better about taking care of the ball last year, and that needs to continue this year. I don’t expect him to have none, but it can’t be as bad as we saw at Stanford or things will go sideways in a hurry. In fairness, Jameis Winston had 44 turnovers in two seasons at FSU. However, he also had 72 touchdowns. Protecting the ball is key, but if there’s enough good to offset the bad, we can live with the tradeoffs.
My second concern. The deep ball is not his strength. On throws of 20+ yards, his completion percentage ranked 66th of 92 Power 4 quarterbacks in 2025 (minimum attempt filter applied). His Big Time Throw Rate (dropping it in a bucket downfield) was 50th. Yet, he ranked 3rd-highest in turnover-worthy play percentage on deep passes. As you can see, this is where he starts to get into trouble. The numbers at Stanford were almost identical.
70% of his interceptions have come in just 37% of his passing attempts on throws that were 10-plus yards downfield. He’s not the guy you’re drawing up fade routes for on third and twelve without holding your breath. That’s why sixty-one percent of his passes at Auburn were under 10 yards. They figured out his strengths and weaknesses and played to them as much as possible.
This creates an interesting schematic wrinkle for Mike Norvell. With Jordan Travis, the Noles leaned heavily on the mid-range (10-19 yard) passes, 30.6% of attempts in 2022, 26.5% in 2023. Travis was also running screens at a 17-22% clip. Daniels has never thrown over 20% in the mid-range and ran screens on just 6.5% of his attempts at Auburn. This offense is going to look different, and it probably should.
The Tommy Castellanos-led offense last year had 50% of passes going 10-plus yards, with 23% going over 20. Daniels’ Auburn splits were 26.2% over 10 and 13.1% over 20, literally half. The spray-and-pray deep ball offense that defined 2025 was never going to work with this quarterback, and frankly, I’m not sure it would have worked with anybody if it hadn’t been for Duce Robinson.
My other concern is the winning pedigree, or lack of it. His team records are 3-9, 3-9, and 5-7. A lot of that is the situations he was in, and I don’t think it’s fair to hang all of those losses on him. But there’s something to be said for having a quarterback who knows what it feels like to win big games. He doesn’t have that yet.
Defining Realistic Expectations
If you want my honest read after all of this: He’s not a quarterback who’s going to consistently win you games with his arm. He’s not going to drop back and work through four progressions in a clean pocket and carve up a defense with surgery-level accuracy. That’s just not who he is, and if we expect him to be that guy, we’re going to be disappointed.
What he can do: move the pocket, evade pressure, hit open to semi-covered receivers in the short-to-mid range, make something out of a busted play, and hurt you on the ground. He’s 6-2, 230 pounds, and he runs through people, not around them. He’s not gimmicky the way Tommy was. He’s more of a between-the-tackles power runner who also happens to be the quarterback, which is an asset in its own right.
The fact that his assistant QB coach from Auburn came over to FSU with him is something I don’t want to gloss over. Daniels has credited that coach with a big part of his development last year. Continuity in the quarterback room matters.
What Success Looks Like
Using his Auburn averages from three starts (he missed two drives in the Kentucky game and had no cupcake games to pad stats), he was on pace for roughly 3,850 all-purpose yards: about 2,880 passing and 980 rushing.
Realistically, for FSU to have a successful season, I’d like to see him hit at least 3,500 all-purpose yards (2,700 passing, 800 rushing). That’s roughly 225 passing yards and 67 rushing yards per game. The rushing number is achievable; he’s been near or above that mark in three of his seasons as a starter. The passing number is where he needs to improve. He’s never reached it as a consistent average.
For touchdowns, 25 all-purpose scores (20 passing, 5 rushing) feels like a reasonable bar. Keep turnovers under 10 total, including both interceptions and fumbles. That still sounds like a lot, but the expectation here has to be improvement, not perfection.
The Rest of the Room
Kevin Sperry is the backup to watch. He’s a talented dual-threat who got some time last year and looked comfortable when things were going well. He didn’t quite look the same when he came in against Stanford, but he’s a better option at QB2 than Brock Glenn in my view. It was reported that Sperry pushed Daniels in the spring, so the gap might not be huge, and that’s not a bad thing. Expect him to get reps early in the season against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas.
Malachi Marshall is the wild card, and honestly the most intriguing name in the room. He led Iowa Western to a JUCO national championship, finished second nationally in passing yards (2,750), and led the NJCAA in passing touchdowns (33) and passing efficiency, and was named the NJCAA Offensive Player of the Year and a First-Team All-American. He was the top-ranked JUCO quarterback available per the 247Composite. I’ll be honest: I think he’s probably the most naturally talented passing quarterback on the roster in terms of fitting what Norvell wants to do. He just wasn’t here for spring camp, and he’s coming from a level miles below Power 4. That translation risk is real, and you can’t ignore it. He was also 170 pounds when he arrived in Tallahassee. This conversation might be totally different if Marshall was 20 pounds heavier and had been here in spring. But if things go sideways, I’d want to see what he can do. My hope is we at least get to see what he’s got early in the season in the two cupcake games.
Dean DeNobile rounds out the depth. He started 35 games at Lafayette (64.7%, 7,007 yards, 53 touchdowns against 24 interceptions) but only played twice against Power 4 competition and threw 2 touchdowns to 3 interceptions with 263 yards in those games combined. He’s experienced depth and nothing more. If we need him, we have bigger problems.
Final Thoughts
Look, in all honesty, I wasn’t high on Ashton Daniels when this first came together, and I’ll own that, but I understood the take for a Gus Malzahn offense (who was still the OC when Daniels was announced). After really digging in, I still don’t think it was the most exciting portal acquisition FSU could have made, but they weren’t trying to pay up for a quarterback, so here we are. However, I do think there’s a version of 2026 where this works.
If Mike Norvell and Tim Harris Jr. build an offense around what Daniels can actually do rather than asking him to be something he isn’t, if Herb Hand’s offensive line is even in the neighborhood of what it was last year, if the skill position weapons stay healthy and catch the ball (looking at you, Auburn receivers), this quarterback can be functional. Better than what we’ve had the past two years.
He doesn’t need to win the race. He just needs to avoid crashing the car. The talent around him at running back, receiver, and tight end should take some of the weight off his shoulders. FSU needs a chain-moving, drive-sustaining offense that hits big plays when they come naturally and doesn’t force them.
I’ve often said that it feels like we’re rinse-and-repeating an unsuccessful method at the position for a third consecutive season. Taking an otherwise “broken” quarterback who hadn’t had a lot of success at their previous programs and thinking we can “fix” them at a place that hasn’t shown the ability to develop a quarterback outside of Jordan Travis. While the 2024 team had a LOT of problems, DJU was hurt and lost his mobility behind an atrocious offensive line. Tommy Castellanos came and went with a turnover problem that never improved and also sustained an injury that changed the dynamics of what made his game worth the shortcomings.
Will the third time finally be the charm? Will Daniels be able to stay healthy and impact the ground game the way we need him to? Will he be able to be “unlocked” if he gets a decent offensive line for the first time in his career and capable receivers to throw to? That’s the question that burns in the back of every FSU fan’s mind as the season approaches.
The preseason expectations are low. CBS has him as the 12th-best quarterback in the ACC, and Phil Steele has him tied for 10th. I won’t blow smoke and tell you I expect him to be a top 5 passer in the conference, but as a total package, if a few things hit, I see a path to him exceeding those expectations. Get the Auburn version of Ashton Daniels, and this team has a real shot at something. Get the Stanford version, and, well, we’ll probably be looking at a coaching search when the dust settles. Thanks for reading, and Go Noles!