As of August 23, 2026, I’m more bullish on Florida State than the 5.5-win market, but I’m certainly not ready to call this a playoff team. The reason: the underlying 2025 numbers were considerably better than the 5–7 record. FSU averaged 33.0 points and 472.1 yards per game while allowing 22.0 points and 328.8 yards per game, and Duce Robinson returns after a 1,081-yard season. Ashton Daniels adds a legitimate dual-threat element at quarterback. SP+ has FSU No. 35 nationally, so this is basically a talented top-35 team playing a schedule that includes several top-20 opponents.
Below are my game-by-game thoughts and win percentage
1. New Mexico State – Aug. 29th [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 94%
New Mexico State isn’t quite the automatic 50-point sacrificial lamb people might assume, but FSU should have no trouble here unless something goes catastrophically wrong. The Aggies finished 4–8 last year and enter Tony Sanchez’s third season with a rebuilt roster and Furman transfer Trey Hedden expected to quarterback the offense. Hedden is experienced enough to punish busted coverages, so this isn’t a game where FSU should sleepwalk defensively. But the mismatch in line-of-scrimmage talent is substantial. More importantly, this game gives Ashton Daniels, Tim Harris Jr.’s offense, and Florida State’s reworked personnel a live rehearsal before SMU. I expect FSU to establish the run, involve Duce Robinson early, rotate heavily in the second half, and win. Anything closer than two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter would concern me.
2. SMU – Sept. 7th [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 54%
This is the first game where we find out whether FSU is actually improved or whether we’re just talking ourselves into another talented-but-flawed Norvell roster. SMU is legitimately good. The Mustangs went 9–4 last year, return veteran quarterback Kevin Jennings, are ranked No. 19, and were picked second in the ACC behind Miami. Since joining the ACC, Rhett Lashlee’s program is 14–2 in conference play. That is not hype. The matchup advantage for Florida State is circumstance: SMU’s season opener is at Doak, while FSU will already have played New Mexico State. That’s meaningful for a team installing new pieces around Daniels. SMU can absolutely expose FSU if the secondary gives Jennings time, but I think the combination of Doak on Labor Day night, FSU’s running game, Robinson outside, and having one game of live reps swings an otherwise 50/50 contest.
3. Alabama – Sept. 19th [Away]
My percentage chance of a win: 10%
FSU beating Alabama 31–17 last season is precisely why I don’t love this matchup in 2026. Alabama will have that result plastered inside the building for an entire offseason, and now Florida State has to walk into Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is No. 13 in the preseason AP poll and No. 11 in SP+, where its rating is roughly nine points better than FSU’s before even accounting for home-field advantage. The Tide have also deliberately gotten bigger along the defensive front after struggling at times against physical rushing attacks. Daniels’ legs give FSU a chance to create problems, and the bye before Alabama means Tony White and Tim Harris get two weeks to build the game plan. I wouldn’t call an upset impossible. I give FSU roughly one chance in ten, but expecting Florida State to beat Alabama in consecutive seasons is asking too much.
4. Central Arkansas – Sept. 26th [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 97%
Central Arkansas is a respectable FCS program with 11 returning starters, 32 returning lettermen and 27 transfers, so this isn’t a roster devoid of experienced football players. It simply shouldn’t matter. The Bears do have enough defensive experience to make FSU earn things early, but Florida State’s offensive line, backs and receivers should overwhelm them over four quarters. The bigger storyline will be how FSU responds emotionally after Alabama. Good teams don’t spend a week feeling sorry for themselves after losing a marquee game; they put the next opponent away quickly. I’d want to see Daniels out by the middle of the third quarter, Kevin Sperry getting meaningful snaps, and young players such as Jasen Lopez and Kevin Wynn receiving extended work. This should be the easiest game on the schedule.
5. Virginia – Oct. 3rd [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 58%
Do not confuse Virginia with the Virginia teams we grew accustomed to dismissing. Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers went 11–3 last season, finished atop the ACC regular-season standings and fielded a defense that allowed only 19.6 points per game. The problem is that 2026 requires significant offensive reconstruction. Missouri transfer Beau Pribula takes over at quarterback after completing 67.4% of his passes last season, and he’s athletic enough to stress Tony White’s defense. Virginia was picked sixth in the ACC, five spots ahead of FSU, so this is a genuinely dangerous game. But it being in Tallahassee matters. I also like how FSU’s rushing attack matches up against a Virginia team undergoing considerable personnel transition. This has the makings of an uncomfortable three-quarter game; however, FSU’s superior explosiveness finally creates separation.
6. Louisville – Oct. 9th [Away] (Friday Night)
My percentage chance of a win: 41%
This is one of my least favorite games on the schedule. Friday night. On the road. Six days after playing Virginia. Against Jeff Brohm. Louisville is ranked No. 24 and was picked third in the ACC, but there is a reason I still give FSU a substantial chance: the Cardinals lost an enormous amount of offensive production and are turning the offense over to Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who has very little meaningful college passing experience. If this game were in Tallahassee, I’d probably pick FSU. In Louisville, I lean the other direction. Brohm is too good at creating favorable quarterback throws, and Florida State has struggled to consistently play clean football on the road during its downturn. Louisville’s defense should also be good enough to keep FSU from simply running over them. Close game, but a late Cardinals possession decides it.
7. Miami – Oct. 17th [Away]
My percentage chance of a win: 20%
This is the best team on FSU’s schedule. Miami is ranked No. 7 nationally, received 165 of 188 first-place votes to win the ACC, and is coming off a trip to the national championship game. More importantly, this roster isn’t just surviving departures; it may actually be better offensively. Darian Mensah, the ACC preseason Player of the Year, takes over an offense featuring 1,000-yard receivers Cooper Barkate and Malachi Toney and a 1,000-yard back in Mark Fletcher. That’s a nightmare combination for a Florida State defense that will need to generate pressure without constantly exposing the secondary. Rivalry variance keeps me from putting FSU down around 10%, and the Seminoles absolutely have enough skill talent to make Miami sweat. But Miami’s offensive line, skill talent, and overall depth represent the type of roster Florida State is still trying to become.
8. Clemson – Oct. 31st [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 53%
Here’s my upset pick. Clemson is still more talented than its current national perception suggests, and SP+ ranks the Tigers No. 23 compared with FSU at No. 35. But the gap is not enormous; Clemson is breaking in a new starting quarterback with Christopher Vizzina leading the competition, and this game falls beautifully for Florida State. The Seminoles get an open week on October 24 before Clemson arrives in Tallahassee, while Clemson plays Virginia Tech that weekend. That’s a major preparation advantage for Tony White against an inexperienced quarterback. Clemson’s front seven will make life miserable at times, and I expect a lower-scoring game than most FSU fans would prefer. But if FSU enters this game around 4–3, I think Doak is alive, the defense creates two turnovers and Daniels makes one fourth-quarter play with his legs that Cade Klubnik’s successors cannot answer.
9. Boston College – Nov. 7th [Away]
My percentage chance of a win: 65%
This has “annoying game that FSU fans spend three hours complaining about” written all over it, but Florida State should win. Boston College went 2–10 last season, was picked 16th in the 17-team ACC and has a win total around 3.5. Bill O’Brien has essentially rebuilt the offense; Mason McKenzie is expected to take over at quarterback, while the offensive line returns only one starter. The danger is November weather in Chestnut Hill one week after an emotional Clemson game. BC wants this ugly run-the-football game, shorten the game, make FSU convert third downs and hope the Seminoles commit turnovers. That’s why I don’t have the probability in the 80s. But if Florida State can’t beat this Boston College roster, we’re having a very different conversation about Norvell’s future. FSU eventually pulls away.
10. Pitt – Nov. 13th [Away] (Friday Night)
My percentage chance of a win: 46%
This is the game I suspect FSU fans will circle afterward and say, “That was the one.” Pitt isn’t overwhelmingly talented, but Pat Narduzzi has an established quarterback in Mason Heintschel who took over as a true freshman last year and went 6–3 as the starter, throwing for 2,354 yards and 16 touchdowns. Pitt was picked ninth in the ACC, only two spots ahead of Florida State, so these teams belong in roughly the same tier. Unfortunately for FSU, this is another Friday night road game, only six days after Boston College, and late-season trips to Pittsburgh rarely become pretty football games. I expect Pitt’s defensive structure to force Daniels to consistently win from the pocket rather than living off explosives and QB runs. Florida State can absolutely win this and that’s why it’s 46%. But I have Pitt taking a one-possession game.
11. NC State – Nov. 21st [Home]
My percentage chance of a win: 62%
NC State is the kind of team that has tortured Florida State for years, and Dave Doeren probably owns a vacation home purchased entirely with the emotional damage he’s inflicted on Seminole fans. The Wolfpack were picked seventh in the ACC and return quarterback CJ Bailey, so this is not remotely a free win. But this time the game is in Tallahassee, and that’s significant because NC State’s 2025 profile was dramatically stronger at home than on the road. FSU also gets eight days after the Pitt game, while Doak will be hosting Homecoming and Seminole Heritage. From a matchup standpoint, I like FSU’s defensive line against an NC State offense that can become inconsistent when forced behind the chains. If the Seminoles avoid turnovers, this is a game they should control in the second half.
12. Florida – Nov. 27th [Home] (Friday Night)
My percentage chance of a win: 47%
This is virtually a coin flip, and I wouldn’t argue strongly with anybody picking FSU. Florida went 4–8 in 2025, fired Billy Napier, hired Jon Sumrall and lost DJ Lagway to Baylor. Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. are currently battling for the quarterback job. So why am I picking Florida? Because the analytics are much higher on the Gators than their 2025 record: SP+ has Florida No. 19 nationally, 16 spots ahead of FSU, largely because the defense still has legitimate SEC talent. The good news for FSU is that the game is at Doak, and home-field advantage basically turns the matchup into a toss-up. I think this comes down to whether Florida’s new offense is fully functional by Thanksgiving. Right now, before seeing either team play, I’ll give the Gators the narrowest possible edge.
Final projection: 7–5
My most likely path is New Mexico State, SMU, Central Arkansas, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College and NC State as wins; Alabama, Louisville, Miami, Pitt and Florida as losses.
But the important thing is that I see four true swing games: SMU, Virginia, Clemson, and Florida, with Pitt just outside that category. Flip two of those the wrong direction and FSU is 5–7 again. Flip Florida and Pitt the other way and suddenly you’re staring at 9–3. That’s why I think the realistic range is 5–7 to 9–3, with 7–5 the single most likely outcome.